If Saints' Defense Crushed Buccaneers With Tom Brady, What Happens To Baker Mayfield Sunday?
Since 2020, the New Orleans Saints (2-1) have shutdown the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1). Over that span, the Saints are 4-2 straight up and 5-1 against the spread vs. the Bucs in the regular season.
New Orleans is out-scoring Tampa Bay 23.3-17.1 in those meetings. And Tom Brady played on those Buccaneer teams. If the Saints can do that to Brady, what does that mean for current Bucs QB Baker Mayfield?
Saints CB Marshon Lattimore, LB Demario Davis, S Marcus Maye, and S Tyrann Mathieu celebrate after an interception vs. the Titans at Caesars Superdome in New Orleans. (Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images)
This year, NOLA's defense is in the top-10 for opponent's yards per play (YPP), 3rd-down conversion rate and red zone conversion rate allowed, and points per play. In fact, New Orleans is 13th in net YPP and Tampa is 27th in net YPP.
The Bucs have two meh wins under their belt. They beat the Minnesota Vikings 20-17 in Week 1. But, really, the Vikings beat themselves with sloppy play. Then Tampa took down the Chicago Bears 27-17 in Week 2.
However, the market power-rates the Bears as the worst team in the NFL through three weeks. Plus, Chicago QB Justin Fields gifted the Bucs a 4-yard pick-six with 2:03 remaining so that final score is misleading.
Buccaneers at Saints odds (PointsBet)
Betting odds for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints in NFL Week 4 from PointsBet as of Thursday, Sept. 28th.
In Week 3, the Philadelphia Eagles humbled the Bucs 25-11 on Monday Night Football. Tampa gained just 12 first downs and 174 total yards. The Eagles were just 1-for-4 in the red zone so that score was misleading as well.
The Saints lost 18-17 at the Green Bay Packers last week. They squandered a 17-0 lead once QB Derek Carr went out with a shoulder injury. Backup QB Jameis Winston led NOLA on a would-be game-winning drive but the Saints kicker missed a 46-yard FG with 1:100 remaining.
SAINTS QB DEREK CARR UPGRADED TO WEEK-TO-WEEK, NOT SEVERAL WEEKS OR THE SEASON WITH SHOULDER INJURY
Carr is "questionable" for Week 4. But, the more consequential injuries are on Tampa's sidelines. The Buccaneers have cluster-injuries on their defense. Both Tampa starting CBs (Jamel Dean and Carlton Davis III) didn't practice Wednesday nor did DT Vita Vea.
Saints WR Chris Olave catches a pass vs. Buccaneers CB Carlton Davis III at Caesars Superdome. (Stephen Lew-USA TODAY Sports)
Even with Winston under center, the Saints have the playmakers to score points vs. the Bucs' banged-up defense. New Orleans wideouts Chris Olave, Michael Thomas, and Rashid Shaheed form a solid WR corp.
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Also, line play is the most predictive stat in football handicapping. Per ESPN, Tampa ranks 24th or worse in pass-blocking and run-blocking win rates on both sides of the ball.
Furthermore, we haven't seen turnover-prone Baker Mayfield yet this season. Tampa Bay's offense has only two giveaways. But, if the Bucs can't run the ball or protect Mayfield, we are going to see the old Baker Sunday.
Prediction: Saints 24, Buccaneers 13