Jaguars Are 'Right Side' Vs. Saints In Week 7 Even If Trevor Lawrence Is Out
A banged-up Jacksonville Jaguars (4-2) team visits an injury riddled New Orleans Saints (3-3) at Caesars Superdome for Thursday Night Football in NFL Week 7. Jacksonville is on a 3-game winning streak, two in London and at home last week. NOLA lost at the Houston Texans 20-13 in Week 7.
With that in mind, short weeks favor the better head coach. OutKick NFL analyst Dan Zaksheske and I disagree here. Dan Z thinks it favors the worse coach. But, since there is less time to process information and figure out a game-plan, I'll take the side of the coach with a proven track-record.
Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence celebrates his TD pass to WR Christian Kirk vs. the Indianapolist Colts at EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Florida.
The biggest injury news entering this game is Trevor Lawrence being "questionable" with a knee. Lawrence has never missed a game and insists to reports that he can play. But, the Jaguars signed QB Nathan Rourke to the active roster so it's a toss-up whether Lawrence plays Thursday.
Since last year, the Saints are 2-8-1 against the spread (ATS) as home favorites with a -4.8 ATS margin. Plus, New Orleans head coach Dennis Allen is one of the worst NFL coaches vs. the spread. Allen is 18-41 straight up (30.5%) and 22-36-1 ATS (37.9%) in his head coaching career ...
Jacksonville Jaguars at New Orleans Saints Week 7
Betting odds for the Jacksonville Jaguars at New Orleans Saints in NFL Week 7.
Regardless, Jacksonville head coach Doug Pederson is more familiar with Lawrence's situation than the media or betting market. Pederson is giving Jaguars backup QB C.J. Beathard 1st-team snaps in practice this week.
Remember, Pederson coached up perennial backup QB Nick Foles in the Philadelphia Eagles' Super Bowl LII victory over the New England Patriots. Pederson was a backup NFL QB himself and perhaps he's a backup QB whisperer.
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Furthermore, the questions swirling about Lawrence's Week 7 status is causing the injuries to the Saints to fly under the radar. The QB of New Orleans's defense, LB Demario Davis, didn't practice all week and is also "questionable".
New Orleans Saints S Tyrann Mathieu celebrates a pick-six with LB Demario Davis against the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro, Massachusetts. (Kathryn Riley/Getty Images)
Defense is the Saints' biggest strength Davis is a top-three NFL linebacker. New Orleans's defense ranks 5th in EPA/play and 3rd in success rate allowed. Davis absolutely matters to the spread. Also, the Saints have cluster injuries on their offensive line.
They will be without their highest-graded offensive linemen, RT Ryan Ramczyk, per Pro Football Focus. Aside from C Erik McCoy, the rest of NOLA's offensive line grades BELOW replacement level. Starting New Orleans G James Hurst and backup OT Landon Young are also out with injuries.
Finally, Jacksonville's defense is underrated. The Jaguars are 9th in defensive EPA/play and 8th in success rate. They have played the Kansas City Chiefs and Buffalo Bills while the Saints have played a cupcake schedule. Jacksonville pass rusher Josh Allen is wreaking havoc on opposing offensive lines and has been a force-multiplier this season.
My prediction: Jaguars 23, Saints 13
Bet 1.1 units ($10 = 1 unit) at PointsBet on the Jaguars +2.5 vs. Saints in Week 7.