Houston Texans Will Take A Step Back In 2024 But The Offense Will Move Forward
NFL 2024 is around the corner with all 32 teams reporting for training camp in mid-to-late July. Last season, I hit 61% of my Circa Million V and NFL playoff sides and totals. To prepare for the upcoming year, I'll preview every team and give out my favorite season-long bet, and record projections for each. These are mostly ‘picks’ but I'll tell you which bets are ‘in pocket’. The Houston Texans and AFC South is my first order of business.
To everyone's surprise, the Houston Texans went from worst to first in 2023. After finishing 3-13-1 in 2022, the Texans exceeded their 6.5-win total with a 10-7 record last season. They beat the Indianapolis Colts in "winner take all" for the AFC South in Week 18. Then Houston hammered the Cleveland Browns in the 2024 AFC Wild Card game before getting bounced out of the playoffs by the 1-seed Baltimore Ravens in the divisional round.
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They did this with a rookie quarterback (C.J. Stroud) and head coach (DeMeco Ryans) and the most "adjusted games lost" to injury in the NFL, according to FTNFantasy.com. Stroud had one of the greatest rookie seasons ever and won the 2023 NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year. The No. 2 overall pick threw 25 touchdowns and 5 interceptions with an NFL-high 273.9 passing yards per game and the sixth-best QB Rating (100.8).
Texans QB C.J. Stroud in a 2024 AFC Wild Card game vs. the Cleveland Browns at NRG Stadium in Houston (Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports)
Houston's front office invested in the roster with Stroud on a rookie contract. The Texans acquired WR Stefon Diggs from the Buffalo Bills and signed former Cincinnati Bengals RB Joe Mixon in free agency. Diggs made four Pro Bowls and two All-Pro teams in his four seasons in Buffalo. He was Bills QB Josh Allen's go-to guy as Allen ascended to a top-five NFL quarterback. Mixon had his fourth 1,000-yard rushing season in 2023 and is an upgrade for Houston's backfield.
Like last year's draft, Houston scratched Ryans' back, a defensive-minded coach. The Texans traded up to take edge rusher, and the 2023 NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year, Will Anderson Jr., third overall in the 2023 draft. During free agency, they signed four-time Pro Bowler Danielle Hunter and pass rusher Denico Autry, who had a career-best 11.5 sacks last year, to start alongside Anderson on the defensive line.
With that in mind, Houston is in "win-now" mode before probably having to "reset the market" with Stroud's rookie extension. But, the AFC is loaded and the AFC South is sneaky good. So, what are the appropriate expectations for the Texans, and how can we make money on them this season?
Houston Texans 2024: By The Odds
Courtesy of DraftKings at 2:30 p.m. ET Sunday, July 21.
- Super Bowl: +1600
- AFC: +850
- Division: +105
- Playoffs: Yes (-190) | No (+150)
- 9.5 Wins: Over (-140) | Under (+120)
There's no value in any of these markets. Sure, the Texans got better. Stroud is a legit NFL MVP contender, his offensive line will be healthier, and Houston's WR corp, led by Nico Collins, has a top-five ceiling. However, their division improved this offseason, and regression metrics are working against the Texans.
For example, they go from a last-place to a first-place schedule. Per Warren Sharp, Houston is 26th in strength of schedule (32nd is the toughest) based on its opponent's Las Vegas projected win totals. The Texans were 7-3 in one-score games in 2023, +10 in turnover differential, and had a 9.2 expected win total.
Nonetheless, I was high on Houston last offseason and I don't want to fade them this year. The Texans should win 10+ games as long as Stroud is healthy. He could be anywhere from the second to the 10th-best quarterback this season. Unofficially, I predict Houston will finish 10-7 and second in the AFC South behind the Jacksonville Jaguars.
‘Best Bet’ For the Houston Texans in 2024: Nico Collins to lead the NFL in receiving yards (+2900) at FanDuel
I left myself an out in the introduction by saying "These are mostly ‘picks’ but I'll tell you which bets are ‘in pocket’". Well, this is an actual bet I have in my NFL 2024 portfolio. Originally, I liked "C.J. Stroud to have the most passing yards (+750)". While I still feel strongly this bet wins, the Collins wager has a fatter payout and a similar win probability.
Stroud is rightfully the second betting choice to lead the NFL in passing, whereas Collins is tied for the 11th-best odds to lead in receiving. He caught 80 balls for 1,297 yards in a breakout season last year. Collins ranked seventh in receiving yards per game, third in yards per target, and second in yards per route run (according to Pro Football Focus).
Both he and Stroud played in just 15 games in 2023. If they play all 17 games this season and Houston's offensive line has normal health luck, Stroud and Collins will ball the f*** out. Plus, adding Diggs this offseason helps Collins more than it hurts since opponents won't be able to double-team him with Diggs on the field.
Collins should be in the top-five odds to lead the NFL in receiving yards this year behind Miami Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill, Dallas Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb, Minnesota Vikings WR Justin Jefferson, and Cincinnati Bengals WR Ja'Marr Chase. BET A QUARTER-UNIT on TEXANS WR NICO COLLINS LEADING THE NFL IN RECEIVING YARDS IN 2024.
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