John Deere 2024 'Horses For The Course', Finishing Position Bets, One-And-Done Pick
You have to be a superfan of the PGA TOUR or a golf-betting degenerate to be interested in the 2024 John Deere Classic. Besides the Mexico Open, this might be the worst field this season. That's mainly because the best golfers on the PGA TOUR preparing to go overseas next week for the Genesis Scottish Open, then The Open Championship in two weeks.
Reigning John Deere Classic champion Sepp Straka returns to TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois, this week to defend his title. Straka went nuclear in the final round, going nine-under to win last year's John Deere. He is one of three players in this field inside the top 30 of the Official World Golf Rankings (OWGR). The other two are Jason Day (No. 28) and Sungjae Im (No. 29).
My golf betting season continues to be an embarrassment. I donked off -3.0 units (u) at the Rocket Mortgage Classic last week with "Erik Van Rooyen to finish inside the top 20" being my only winning bet. As a result, I'm -49.71u on the PGA TOUR in 2024. There's an argument I should throw in the towel, but quitting is for losers. That said, I'm putting on the clown makeup and going back out there.
John Deere Classic 2024 Bet Slip
Horses for the Course
The odds chosen are the best available at legal U.S. sportsbooks.
Denny McCarthy (+2200)
McCarthy was the pre-tournament favorite to win the 2023 John Deere (+1425, according to DataGolf.com) even though it was a tougher field. Cameron Young, Ludvig Åberg, and Russell Henley all played in last year's John Deere. All of them are higher in the OWGR than Straka, the highest-rated player in this field (No. 24).
Denny McCarthy hits a putt on the 18th green during the third round of the 2024 John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run. (Marc Lebryk-USA TODAY Sports)
While McCarthy isn't playing as well this year, he's finished T6 in the John Deere the past two years. He gained 1.37 strokes putting per round and was 12.0% more accurate off-the-tee (OTT) than the field in the 2023 John Deere, per DataGolf.com. Two years ago, McCarthy gained 2.2 strokes on the greens and was 14.0% more accurate OTT.
D-Mac has yet to win a PGA TOUR event, but this is the type of tournament a golfer breaks his maiden. Plus, the John Deere is effectively a "putting contest" and McCarthy is second in Strokes Gained (SG): Putting on the PGA TOUR this season.
BET 1u on Denny McCarthy (+2200) at DraftKings to profit 22u.
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J.T. Poston (+3500)
The Postman won the 2022 John Deere, tied for sixth last season and is playing better entering this year’s John Deere compared. He made the cut in 15 of 17 starts in 2024 with four top-10s, including three "signature events": T5 at The Sentry, T10 at The Genesis Invitational, and T5 at the RBC Heritage.
Last year, Poston missed the cut in five of his seven starts entering the John Deere. Accurate drivers do well at TPC Deere Run and J.T. is 10th in driving accuracy on TOUR this season. Also, -20 is the winning score for the John Deere in most years and Poston plays well in these birdie fests because he is an elite putter.
Bentgrass greens are his best putting surface. Poston is averaging nearly +1.0 SG: Putting per start on the field in his career. Finally, according to Fantasy National, Poston has gained strokes on the greens in four straight starts at TPC Deere Run with +7.3 SG: Putting in the 2023 John Deere.
BET 0.75u J.T. Poston (+3500) at FanDuel to win 24.5u
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Neal Shipley (+8000)
This is a gut-feel bet since Shipley is making his fourth career start on the PGA TOUR. Shipley became the second golfer in the last 25 years after Viktor Hovland to finish as the low amateur in The Masters and U.S. Open in the same year. Golf legends Jack Nicklaus and Phil Mickelson also accomplished that feat.
In his first start as a pro last week, Shipley tied for 20th at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. He was sixth in SG: Tee-to-Green (T2G) at the Rocket Mortgage, per Fantasy National. Shipley gained strokes putting at the U.S. Open and Masters. If he can match his ball striking from the Rocket Mortgage with his putting at those two majors, Shipley can win the John Deere.
BET 0.3u Neal Shipley (+8000) at DraftKings to win 24u
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Andrew Novak (+9000)
Novak has been top-20 in six of his 16 starts this season. This includes three straight top-10s at the Phoenix Open, Mexico Open, and Cognizant Classic, and a T14 at the RBC Canadian Open and a T20 at the Rocket Mortgage in back-to-back weeks. He is 25th in total SG on TOUR this year and 30th in SG: Approach (APP).
