Illinois And Iowa State Offenses Will Duel For Chance At Elite Eight

Illinois vs. Iowa State, 10:00 ET, Thursday

Oh how Sweet it is! The Sweet 16 has some really great matchups. I'm sure people like seeing underdogs and Cinderella stories, but give me the best teams competing against each other every day of the week. Sure, it can be fun when a team like Oakland upsets a team like Kentucky if the game is exciting. James Madison beating Wisconsin was convincing, but then they were trounced by Duke. I have to imagine that Wisconsin would give a better game than James Madison. On Thursday, we get a great matchup as Illinois takes on Iowa State and we are going to get a unit in this one. 

Illinois has put together a great season on the backs of a well-balanced offense. Terrence Shannon Jr. has been one of the best players in college basketball this whole season and has looked great in the first two games of the tournament. So far, he has put up 56 points in the two games as Illinois has taken down Morehead State and Duquesne. They've won both of the games by at least 16 points and looked like they were taking the competition serious in both of the games. Aside from the first half of the game against Morehead State where they went to the locker room up by just one point, Illinois has been in control for most of the games. Shannon is still likely to be the best player in this game, but he probably can't do it all on his own. Luckily for the Fighting Illini they have four forwards that contribute good minutes, strong rebounding, and fairly efficient scoring for the team. What makes it hard about guarding Illinois is that they stretch the floor out with the forwards, and they are also good passers. Iowa State is a good defensive team, but with the space that Illinois creates, it could be difficult for them to stop this team. 

Iowa State Cyclones SG Keshon Gilbert beats Kansas State Wildcats guard Cam Carter to a lose ball at James H. Hilton Coliseum. (Reese Strickland-USA TODAY Sports)

Speaking of Iowa State, they've been a very strong team this whole tournament and have won five straight games. They won the Big 12 Conference Tournament and made it look easy. They beat Kansas State by 19-points, Baylor by 14, and then Houston by 28. Houston, as a reminder, is one of the best teams in the country and a #1 seed in this tournament. Unlike a lot of teams, the Cyclones actually have the personnel to matchup with Illinois. Their forward, Milan Momcilovic, is a good scorer, and has come alive recently. Their guards are not great three-point shooters but are effective scores and they play good defense which will make life tough on Shannon and other Illini players. I do think the backcourt can be forced into some turnovers, but Illinois isn't the best defense in college hoops so Iowa State may be able to effectively run their offense. There is only one game this season where the team has allowed 70 or fewer points to their opponent in a loss. That could be the magic number that the teams are trying to reach in this one as the first to reach 70 probably wins this game. 

This game, as evidenced by the spread, is likely to be a pretty close contest. My advice for a side would be to just pick whichever team you think will win and play the moneyline. Illinois could escape with victory, but Iowa State has been playing such good basketball lately that I'm not confident in stepping in front of them. In this game, I think the best bet is to take the over. Both teams will likely score over 70 points (I still stand by whoever gets their first wins) and I think we could even see overtime. I'm taking over 145.5 in this one. 

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