Houston Will Dominate Cincinnati

Cincinnati vs. Houston, 7:00 ET

The last time I put a play on a game with one of these teams, it did not go well. If my quick review of my records is correct, it was the first loss on Houston that I've had this season. There are some teams I shy away from because I feel like I have a bad read on them, that doesn't seem to be the case with either of these teams though. Basketball has led us to get a lot of money this season and I'm excited to see if we can keep capitalizing on the rest of the regular season before these tournament games get under way. Tonight, we will take a shot on the game between Cincinnati and Houston. 

At this point, you have to wonder if Cincinnati is going to make it to the tournament or not. They started the season with a cupcake schedule and ended 2023 with a record of 11-2. Since then they've gone 5-9, all of the games in conference play. In fairness to them, they had an absolutely brutal schedule to start their conference play. They had six straight games against ranked opponents, and nine of 11 games against ranked teams. That first stretch saw them go 2-4, they won at BYU and on their home court against TCU. Again to their credit, the four losses were against Texas, Baylor, Oklahoma, and Kansas. They lost those four games by a total of 13 points. Maybe they just don't have a closer on the roster that could finish the games out, or maybe they don't have the capabilities to get stops down the stretch. Cincinnati has lost four of the past five games, including two straight games - one against Oklahoma State on their home floor, and one on the road to TCU. They now have to deal with one of the best defenses in the country and a great Houston team. They have a fairly balanced team with five guys scoring nine or more points per game. They aren't particularly good shooters from deep or from the free throw line, but they do find ways to keep the ball moving and get points. 

Houston spoiled what would've been a 3-0 day for me on Saturday. I won't hold it against them as they showed me something that I wasn't quite sure was there. Against Baylor, on the road, Houston pulled out a road victory. What was most impressive in that game was them scoring 82 points. When you think of Houston this year, you think of low scores and a slow pace. 82 isn't a ton of points, but it is good to see they can play at that level and find buckets when they need to. They've only lost three games this season, all on the road. They fell by four to Iowa State, one to TCU, and 13 to Kansas. They've won 10 of their past 11 games and they've won five straight games. They played at Cincinnati on February 10th, winning 67-62. Lately they've almost been teetering on a loss having fairly close games in three of these past five, but I don't think we need to be overly worried about them losing at home. I think they are more likely to lose one of the next two games after this one. Houston is led by their defense, but on offense, the team's engine is revved up by the three starting guards. All of them average 12 or more points and continue to be a solid trio. I think they have what it takes to handle Cincinnati with ease. 

I'd be a bit surprised if this goes over the total, but to be honest, I am a little concerned about betting under with this team anymore. I feel like the line gets so tight on the under there is little room for error. I think the best way that we should play this is to take Houston to cover the spread. They are a talented team and get this game on their home court even at the high -13.5. 

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