The 29-year-old has gained strokes putting in three straight starts and four of his last five, per DataGolf.com. At TPC Deere Run, there are a lot of second shots from 125-150 yards out. Novak is 16th in SG: APP from that distance in 2024. I like Novak to finish inside the top 20, so I figured "Why not ‘sprinkle’ on him winning too"?
BET 0.25u Andrew Novak (+9000) at DraftKings to win 22.5u
- I’m adding a 0.5u bet on Andrew Novak Top-20 (+300) at BetMGM to profit 1.5u.
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Michael Thorbjornsen (+11000)
Thorbjornsen earned his PGA TOUR card the same way rookie phenom Åberg did, finishing No. 1 at the PGA TOUR University. He was T39 in his TOUR debut at the Travelers Championship two weeks ago and missed the cut on the number at the Rocket Mortgage last week.
Michael Thorbjornsen plays a second shot during the final round of the 2023 John Deere Classic at TPC Deere Run in Silvis, Illinois. (Stacy Revere/Getty Images)
While still in college, the Stanford alum earned a sponsored exemption for the 2023 John Deere. He finished T17 and had the eighth-most SG: T2G. Even though I'm not as high on Thorbjornsen as Ludvig, he can contend in his soft field with experience at this course. But, I'm willing to throw a date with Thorbjornsen at this price.
BET 0.25u Michael Thorbjornsen (+11000) at FanDuel to win 27.5u
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Additional Finishing Position Bets
Make placement bets at BetMGM or DraftKings. BetMGM doesn't apply "dead heat" rules ever. DraftKings has top-5, -10, and -20 bets that "include ties" for the 2024 John Deere Classic.
Mark Hubbard Top-20 (+200): 0.75u to win 1.5u at BetMGM
Homeless Hubbs has played better in four consecutive John Deere starts. After missing the cut in the John Deere 2016 and 2017, he was T41 in 2021, T13 two years ago, and T6 last year. And, like Poston, Hubbard is playing better coming into the 2024 John Deere.
Mark Hubbard on the 18th green during the 2023 John Deere Classic. (Marc Lebryk-USA TODAY Sports)
He missed nine cuts before last year’s John Deere but has made the cut in all 18 starts this season. Granted, Hubbard has only two top-20s in non-team events this season: T20 at the Farmers Insurance Open and T4 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-am.
Regardless, he checks the two boxes I'm looking for at the John Deere: Accuracy OTT and putting. According to DataGolf.com, Hubbard has hit more fairways than the field in 13 of his last 14 non-team events and has gained strokes with the putter six straight starts.
Doug Ghim Top-20 (+275): 0.5u to win 1.38u at BetMGM
Ghim ranks fourth in my 50-round model at Bet The Number. Over that span, he is 11th in this field for driving accuracy, 15th in SG: APP, and 23rd in Par 4 scoring. He finished T16 or better in five straight starts earlier this season: T13 at the Farmers Insurance Open, T12 in Phoenix, T8 in Mexico, T16 at the Cognizant, and T16 at THE PLAYERS Championship. Ghim has tailed off since, but the John Deere could be a get-right spot for him.
Patton Kizzire Top-20 (+350): 0.5u to win 1.75u at BetMGM
After a T13 at the Sony Open in January, Kizzire missed six straight cuts. But, he's finished T24 or better in four of his previous five non-team events with a T20 at last week's Rocket Mortgage. Kizzire missed the cut at the 2023 John Deere. However, he finished T16 here two years ago and T11 in 2021.
Patton Kizzire hits an approach shot in the first round of the 2023 John Deere Classic. (Marc Lebryk-USA TODAY Sports)
One of Kizzire's two career wins on TOUR was the 2018 Sony Open. Since he played well in this year's Sony Open, maybe "course history" is a thing for Kizzire. Either way, he is one of the few golfers in this field with true "win equity" and comes into the John Deere in good form.
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John Deere Classic 2024 One-And-Done Pick: Denny McCarthy
After 24 tournaments, I have $11,326,435 and rank 1,458th in the 2024 Mayo Cup One-And-Done league. There are 4,400 entries in this pool and the top 690 get paid. With that in mind, if I can hit three of the six remaining events, perhaps I can sneak into the money. It would take a miracle, but crazier things have happened.
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