Ignore NFL Week 15, BET These 2 NBA Games Sunday
I understand most people only bet games they'll watch and everyone is watching the NFL, not the NBA on Sunday. But, if you're an NBA fan like myself or an avid (and responsible) sports gambler, you'll bet some basketball.
Although, based on my record this season, maybe it's better to fade my picks. Regardless, I'm going to bet the NBA daily until the season is over with the expectation of winning. I spend way too much time looking at this stuff, I better start winning.
NBA Best Bets for Sunday
Houston Rockets at Milwaukee Bucks (-7), 7 p.m. ET
The Bucks are just too big for the Rockets. Milwaukee big Brook Lopez negates Houston big Alperen Sengun. Despite Rockets wing Dillon Brooks being one of the best on-ball defenders in the NBA, Giannis Antetokounmpo should manhandle him.
Even Houston PG Fred VanVleet is too small for Bucks PG Damian Lillard. VanVleet is another good perimeter defender. But, he doesn't have the size to contest Dame's stepback 3-pointers or speed to stay in front of Lillard.
Milwaukee's size is going to force the Rockets to pack the paint and the Bucks will have good looks from three. They are 4th in 3-point shooting at 38.4%. This is Milwaukee's 7th straight home game and the Bucks are averaging 136.0 points through the 1st six.
Milwaukee Bucks PG Damian Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo wait for a teammate to shoot a free throw in the inaugural NBA In-Season Tournament at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. (Ethan Miller/Getty Images)
Furthermore, Houston's defense sucks on the road. The Rockets give up 16.0 MORE PPG. They allow opponents to shoot 46.0% from the field on the road (41.4% at home) and 34.5% from deep (28.4% at home).
As of 12:45 p.m. ET Sunday, more action is on Houston, per Pregame.com. The market is probably backing the Rockets here because this is a 2nd of a back-to-back for the Bucks. Yet, Milwaukee beat the Detroit Pistons so badly on the frontend (146-114), Giannis and Dame sat the whole 4th quarter.
My prediction: Bucks 121, Rockets 105
Golden State Warriors at Portland Trail Blazers (+5.5), 9 p.m. ET
I like the Trail Blazers here because key contributors have returned from injury recently for them. Portland PG Malcolm Brogdon, C Deandre Ayton, SG Anfernee Simons, and PF Jerami Grant.
Brogdon is the reigning NBA 6-Man of the Year. Ayton is a scoring big and Golden State has a weak defensive frontcourt now that Draymond Green is suspended.
Simons is an elite outside shooter that spaces the floor for the Blazers. Grant is an underrated two-way player who can defend guards, wings, and forwards and score in many ways. The point being Portland's roster is pretty good when healthy.
Golden State Warriors' All-Star Steph Curry shoots a 3-point shot over Portland Trail Blazers wing Jabari Walker at Chase Center in San Francisco. (Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
Golden State beat the Blazers 110-106 in San Francisco earlier this month. The Warriors were down 55-48 at halftime and failed covering as -12.5 favorites. Plus, Portland was missing Grant and Ayton and the Dubs was at full strength.
Finally, the Warriors cannot shoot inside the arc and Portland's lone strength is defending the three. Golden State is 26th in 2-point shooting percentage and the Trail Blazers is 3rd in defensive 3-point shooting.