Houston Open 2024 Starting 5, One-And-Done Pick
I don’t want to discuss last week’s disastrous Valspar Championship (my PGA TOUR 2024 record and Valspar results are updated below). Let’s just say it was my worst tournament so far this season. I’m pumped we are leaving Florida and heading to the Lone Star State for the 2024 Houston Open at Memorial Park Golf Course.
READ ‘Par Talk’: Peter Malnati Earns A Win That Feeds The Soul, Justin Thomas' Enemy, And A Not Too Early Look At The Masters
The TOUR adjusted its schedule, moving the Houston Open from November to March this season. After next week’s Valero Texas Open, the PGA TOUR heads to Augusta National for the Masters. I.e. the Houston Open gives golfers another chance to earn an invitation to Augusta. The winner walks away with a $1,638,000 cut of the $9.1 million prize pool.
Native Texan, World No. 1, and winner of two consecutive "signature events", Scottie Scheffler headlines the Houston Open field. Joining Scheffler at Memorial Park is reigning Houston Open champion Tony Finau, 2023 U.S. Open champion Wyndham Clark, Sahith Theegala, Jason Day, and Will Zalatoris.
Scheffler is entering Tiger Woods territory. He is coming off back-to-back wins at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and THE PLAYERS Championship. Because of this, Scheffler’s odds are as low as +250. I won’t be doing this, but this is the first time I’ve considered betting on a "Winner Without Scottie Scheffler" market. It's Scheffler’s world and the other golfers are just living in it.
As I alluded to earlier, my Valspar Championship was a nightmare. Out of the four golfers I bet last week, Maverick McNealy had the best finish by tying for 45th. The biggest favorite I bet (Brian Harman) and my one-and-done pick (Min Woo Lee) both missed the cut. The total damage done was -7.21 units (u), which lowered my PGA TOUR 2024 bankroll to -25.39u.
At the moment, my gambling strategy is to profit 20u for every outright golf winner bet. I'll back that golfer in a placement market (top-5, -10, or -20 finishes) since I'd be heated if one of my guys finished inside the top five and I didn't profit. Shop around for placement bets because most legal U.S. sportsbooks apply "dead heat" rules for ties. BetMGM is a sportsbook that pays ties in full.
Houston Open 2024 'Starting 5'
Stats courtesy of Bet The Number from the Tour Junkies, Fantasy National by Pat Mayo, and the PGA Tour.
Sahith Theegala
Sahith is low-key having a nice season on TOUR. He’s solid throughout the bag but lights out with the putter. Theegala is seventh in Strokes Gained (SG): Putting this season and sixth in total SG. Sahith finished solo second at the Senty in January, solo fifth in the WM Phoenix Open in February, and T6 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and T9 at THE PLAYERS Championship this month.
Sahith Theegala pitches onto the 17th green during Round 2 at the 2024 WM Phoenix Open at TPC Scottsdale in Arizona. (Rob Schumacher-USA TODAY Sports)
If Theegala struggles anywhere on the golf course, it’s around the greens (ARG) and in the sand. But, Memorial Park has the fewest traps of any course on TOUR and Sahith was +5.2 SG: ARG in his last start at the Houston Open in 2022. Plus, Theegala is +0.6 SG: ARG in his career, so I’m expecting him to start chipping well shortly.
The first roster spot for Memorial Park: Sahith Theegala
- Win: +2000 at BetMGM (1u for 20u)
- Top-10: +175 at BetMGM (0.5u for 0.88u)
_____________________________
Keith Mitchell
Behind Scheffler and Clark, Mitchell is the best player in the Houston Open field, according to my 30-round model at Bet The Number. Over that span, Cashmere Keith is fourth in this field for SG: Off-the-Tee (OTT) and third in SG: Approach (APP).
This season, Mitchell has a T9 at the American Express, T17 at the WM Phoenix Open, T19 at the Mexico Open, T9 at the Cognizant Classic, and T17 at last week's Valspar. But, that T17 at the Valspar was misleading. Mitchell had the 54-hole lead and melted down Sunday by shooting 6-over par.
Keith Mitchell tees off during the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play at the Austin Country Club. (Dustin Safranek-USA TODAY Sports)
If you didn't want to bet on Mitchell this week because of the chance that loss lingers, I'd get it. Yet, Mitchell is in great form and perhaps that loss motivates him at the Houston Open. Plus, Memorial Park is a great course for Mitchell. His power OTT and precision with long irons make him a threat to win anywhere. If anything, Mitchell's choke-job last week is giving us a great price for the Houston Open.
