I'm Lighting Up The NBA Playoffs 2024 Again Thursday With These Two Bets
I'm sending my Indiana Pacers vs. New York Knicks Game 2 breakdown from Wednesday in the 2024 NBA Playoffs to the Basketball Hall of Fame. The Knicks won and covered against the Pacers, 130-121, even though New York All-Star PG Jalen Brunson missed the whole second quarter with a foot injury. And, as I said, Indy PG T.J. McConnell went Under his 10.5-point prop because he only shot one 3-pointer.
Honestly, I'm just firing from the hip at these Game 2 handicaps below. I have a flight out East at 3:30 p.m. ET and I'm still cooking in the lab at 1 p.m. Regardless, I'm killing it in the 2024 NBA Playoffs and still have to get to even, or better, this season. With that in mind, let's win money on the Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks vs. Oklahoma City Thunder Thursday.
NBA Playoffs 2024 Bet Slip: May 9th
The odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing.
UNDER 212.5 in Cleveland Cavaliers at Boston Celtics, 7 p.m. ET
This is an easy pick. Will it win? Probably not. Actually, I don't know. Obviously, I hope so, but if the Celtics punk the Cavaliers Thursday and Boston scores 120+ points, would I be surprised that the Over hit? Absolutely not. If the Celtics hit their offensive peak, all the Cavs would need to do is chip in 90 points-ish and this UNDER is FUBAR.
That said, the betting logic supports my play on Under and I can even add some basketball analysis. For instance, the public loves betting Overs, especially in primetime games, and nearly 70% of the money is on the Over, per Pregame.com. Plus, Cavaliers-Celtics Game 1 went Over the 211 total when Boston hammered Cleveland 120-95 Tuesday.
Celtics SF Jayson Tatum blocks Cleveland Cavaliers PF Evan Mobley's shot by in Game 1 in the second round of the 2024 NBA playoffs at TD Garden in Boston. (Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports)
But, Game 1 had a 90.4 pace and the eliminated Miami Heat played the slowest pace in the 2024 NBA Playoffs at 90.8. Cavaliers-Celtics Tuesday went Over by just four points despite a 74-point first quarter. Boston hit 18 threes and Cleveland shot 11-for-42 (26.2%) from 3-point land. The Celtics are an elite defensive squad and maybe the Cavs can (hopefully) adjust and reduce Boston's threes in Game 2.
Finally, a wise man (me) once said: "Blowouts are where Overs go to die". The Celtics are nearly two-touchdown favorites Thursday. If Boston crushes Cleveland like the market expects, the Celtics will take their foot off the gas in the fourth quarter. A slower pace leads to fewer possessions, which equals fewer points. Or at least that's my logic here.
BET 1.05u on the UNDER 212.5 in Cavaliers-Celtics Game 2 at Caesars (-105). The UNDER is playable down to 211.
- Usually, you want to wait until right before game time before betting Unders since the public likes to bet Overs. Most casual bettors place a wager at the last minute, so we could get a better number by being patient. Unfortunately, for content purposes, I have to lock in a bet upon publishing this article.
_____________________________
Dallas Mavericks at Oklahoma City Thunder, 9:30 p.m. ET
While I might be fake sharp in Cavaliers-Celtics, I will be real square in Mavericks-Thunder Game 2. I successfully backed Oklahoma City in its 117-95 whooping of Dallas in the series opener Tuesday. OKC won three quarters, tying in the first, and out-performed Dallas in all "four factors" in Game 1. In boxing lingo, the Thunder outclassed the Mavs Tuesday.
Well, I'm just going to run it back with the Thunder in Game 2. Oklahoma City's perimeter defense and ability to get wide-open threes are too good to pass up. The Thunder have the second-highest wide-open 3-point attempt rate in the 2024 NBA Playoffs. "Wide-open" is when the 3-point shooter has 6+ feet of distance from the nearest defender.
All of Oklahoma City's starting 5 can and are counted on to make threes. Four of the Thunder's starters hit two 3-pointers a piece. Three of their backups who played at least 14 minutes did too. The bottom line is OKC plays, whereas Dallas wins and loses with Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. They combined for 39 points in Game 1 and the Mavericks got smoked.
Duh. Dallas needs at least 60 from Luka and Kyrie to beat the Thunder, who can survive a bad game from 2023-24 NBA MVP finalist Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (SGA). Granted, if you told me SGA would have a bad game Thursday after placing this bet, I'd be scared s***less. However, I could see OKC forward Jalen Williams and big Chet Holmgren stepping up. Especially at home.
BET 1.1u on the Thunder -4.5 (-110) at Caesars. The Thunder are playable up to -6.
_____________________________
Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my NBA 2023-24 betting record via X all season.