How To Play The SEC Championship Game

Tennessee vs. Florida, 1:00 ET

If you read my article earlier in the week (or last week depending on how you look at Sunday), I shared my favorite plays for the SEC tournament. The longshots that I shared were already bounced, but that's not much of a surprise and I even made that clear in the article. Here's the thing, though - I was very dismissive about one of these teams here and have a future ticket on the other to win. Let's take a look for my recommendation for the game and anyone that tailed me as Tennessee takes on Florida for the SEC Championship.

Tennessee has put together a really good year, but I was a bit quick to say I didn't think they were going to win the SEC Tournament. I kind of still feel that way about them here, but they did prove they belong with a really nice win over Auburn. The biggest drawback of beating Auburn right now is that the Tigers are playing their worst basketball of the season. Should we blame the Volunteers or hold it against Tennessee that Auburn isn't in their best form? No, they still took down a team that I assume will get a #1 seed still. At worst, I think Auburn will be a #2 seed, but that's not for debate here. In the SEC Tournament, Tennessee coasted past Texas, winning by 13 points, and then took on Auburn yesterday. In that game, one that Outkick readers cashed on with me (and hit the under if they played it), Tennessee used a strong second half to win the game. It wasn't like they had a bad first half - they were only down one at halftime. In the second half they built up a 12-point lead before kind of letting is slip away. Ultimately, and obviously, the lead didn't fully slip as they won by five points. 

NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE - MARCH 15: Zakai Zeigler #5 of the  Tennessee Volunteers celebrates in the game against the Auburn Tigers during the SEC Men's Basketball Tournament - Semifinals at Bridgestone Arena on March 15, 2025 in Nashville, Tennessee.  (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

For Florida, it was not the same type of game. They were the team I picked to win the SEC Conference Championship prior to the tournament starting and now we could hedge. Since I am not hedging, I will just share the option here. You're in line to win 2.7u if you hit this Florida bet. You could bet one unit on Tennessee and win .75u (1.75u won, minus the original unit on Florida). To be perfectly clear, Tennessee has the players and arsenal to get the job done. I just think that Florida is a significantly better team. They coasted against Missouri in their first conference game, and it was even less of a sweat yesterday as they took down Alabama. This game probably should've been closer, but Florida really didn't let their foot off the gas. They beat Alabama by 22 points, and the Crimson Tide are certainly a good squad. 

In the two matchups between Tennessee and Florida this season, we can't really glean much from them. Both of them were absolute blowouts. Florida hosted Tennessee for the first one and blew them out (I had that game wrong). In the second game, Tennessee blew out Florida now that they were the home team (I got that game correct). Now, we have the third matchup between the two teams. It is in Nashville, so it is essentially a home game for Tennessee. I think Florida is the better team, and I do think they will win this game. I also think they cover. Florida has shown they can play anywhere (beating Auburn on the road is one of the best wins from anyone this season). In addition, Florida hasn't had to play a tight game. They are rested and ready for this game. For a final reason, just like Tennessee got revenge for the last blowout, I think Florida gets a bit of it here. My recommendation is to take Florida -4.5 if you don't have the future on them already. If you do, just ride it out or hedge as mentioned earlier. 

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024