How We Should Bet The MLB All-Star Game

National League vs. American League, 8:00 ET

The mid-season classic has arrived. Last night we had an interesting Home Run Derby - one that had a bit of confusion with format and the way it all worked - but ended with a down-to-the-wire final. I was wrong about Bobby Witt Jr. I didn't think he would make it out of the first round but he was able to make it all the way to the Finals and fell short of the wall on his last out of the bonus time. Personally, I like the time limit and pitch limit, but realistically, the 10 outs was still the best option because you had a chance to hit 30 homers still. With a pitch limit, the maximum homers someone can hit is 40 and that would require them to hit 40-for-40 on those pitches (not counting what they do in the bonus time). In any case, they will probably make more changes next year. We can now move past and focus on the All-Star Game and how to play that. 

The National League is the road team in this one. I wrote an entire article about Paul Skenes yesterday, and he will be the starting pitcher for the National League. I fully expect him to dominate his two or three innings. Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if the guy had nine strikeouts at the end of his three innings. If he only goes two, that's fine too. He's so good, I think he can find a way to strike out nine in just six outs. He will have to navigate a really tough American League lineup. As far as starters for the National League, we have a core of Shohei Ohtani, Trea Turner, and Bryce Harper. That's tough, but probably manageable for Corbin Burnes (the American League starter). The rest of the National League lineup is a little weaker if you ask me. I understand they are all deserving of being on the team, but the lineup just doesn't seem that great. I do think the reserves are solid enough for the National League. Marcell Ozuna is always a threat to hit a homer, Elly De La Cruz will be exciting to watch, and Freddie Freeman is one of the best hitters in baseball. As far as the pitching staff, I think the team will end up using Zack Wheeler and Max Fried to cover the first five innings of the game. Then they will go with a lot of relievers or one inning performances from some starters. 

MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - JULY 11: Paul Skenes #30 of the Pittsburgh Pirates throws a pitch in the second inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field on July 11, 2024 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images)

On the American League side, the team will have Burnes on the hill to start the game. Burnes has been as good as advertised and everything the Orioles wanted in a starter when they traded for him. As I mentioned, the first inning will be his most difficult inning, but I think he can get through it without much damage being done. The lineup for the American League really doesn't have any calm spots. Gunnar Henderson is a very good hitter and has some pop in his bat. Then you have Juan Soto and Aaron Judge. If you've watched a Yankees game this season, you know how tough that is for pitchers to deal with. The 5-8 hitters for the club also all have the ability to hit for power and for average. Again, I don't think they will do much against Skenes, but I do think they should score some runs before they take a seat on the bench. I do think their bench is less impressive than the National League. Most of the power is in the starting lineup, but that means the bench might be able to string together some hits and push across a run. The pitching for the American League will likely go Burnes, then Tarik Sukbal, and I assume Seth Lugo. If that is the first five, the National League should also have a very tough time. The rest of the pitching staff for the American League could manage fairly well. 

If I had to pick a team to win the game, I'd say the National League will win the game, but I don't say it with much confidence. I'd expect the American League to probably win after five innings, but again, not much confidence. I'm more confident that the total will go under 7.5 runs in this game. One of the harder things for the hitters to do is adjust to all of the different pitchers - but the pitchers also have to adjust to coming out of the bullpen. The best bet here is that most of the pitchers won't make mistakes. I'll back the under tonight. 

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