Indianapolis Colts 2024 Betting Preview: Bank On QB Anthony Richardson Playing Like A Superstar

NFL 2024 is around the corner with all 32 teams reporting for training camp in mid-to-late July. Last season, I hit 61% of my Circa Million V and NFL playoff sides and totals. I'll preview every team to prepare for the upcoming year, give out my favorite season-long bet, and record projections for each. These are mostly ‘picks’ but I'll tell you which bets are ‘in pocket’. The Indianapolis Colts are the third 2024 AFC South team I'm previewing. 

Besides the Carolina Panthers, Indianapolis was my biggest whiff last year. I gave out Under 4.5 alternate wins for the Colts (+290) assuming they couldn't draft a new quarterback, hire a new head coach (Shane Steichen), and have a decent season, let alone a winning one. Well, "F*** me, right"? 

Indy went 9-8 on a 6.5-win total in 2023. The Colts got stopped on the 15-yard line in a "winner take all" Week 18 loss, 23-19, to the Houston Texans for the AFC South. They did this after losing rookie QB, and No. 4 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, Anthony Richardson, for the year in Week 5. 

Colts QB Anthony Richardson passes the ball against the Los Angeles Rams at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis. (Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports)

Then-backup QB Gardner Minshew took over the offense after that and played as you'd expect a journeyman backup to play. He threw 15 TDs to nine INTs and ranked 23rd in QB Rating, 24th in adjusted yards per pass, and 27th in success rate in 2023. Knowing Richardson is Indy's starter for the foreseeable future, Minshew took his porn Mustache to Sin City. 

So, if the Colts can nearly make the playoffs while starting a backup for most of their games without a star-studded cast of skill-position players and a mediocre defense, perhaps Steichen was a good hire. 

Indianapolis Colts 2024 Odds

Courtesy of DraftKings at 4:30 p.m. ET Friday, July 26. 

• Super Bowl: +6500
• AFC: +3500
• Division: +310
• Playoffs: Yes (+140) | No (-175)
• 8.5 Wins: Over (-105) | Under (-125)

The Colts signed QB Joe Flacco to replace Minshew as their backup, which, despite Gardner somehow making the 2023 Pro Bowl (?), is an upgrade. Otherwise, they didn't add anyone in free agency this offseason. Indianapolis extended two-time Pro Bowl DT DeForest Buckner, fellow DT Grover Stewart, No. 1 starting CB Kenny Moore II, and No. 1 WR Michael Pittman. 

However, I like that the Colts gave these guys raises. Pro Football Focus (PFF) graded Buckner 12th out of 128 eligible defensive linemen in 2023 and Stewart was 22nd. Moore was 18th out of 127 corners and Pittman was 27th out of 128 wideouts, according to PFF. Pittman had career highs in catches (109) and receiving yards (1,152) last season. 

Defensive coordinator (DC) Gus Bradley is back for his third year in Indy. I like pairing an offensive-minded head coach with a veteran DC. In 2023, the Colts were tied for 12th in yards per play allowed and had the fifth-most sacks with the lowest blitz rate in the league. Whether it's guys winning their one-on-one battles or the scheme, something is working. 

With this in mind, the market is too low on Indianapolis's defense. Based on spreads and totals for every regular-season game at DraftKings, the Colts are projected to rank 28th in defense, when I have them anywhere from 10-15. Their offense is projected to finish 17th and that's a reasonable expectation. But, that comes down to Richardson's development. 

For what it's worth, the coaching staff and Indy's beat writers are raving about the WR corp in training camp. Pittman is a stud and second-year slot WR Josh Downs was the 49th-best hideout last year, per PFF. If everything breaks right for Indy next year, it could win the AFC South. Unfortunately, I like Houston and Jacksonville more. 

Indianapolis Colts WR Michael Pittman Jr. scores a game-winning TD in overtime vs. the Tennessee Titans at Nissan Stadium. (Robert Scheer/IndyStar-USA TODAY NETWORK)

Furthermore, Richardson needs to play like a top-five quarterback in year two for the Colts to have any chance of making the Super Bowl. Given how many elite quarterbacks there are in the AFC, I don't see it. I'm using that analysis to also talk myself out of betting Indy to make the playoffs at +140. 

If I had to bet any season-long future for Indianapolis, it would be Over 8.5 wins (-105). The Colts have a 7-10 win range and they are a team I plan on betting often next year, including Week 1 for their revenge game vs. the Texans. My official prediction is the COLTS go 9-8 and finish THIRD in the AFC SOUTH in 2024.

‘Best Bet’ For the 2024 Indianapolis Colts: Anthony Richardson to lead the NFL in rushing TDs (+2700) at FanDuel

Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts is the most relevant comp to Richardson. As Philadelphia's offensive coordinator in 2021-22, Steichen developed Hurts into an MVP contender, who signed a 5-year $255 million extension with the Eagles. Granted, it was a small sample size, but I'm confident Steichen has similar success with Richardson. 

Steichen has insisted that he will use Richardson as a runner this offseason, regardless of his injuries last year. Under Steichen, Hurts tied for sixth in rushing TDs (10) in 2021 and tied for second (13), with Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen, two years ago. Like the Eagles, the Colts are great at run blocking. PFF ranks Indianapolis' offensive line third entering the season. 

Colts LT Bernhard Raimann and RT Braden Smith were the seventh- and fifth-best tackles in the NFL last year. Six-time Pro Bowl LG Quenton Nelson is still one of the best at his position and four-time Pro Bowl C Ryan Kelly was the eighth-best center in football last season. Indy is going to lean into its strength and be a run-first offense. 

All-Pro Colts RB Jonathan Taylor could eat into Richardson's red-zone carries. However, Taylor has missed at least six games in two straight seasons and Steichen invented Philly's Tush Push, which helped Hurts score a bunch of goal-line TDs. Plus, when Hurts ran for 13 TDs in 2022, the Eagles had Pro Bowl RB Miles Sanders in the backfield. 

Nonetheless, I'm betting on Richardson's upside and Steichen sticking with the original plan of using him in 2024 like he used Hurts in Philadelphia's run to the 2023 Super Bowl. 

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