Can Houston Get Revenge Monday Or Will Texas Tech Beat The Cougars Again?
The #5 Houston Cougars (23-4, 15-1 Big XII) face the #9 Texas Tech Red Raiders (21-6, 12-4 Big XII) in their second regular-season meeting this year. As +10 underdogs, Texas Tech upset Houston 82-81 in overtime on the road February 1. I profited from this game by betting the Red Raiders for the same reason I'm doing so again Monday: TTU has a better shot profile.
According to Bart Torvik, the Red Raiders have better margins of "dunk," "Close 2-pointers," "Farther 2-pointers," and 3-point-attempt (3PAr) shares than the Cougars. Meaning, Texas Tech gets more dunks, layups, and 3-pointers than their opponents and Houston takes 12.0% more "Farther 2-pointers," the least efficient shot in basketball.
The Cougars have a six-game winning streak, most recently beating #8 Iowa State Saturday. TTU crushed West Virginia 73-51 Saturday but lost to TCU and #19 Arizona in two of their last five games. Houston beat the brakes off Texas Tech in their two meetings last season: 77-54 and 82-59.
Houston Cougars at Texas Tech Red Raiders Odds (DraftKings)
- Moneyline: Houston (-122) | TEXAS TECH (+102)
- Spread: Cougars -1.5 (-112) | RED RAIDERS +1.5 (-108)
- Total — 130.5 — Over (-110) | Under (-110)
Houston Cougars forward J'Wan Roberts gets his shot blocked at the rim by Texas Tech Red Raiders big Federiko Federiko and forward Darrion Williams at Fertitta Center. (Photo Credit: Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images)
The Red Raiders hit seven more 3-pointers and seven more free throws than the Cougars in Houston earlier this month. Texas Tech went 12-for-30 (40.0%) from behind the arc in that game and the Cougars made 5-of-12 (35.7%) 3-pointers. Houston's 3-point rate goes from 43.3% at home to 35.1% on the road, per Torvik, while Texas Tech shoots well anywhere it plays.
Furthermore, the Cougars are 339th nationally out of 363 D1 programs in offensive free-throw-attempt rate and 251st defensively, according to Ken Pom. The Red Raiders should win the 3-point and free-throw battles again Monday since they are playing at home. Players are comfier shooting in their home gyms and teams get more calls at home.
Also, Texas Tech won at Houston despite its PF J.T. Toppin, and head coach Grant McCasland getting ejected in the first four minutes due to a sketchy Flagrant 2 foul call. Toppin leads the team in points (17.3) and rebounds (9.3) per game. He might win Big XII Player of the Year while leading the conference in Win Shares and PER.
Lastly, according to college basketball insider Jon Rothstein Monday morning, more than three-fourths of the betting action is on the Cougars. There is a "gambler's fallacy" with most bettors assuming TTU won't beat Houston, a perennial national title contender, twice in the same season. Nonetheless, the Red Raiders get better looks, and the public is ignoring that.
Prediction: Texas Tech 70, Houston 66
- I lied about "retiring" from betting on college basketball until March Madness, obviously. Regardless, I'm risking 1.08 units on the Red Raiders +1.5 (-108) via DraftKings because that where I found the best price for Texas Tech.
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