How To Bet Houston Texans At Kansas City Chiefs In The 2025 NFL Divisional Round
The Kansas City Chiefs continue their quest for a first-ever Super Bowl three-peat when they host the Houston Texans at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium Saturday in the NFL Divisional Round at 4:30 p.m. ET. This is a rematch from Week 16 when the Chiefs beat the Texans 27-19 at home, covering as -3.5 favorites.
Four days later, Kansas City beat the Pittsburgh Steelers 29-10 on Christmas to clinch the 1-seed and home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. The Chiefs rested their starters in Week 18 and haven't played a meaningful snap since. As a result, this is the healthiest KC has been all season.
Likewise, the Texans rested their starters for most of Week 18, having already locked up their second straight AFC South title. Yet, Houston got waxed by the Baltimore Ravens 31-2 on Christmas and hadn't won back-to-back games since October. Houston's inconsistent play is why it closed as +3 home underdogs vs. the Los Angeles Chargers in the wild-card round.
The Houston Texans visit the Kansas City Chiefs Saturday in the 2025 NFL Divisional Round of the playoffs. (Photo credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images)
Through the first 27 minutes of that game, the Texans looked cooked. But, after a sketchy no-call on what appeared to be an intentional grounding in the end zone, which would have been a safety, QB C.J. Stroud led Houston to a go-ahead TD drive to end the first half. The Texans' defense dominated Chargers QB Justin Herbert in the second half, and Houston won 32-12.
In their rematch Saturday, the Chiefs are -8.5 (-115) at DraftKings with a -455 moneyline (the Texans have a +350 moneyline), and the total is 41.5 (Over -108, Under -112). Of these options, my favorite bet is OVER 41.5 (-108) because this total is too low for a game with Stroud and Patrick Mahomes. I was pissed about not betting Over 42 in Texans-Chiefs a few weeks ago.
LISTEN: 2025 NFL Divisional Round Betting Primer Ft. David Troy
Another wager worth considering is "teasing" Kansas City down to -2.5 at DraftKings and pairing it with the Detroit Lions teased down to -2.5 vs. the Washington Commanders. If the Chiefs win by 3+ points Saturday, you can "middle" by betting the Commanders +9.5 at FanDuel later that night, and scoop the pot if Detroit beats D.C. by nine points or fewer.
I'll have this teaser and the OVER 41.5 in my account. However, I'm also building a "Same Game Parlay" (SGP) for Texans-Chiefs in the divisional round. To be clear, I'm not betting life-changing money on these SGPs. These are just "pizza bets" with fat payouts, where you can bet a little and win a lot.
Texans at Chiefs 'Same Game Parlay' (+1800)
Via DraftKings as of 12:35 p.m. ET Friday, January 17.
- OVER 40.5 alternate total
- Kansas City QB Patrick Mahomes UNDER 24.5 rushing yards
- Chiefs TE Travis Kelce OVER 5.5 receptions
- Houston TE Dalton Schultz OVER 39.5 receiving yards
- Texans RB Joe Mixon Anytime TD Scorer
OVER 40.5 alternate total
I know both defenses are awesome. In fact, Houston's defense is one of my favorite units in football this season. However, Mahomes is the greatest quarterback of his generation, and Stroud has played well in big games since his college days at Ohio State. Last week, Houston looked dead and Stroud resurrected them, and Texans No. 1 WR Nico Collins can make plays against any defense.
I subscribe to the theory that Chiefs head coach Andy Reid "saves the good plays" for big games. Twelve of KC's 16 playoff games in the Mahomes Era (est. 2019) have gone Over 41.5. Twelve of Houston's 18 games this season have gone Over 41.5, including the playoffs. Finally, since "41" is a key total in football because 24-17 is a common final score, I took the 40.5 alternate total.
Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes UNDER 24.5 rushing yards
The Over for these quarterback rushing props is a popular bet with the public because everyone realizes quarterbacks are more willing to scramble in the playoffs. Yet, Mahomes has gone Over this number in just four of his 16 career playoff games. Again, since this is the healthiest KC has been all season, Mahomes has more mouths to feed, aka less likely to have rushing plays designed for him.
In Week 16, Mahomes ran 5 times for 33 yards, including a 15-yard TD run vs. Houston. Hence, the Texans will try to keep Mahomes in the pocket, or at least be more worried about his mobility. Lastly, DraftKings has an "off-market" number for Mahomes' rushing prop. Pinnacle Sportsbook has it at 23.5, and Pinnacle is the sharpest oddsmaker in the world.
Houston TE Dalton Schultz OVER 39.5 receiving yards
The Chiefs will focus their defense on Texans No. 1 WR Nico Collins first, then RB Joe Mixon and WR Tank Dell suffered a season-ending in Week 16 vs. KC. That'll leave target share for WR John Metchie III and Schultz.
A few weeks ago, Schultz had 5 catches for 45 yards and 1 TD against the Chiefs. More importantly, Kansas City allowed the most receiving yards and second-most catches to opposing tight ends in the regular season.
Kansas City TE Travis Kelce OVER 5.5 receptions
Kelce usually benefits from rest at the end of the season and comes into the playoffs rejuvenized. He's caught at least seven passes in KC's first playoff game in the Mahomes Era in five of the last six postseasons. Kelce is averaging 8.5 receptions per game in those contests.
Kansas City Chiefs TE Travis Kelce catches a pass against the Houston Texans at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Week 16. (Photo credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images)
It's been a down year for Kelce, relatively speaking, but he still has 35 more targets than the Chiefs' next-most-targeted pass catcher. Also, I prefer Kelce's reception prop more than his receiving yards prop because Kansas City will call tight end screens or shovel passes around the goal line for him.
Texans RB Joe Mixon Anytime TD
Mixon had 12 total TDs (11 rushing and one receiving) in eight of his 14 regular-season games but didn't get in the end zone vs. Kansas City in Week 16. Regardless, Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans is an old-school guy who will trust Mixon at the goal line. In the wild-card round, he had 25 carries for 106 yards and 1 TD.
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