The second roster spot for Memorial Park: Keith Mitchell
- Win: +4000 at BetMGM (0.5u for 20u)
- Top-20: +150 at BetMGM (1u for 1.5u)
_____________________________
Tom Hoge
Hoge was -8 heading into the weekend of THE PLAYERS in his last start before shooting 75s in the third and fourth rounds. He finished T57 because he kept driving the ball into the water.
However, there is less water in play OTT at Memorial Park. It’s still a driver-heavy course but Hoge gained strokes OTT in five starts before THE PLAYERS.
Tom Hoge putts during the second round of the 2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. (Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports)
Since it’s less likely he drives himself out of the tournament at Memorial Park, I like Hoge’s chances here. Over the last 20 rounds, Hoge leads the field in SG: APP and APP shots from 175+ yards, per Bet The Number.
Finally, Hoge is hit-or-miss with the putter. But, he’s gained strokes on the greens in eight of his nine starts this season, including +1.45 SG: Putting per round at THE PLAYERS last week.
The third roster spot for Memorial Park: Tom Hoge
- Win: +5000 at FanDuel (0.4u for 20u)
- Top-20: +188 at BetMGM (0.75u for 1.4u)
_____________________________
Billy Horschel
This is a weak field and Horschel is one of the few golfers playing this week with "true win equity". He's won seven PGA TOUR events in his career. Granted, Horschel's most recent win was the 2022 Memorial Tournament but at least he's a proven winner.
Billy Horschel clinches the win of the 2022 Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio. (Kyle Robertson/Columbus Dispatch/USA TODAY NETWORK)
Also, Horschel is off to a solid start this season. He finished T9 at the Cognizant and T12 at the Valspar earlier this month. Billy Ho is eighth in total SG on TOUR in 2024, seventh in greens-in-regulation rate, ninth in bogey avoidance, and 17th in SG: Putting.
The fourth roster spot for Memorial Park: Billy Horschel
- Win: +6500 at FanDuel (0.31u for 20u)
- Top-20: +200 at BetMGM (0.69u for 1.38u)
_____________________________
Andrew Novak
Only Scheffler and longshots have won on TOUR this season. With that in mind, I wanted to add one 100-to-1 or higher golfer to my Houston Open betting card. Based on how he's played recently, Novak is undervalued. He's 11th in total SG this season, 11th in SG: APP, and 14th in SG: Around-the-Green (ARG).
Andrew Novak chips onto the third green during the third round of the WM Phoenix Open. (Rob Schumacher/The Republic/USA TODAY)NETWORK
His strong ARG-play works at Memorial Park because of the tough green complexes with false fronts and shaved runoffs. Finally, Novak has three consecutive top-10 finishes in Phoenix, Mexico, and at the Cognizant and finished T17 at the Valspar last week.
The fifth roster spot for Memorial Park: Andrew Novak
- Win: +11000 at FanDuel (0.18u for 20u)
- Top-20: +300 at BetMGM (0.33u for 1u)
_____________________________
Houston Open 2024 One-And-Done Pick: Keith Mitchell
Through the first 11 events of the 2024 Mayo Cup (the One-And-Done contest I entered this season), I'm tied for 521nd out of 4,400 entries with $6,336,494 collected. If my one-and-done league ended today, I would've profited $200 on my $200 entry.
Previous Picks
- J.T. Poston for the Sony Open: 6th for $300,875
- Xander Schauffele for the American Express: T3 for $635,600
- Sahith Theegala for the Farmers Insurance Open: T64 for $19,080
- Jordan Spieth for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: T39 for $70,125
- Tom Kim for the WM Phoenix Open: T17 for $125,400
- Collin Morikawa for the Genesis Invitational: T19 for $251,400
- Taylor Pendrith for the Mexico Open: Missed cut for $0
- Tom Hoge for the Cognizant Classic: T28 for $59,014
- Scottie Scheffler for the Arnold Palmer Invitational: 1st for $4,000,000
- Hideki Matsuyama for THE PLAYERS Championship: T6 for $875,000
- Min Woo Lee for the Valspar Championship: Missed cut for $0
My choices are limited here. I've already used Theegala, Scheffler, and Hoge. Finau will be very popular since he's the reigning Houston Open champion. I'm saving Clark and Zalatoris for a major or "signature event". Again, Mitchell ranks third on my Bet The Number model, so it's not the worst thing in the world to settle on Cashmere Keith.
_____________________________
Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll be adding bets to my PGA Tour 2024 betting record via X all season.