Jets Will Get Bill Belichick'd By Patriots Sunday In NFL Week 18
If you're familiar with my NFL stuff this season this picks is a surprise. However, the New England Patriots (4-12) beating and covering vs. the New York Jets (6-10) at home Sunday is my favorite bet in NFL Week 18.
First of all, the Jets gave up last week. They got stomped 37-20 by the Cleveland Browns on Thursday Night Football in Week 17. Browns QB Joe Flacco carved up New York's defense without No. 1 WR Amari Cooper for the full game and No. 2 WR Elijah Moore for most of it.
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Flacco had 9.7 yards after the catch (YAC) per completion vs. NYJ last week. For context, San Francisco 49ers QB Brock Purdy leads the NFL with 6.6 YAC/completion. Plus, the Jets missed 11 tackles vs. the Browns last week. They missed 12 tackles in the four games prior from Weeks 13-16.
Some bettors might think "The Jets have extra prep time for this Week 18 game against the Patriots". But, do you really think New York will be grinding film session to get ready for New England? No way. The Jets are 1-2-3, Cancun.
NYJ's best players are on defense, all of whom will have jobs next year. New England's season has been over for months and the Patriots kept playing hard regardless. They know Bill Belichick will release anyone so they are playing for their jobs.
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Both teams are playing backup quarterbacks and Belichick crushes bad QBs. New England beat the Jets and QB Zach Wilson 15-10 on the road in Week 3. NYJ rushed for just 38 yards in that game and New England's defense is 1st in yards per rush.
New England Patriots LB Anfernee Jennings sacks New York Jets QB Zach Wilson at MetLife Stadium. (Jim McIsaac/Getty Images)
The Jets are starting backup QB Trevor Siemian Sunday. How do we think Siemian will fare against Belichick? My guess is "not well". Especially if New England takes away New York's ground game. Believe it or not, Siemian has a worse QBR than Wilson.
Also, when you remove their win-loss records, the Patriots are clearly the better team. New England is better than NYJ by EPA/play, early-down success rate, yards per play, net 3rd-down conversion rate, and red-zone scoring.
New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick scopes the scene in an NFL Week 3 game vs. the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports)
Furthermore, New England is 30th in luck ratings, per TeamRankings.com. The Patriots have lost eight one-score games and the Jets have lost four one-score games. In fact, I'd argue three of New York's six wins are lucky.
Lastly, the sharper offshore sportsbooks are pricing New England as -2 or -2.5 favorites while the Patriots are -1.5 at the legal U.S. shops. The public is split on this game but more cash is on New England, per Pregame.com. I.e. the professionals are backing the Patriots.