If Astros Don't Beat Rangers In Game 4 Of 2023 ALCS, I'm Done Betting MLB | Geoff Clark

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Feel free to fade me. I'm just here because it's my job to handicap sports. But, I'm getting murdered betting MLB this season including the playoffs. Either way, I'll be watching the Houston Astros (1-2) at Texas Rangers (2-1) in Game 4 of the 2023 ALCS so why not have action on it?

The Astros got back into the ALCS with an 8-5 win Wednesday in Game 3. Rangers RHP Max Scherzer returned from injury Wednesday. But, Houston hit 5 ERs off of Scherzer in 4 IP. Astros All-Star Yordan Alvarez went 2-for-4 with 2 RBIs in Game 3. Alvarez has a 1.37 OPS in this series.

Houston sends out RHP Jose Urquidy for his 2nd start this postseason. Urquidy picked up a win when the Astros beat the Minnesota Twins in Game 4 of the ALDS. He went 5.2 IP, allowing 2 ER on 2 HRs with a 6/1 K/BB rate.

Rangers LHP Andrew Heaney gets the nod for Game 2. Heaney pitched in Texas's 3-2 Game 1 AL Wild Card Series win over the Baltimore Orioles. The lefty went 3.2 IP with 1 ER on 2 H, 1 BB and 1 K.

Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers Game 4

Betting odds for the Houston Astros at Texas Rangers in Game 3 of the 2023 ALCS.

Betting odds for the Houston Astros at Texas Rangers in Game 4 of the 2023 ALCS.

This is Urquidy's 1st start vs. the Rangers in 2023. Heaney pitched against the Astros four times during the regular season. He has a 2.75 ERA over 19.2 IP with 1 HR and 16/11 K/BB rate in those outings. That said, FanGraphs power ranks Urquidy as 34th-best pitcher over the last 14 days and Heaney 50th.

However, both starters are familiar with their opponents. According to MLB Statcast, Urquidy has 85 plate appearances (PA) vs. active Rangers and Heaney has 195 PA against current Astros. Heaney's K-rate is slightly higher (19.5-16.5%) and his expected slash line is better.

Houston's bullpen leads the MLB postseason with a 3.10 xFIP ("expected fielding independent pitching"). Whereas Texas's 5.43 xFIP ranks 10th out of the 12 playoff teams this year, according to FanGraphs.

Astros reliever Hector Neris reacts after the final out of the 8th inning vs. the Texas Rangers during Game 1 of the 2023 ALCS at Minute Maid Park in Houston.

Astros reliever Hector Neris reacts after the final out of the 8th inning vs. the Texas Rangers during Game 1 of the 2023 ALCS at Minute Maid Park in Houston. (Bob Levey/Getty Images)

Strikeouts vs. walks is the foundation of xFIP and is more predictive than ERA. The Astros' relievers have a 28.7% K-BB% in this postseason. The Rangers' have a 6.4% K-BB%, which ranks last in the playoffs.

Texas is red-hot right now but Houston owns the Rangers. The Astros won the regular-season series 9-4 with a +19 run differential (94-73). Also, Houston has a better batting average (.225-.202), on-base percentage (.295-.269), and slugging percentage (.373-.364) than Texas in the ALCS.

Furthermore, the Astros raked lefties during the regular season and is obviously familiar with Heaney, a lefty. Per FanGraphs, Houston's lineup ranked 3rd in both wRC and wOBA and 2nd in BB/K rate vs. left-handed pitching.

My prediction: Astros 7, Rangers 4

A

A "pizza bet" for the Astros (-105) over the Rangers in Game 4 of the 2023 ALCS.