Indiana Will Repeat Last Year's Success Against Purdue

College football and basketball follow a somewhat similar pattern of scheduling. Most teams start with cupcake matchups, and then they might play a pretty tough out-of-conference matchup. Finally, they finish their schedule with conference games. The only major difference is basketball allows them to do tournament games if they want to join one. Football isn't really conducive to a tournament in the middle of a season. We are now at the point in the schedule where they have conference matchups. Tonight we get one between Purdue and Indiana.

Purdue has spent most of this season bouncing between the #1 rank and #2 rank in the nation. They have a good reason for it as they are 15-2 and 4-2 in the conference. They have arguably the best college player in the nation - it can be debated, but he certainly is one that could be considered the most dominant. Zach Edey is averaging 22.3 points per game. There is debate about how good he will be at the next level, but for now, he is doing everything Purdue needs him to do. They can get the ball to him in the post and let him work. When teams start collapsing, he is a decent enough passer that he can get the ball back out to his teammates. Purdue has a trio of guards that are averaging over 11 points per game. They also have five guys that are shooting 40% or better from three. Indiana has to stop this huge force in post, then also needs to cover a team that shoots pretty well from deep. They also shoot well because they can get open shots due to the collapsing defenses. It is simple basketball that has been played for years and years. They have a solid enough defense to contain most teams as well. Their most recent loss came on the road against an inferior Nebraska team. Nebraska was able to shoot 50% from the floor, 61% from deep, and 84% from the line. That's not exactly replicable, but the Boilermakers need to make sure they play better defense than that to allow that effective shooting.

CHICAGO, ILLINOIS - MARCH 12: Zach Edey #15 of the Purdue Boilermakers celebrates a play against the Penn State Nittany Lions during the second half in the Big Ten Basketball Tournament Championship game at United Center on March 12, 2023 in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

If any team has the recipe for how to beat this Boilermakers team, it is Indiana. Last season, they beat Purdue twice. The first was in Indiana, a five-point victory. The second game was at Purdue and they took that game by eight points. The difference now is that Trayce Jackson-Davis is playing for Golden State and is not there to help manage Edey's effectiveness. This season, Indiana has still played rather well. Their losses this season have come against UConn - an embarrassing 20-point drubbing, a blowout by Auburn (they lost by almost 30), a close loss on their home court to Kansas, a 16-point loss to Nebraska on the road, and a road loss to Rutgers by nine points. Indiana has struggled on the road and against top opponents. Only one of those variables is taking place tonight. The Hoosiers do have the personnel to keep up with Edey, and they have home court advantage in this one. Purdue has the edge with guards, but that's not a big deal considering that players tend to shoot worse on the road than at home.

Indiana might win this game outright. Okay, that might be a bit crazy to think. Purdue is, without question, the better team. If this was on the road or on a neutral court, I think the Boilermakers would probably blow the Hoosiers out. Instead, I think that Purdue will struggle in this game and that Indiana can cover this game. I'll take the 9.5 points in this one and hope they can keep it close.

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