Improved Offense Should Happen In Wisconsin Purdue Rematch

Wisconsin vs. Purdue, 12:30 ET

College Hoops has reached the final day of the regular season. There are a number of way to look at this - it has been a fun ride and we've made money, so we can be happy. We can be sad that it is over because now that means all we have left are tournament games. We can be extremely excited because the NCAA Tournament is rapidly approaching. We can even be angry that yesterday's plays were a goose egg, something that hasn't happened much this season. As my good buddy, Geoff Clark jokes, "We are men, we don't talk about feelings." So, let's get into today's play with a game between Big 10 rivals the Purdue Boilermakers and the Wisconsin Badgers. 

Wisconsin comes into this game with a 19-11 record, and an 11-8 record in the conference. At one point, Wisconsin looked like one of the better teams in the nation. At one point, they were 16-4, and had run their record to 8-1 within the Big 10 looking like they'd be a ranked team and dominate. They still probably will make the NCAA Tournament, but something that was once a sure thing is no longer. Even when they were winning they had a fairly difficult schedule, so it wasn't a matter of them having a cupcake schedule then falling apart. I am not quite sure why they started stumbling but they did and haven't really regained their footing as they are just 3-7 over their past 10 games. That has included two matchups against ranked opponents, one against Illinois, and the other against today's opponent, Purdue. In that game, the Badgers only lost by six points in Wisconsin. Most of their losses have been reasonably close, and while that doesn't matter for the standings, it does matter to us sports bettors as we can at least expect them to maintain a competitive effort most of the time. Of course the question today will be how does Wisconsin stop, or slow down, Zach Edey. That's a question for most college teams and Wisconsin can actually answer it better than a lot of others as they have Tyler Wahl and Steven Crowl that they can throw at him. 

Feb 7, 2024; Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA;  Wisconsin Badgers forward Tyler Wahl (5) dribbles defended by Michigan Wolverines forward Tray Jackson (2) in the second half at Crisler Center. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

On the other side, Purdue will get a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament barring maybe a loss today and a loss in their first Big 10 tournament game. Even then, the are still one of the more complete teams in college basketball and will probably be one of the top two teams in the tournament when it starts. For their season, they are 27-3 with 16 wins coming against Big 10 teams and all three losses also coming against their conference foes. Their most recent loss was on the road against Ohio State. I was wrong in that game, as the Boilermakers simply didn't play a very good game. At the time Purdue took on Wisconsin last time the Badgers were ranked 6th in the nation. This game has them completely out of it, but the Boilermakers still ranked second. Honestly, it was kind of an ugly game from both sides. Neither team shot even 30% from deep with Purdue shooting 27.3% and Wisconsin a measly 15.8%. Purdue, as you'd expect, was able to outrebound the Badgers 42-29 in the game. Part of the reason Wisconsin was able to keep it close was because they had six fewer turnovers. Now that Purdue is at home, I'd expect their shooting to improve. It would be hard for Wisconsin's to not as well, but backing kids in a hostile environment is not usually a great strategy. 

I do think that Purdue wins this game and probably covers. They have no reason to take their foot off the gas and should look to remain the dominant team in the conference. For Wisconsin, this game doesn't help or hurt them one way or another. That doesn't mean we wont get effort, but I don't know if they may give up if Purdue gets on a run. The variability in this one makes me a little anxious so I'll stay away from a side. Instead, I think we need to play the total. I'm taking over 147.5 as I think both teams perform better offensively in this one than they have and should both score in the 70s at least. 

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