John Deere Classic 2023 Golfers To Bet: Eric Cole, Denny McCarthy

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TPC Deere Run in Silvis, aka Quad Cities, Illinois hosts the 2023 John Deere Classic, which tees off Thursday July 6th. Annually, the John Deere has one of the weakest fields on the PGA Tour calendar and 2023 is no different.

There are nine top-50 golfers in the world teeing it up this week at TPC Deere Run headlined by World No. 19 Cameron Young and No. 29 Russell Henley. But, most of the world's best are preparing or resting for the upcoming trip overseas for the Scottish Open and 2023 Open Championship.

Reigning John Deere champion J.T. Poston is in the field to defend his title. As are 2018-21 winners, Lucas Glover (2021), Dylan Fritelli (2019), and Michael Kim (2018). The John Deere was canceled in 2020 and 2017 champion Bryson DeChambeau is obviously not in the field.

J.T. Poston holds his giant check with John Deere agriculture and turf President Mark Von Pentz after winning the 20223 John Deere Classic.

J.T. Poston holds his giant check with John Deere agriculture and turf President Mark Von Pentz after winning the 20223 John Deere Classic. (Marc Lebryk-USA TODAY Sports)

This figures to be another "birdie fest" like last week's Rocket Mortgage Classic. The average winning score for the past five John Deere Classic champions is 21-under par. TPC Deere Run is a Par 71 course that plays to 7,257 yards with Bentgrass greens, four Par 3s, three Par 5s, and 11 Par 4s.

Speaking of the Rocket Mortgage, I actually profited in that event last week. My guys struggled in the final round but my PGA Tour 2022-23 balance grew by +0.95 units (u) at the Rocket Mortgage, up to -19.45u on the season. The recap is at the bottom of this article.

John Deere Classic 2023 'Starting 5'

Eric Cole

Cole’s only blemish on my John Deere power rankings is his course history. If you removed “course history” from my model, Cole would be 2nd behind Emiliano Grillo in my power rankings.

Cole ranks 119th in this field for total Strokes Gained (SG) at TPC Deere Run because Cole missed the cut in his only other start in this event (2021). This is Cole’s 1st season as a full-time pro on the PGA Tour. Cole was most likely on some sort of “sponsored exemption” in his 2021 John Deere start. 

Cole earned his Tour card with several strong finishes this season. He lost The Honda Classic 2023 in a playoff to Chris Kirk. Cole also finished T5 at the Mexico Open, T15 at the PGA Championship, and T6 at the RBC Canadian Open this season.

Eric Cole reads his putt on the 7th hole during the 1st round of the PGA Championship at Oak Hill Country Club in Rochester, New York.

Eric Cole reads his putt on the 7th hole during the 1st round of the 2023 PGA Championship at Oak Hill Country Club in Rochester, New York. (Scott Taetsch/PGA of America via Getty Images)

His T27 or better finishes in THE PLAYERS, Memorial, and Travelers this season are impressive when you consider those are “elevated events”. Plus, Cole is 3rd in this John Deere field for total SG this season on Tour. 

Over the last 36 rounds, Cole is 9th in my key stat model. He is 13th in this field for SG: Approach (APP), 4th in Par 4 scoring, 9th in Par 5 scoring, and 1st in Birdies-or-Better (BoB) Gained over that span.

Compared to this field, Cole is an elite scorer. Cole is 2nd in this field for total SG at easy courses over the last 36 rounds and 4th in SG: Putting on Bentgrass greens over the last 24 rounds.

1st John Deere roster spot: Eric Cole

Denny McCarthy

This course really fits McCarthy’s game. TPC Deere Run has wide fairways and big greens. McCarthy has the highest “Good Drive” rate and the 6th-highest “Greens-in-Regulation” (GIRs) rate in this John Deere Classic field, over the last 36 rounds.

Hence McCarthy will have a lot of birdie looks and he’s one of the best putters in the world. McCarthy is 4th on the PGA Tour in SG: Putting this season. McCarthy is gaining an average of 5.0 strokes per event on the greens in his last five starts. 

Also, TPC Deere Run is a Par 71 with 11 Par 4s and five Par 4s from 400-450 yards. McCarthy is 1st in this field over the last 36 rounds in both Par 4 scoring and Par 4 Efficiency (EFF): 400-450 yards.

Denny McCarthy plays his shot from the 2nd tee during the 2nd round of the 2022 John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois.

Denny McCarthy plays his shot from the 2nd tee during the 2nd round of the 2022 John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois. (Stacy Revere/Getty Images)

After back-to-back missed cuts at the John Deere in 2019 and 2021, McCarthy finished T6 last year. McCarthy has picked up strokes on the greens in three of his four John Deeres and gained +8.1 strokes tee-to-green (T2G) in 2022. 

Furthermore, McCarthy is on a heater and having a great season on Tour. McCarthy has five top-10 finishes this season and ranks 19th in total SG on Tour. 

He leads this John Deere field in total SG over the last 36 rounds. Those finishes include a T7 at the Travelers, T20 at the U.S. Open, a playoff loss to Viktor Hovland in the Memorial, T29 at the PGA Championship, and T8 at the Wells Fargo.

2nd John Deere roster spot: Denny McCarthy

Chris Kirk

TPC Deere Run has an above-average rate of APP shots from 75-150 yards. Kirk excels with wedges and short irons. Over the last 36 rounds, Kirk ranks 3rd in this field for Proximity (PROX): 75-100 yards, 5th in PROX: 100-125, and 1st in PROX: 125-150.

Kirk had a solid showing last week at the 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic. He finished T14 and cashed a top-20 ticket for me. Kirk’s biggest issue at the Rocket Mortgage was on the greens.

He was 6th in SG: T2G at the Rocket Mortgage and 77th in SG: Putting out of 84 golfers that made the cut. Kirk shot at least -3 in all four rounds at the Rocket Mortgage but couldn’t keep up in that birdie fest. 

Chris Kirk hits his 2nd shot on the 15th hole during the 1st round of the 2018 John Deere Classic.

Chris Kirk hits his 2nd shot on the 15th hole during the 1st round of the 2018 John Deere Classic. (Stacy Revere/Getty Images)

Rickie Fowler won the Rocket Mortgage with a -24 in a playoff vs. Collin Morikawa (2-time major champion) and Adam Hadwin. With that in mind, the Rocket Mortgage has a soft field but it’s actually stronger than the John Deere.

Kirk is one of the few guys in this John Deere field with true win equity. Again, Kirk beat Cole in a playoff at The Honda and Kirk has three other top-10 finishes on Tour this season.

My biggest concern with Kirk here is he’s never finished better than T22 in six career John Deere starts. He’s lost strokes on the greens in four of those events.

That said, Kirk hasn’t played in the John Deere since 2018 and he’s gaining strokes on the greens this season on Tour. Kirk is 5th in this field for Par 4 scoring and 6th in Par 4 EFF: 400-450 over the last 36 rounds. 

3rd John Deere roster spot: Chris Kirk

Emiliano Grillo

He became one of “my guys” after cashing an 80-to-1 ticket on Grillo in his win at the 2023 Charles Schwab Challenge in May. More importantly, Grillo is 1st on my John Deere power rankings.

He is 1st in my key stat model over the last 36 rounds, 3rd in total SG over the last 24 rounds, and finished T2 in his John Deere debut last year.

Grillo has been a terrible putter and a terrific ball striker (BS) throughout his career. In fact, over the last 36 rounds, Grillo is 1st in this field for SG: BS and 2nd in SG: APP.

Emiliano Grillo hits an approach shot on the 1st hole during the 3rd round of the John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run.

Emiliano Grillo hits an approach shot on the 1st hole during the 3rd round of the John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run. (Stacy Revere/Getty Images)

Moreover, Grillo is 32nd in SG: Putting on Bentgrass greens over the last 24 rounds, which isn’t “too bad”. However, last year, Grillo was +4.1 SG: Putting at the John Deere.

Grillo gained +7.4 SG: Putting in his win at the Charles Schwab and is averaging +2.4 SG: Putting over his last five starts. This season on Tour, Grillo has five T7 finishes or better and he was T15 at his last event, the Travelers.

4th John Deere roster spot: Emiliano Grillo

Akshay Bhatia

This is in a lot of ways a "budgetary" bet. I'm sneaking one longshot on my John Deere betting card along with one favorite and three guys in the same tier of odds (3000-3500). 

Yet Bhatia’s terrible putting will most likely keep him from winning the 2023 John Deere eventually. Over the last 24 rounds, Bhatia is 133rd in this field for SG: Putting on Bentgrass greens. Bhatia is -3.6 SG: Putting in his last five starts too. 

Akshay Bhatia walks up to the green of the 4th hole in the 2023 Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas.

Akshay Bhatia walks up to the green of the 4th hole in the 2023 Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas. (Eston Parker/ISI Photos/Getty Images).

But, he is 18th in SG: T2G over the last 24 rounds. And Bhatia makes birdies despite being awful with the putter: 4th in this field for BoB Gained over the last 36 rounds. He is 8th in SG: BS, 12th in SG: APP, and 4th in my key stat model during that stretch. 

Finally, TPC Deere Run is an easy course and Bhatia has played well at easy tracks this season. Bhatia was T17 at Bermuda, T2 at the Puerto Rico Open, and T4 at the Mexico Open. 

5th John Deere roster spot: Akshay Bhatia

Rocket Mortgage Classic 2023 Bet Slip: +0.95u

“Starting 5”

Longshots

Tournament Matchups

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