Hot Links: Sony Open 2024 Best Bets, One-And-Done
The PGA Tour sticks around Hawaii another week for the Sony Open 2023 at Waialae Country Club in Honolulu. Residing in Hawaii is the only similarity between the Sony Open at Waialae and last week's Sentry at Kapalua Resort.
Kapalua is a "bomber's paradise" and Waialae is positional course that generally favors accuracy more than distance. Waialae is a Par-70 track that measures 7,044 yards with Bermuda grass greens. Kapalua also has Bermuda grass but is a Par-73 course over 7,500 yards.
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This is a stronger Sony Open field than most seasons. Fifteen of the top 40 in the Official World Golf Rankings (OWGR) tee it up at Waialae this week. This includes defending Sony Open champion Si Woo Kim who we cashed an outright ticket on at 45-to-1.
HONOLULU, HAWAII - JANUARY 15: Si Woo Kim of South Korea poses with the trophy after putting in to win on the 18th green during the final round of the Sony Open in Hawaii at Waialae Country Club on January 15, 2023 in Honolulu, Hawaii. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)
I'm still butt-hurt about the Sentry 2024 but, for transparency purposes, I did lose -5.33 units (u) at Kapalua last week. Xander Schauffele puked all over himself Sunday. Tom Kim never got it going. Wyndham Clark waited until the final round to play well.
Heads up: I'll be building my models with the tools from BetTheNumberGolf.com courtesy of my friends from Tour Junkies. Unless otherwise noted, all the stats used will be from that website.
My plan is to profit 20 units (u) for every outright golf winner bet. I'll back that golfer in a placement market (top-5, -10 or -20 finishes) to earn 1u on top of the outright wager. Since BetMGM is the only sportsbook that pays ties in full, that's where I'll make my placement bets.
Sony Open 2024 'Horses for the Course'
Ludvig Åberg
My golf betting New Year's resolution is to bet more favorites. Åberg is atop the odds board with Matthew Fitzpatrick and Tyrrell Hatton. However, my model supports Åberg's price a lot more than Fitzpatrick's and Hatton's.
Åberg is the 2nd-highest ranked golfer in my 40-round model. He leads the field in Strokes Gained (SG): Off-the-Tee (OTT), Par 4 scoring, and Birdies-or-Better (BoB) rate over that span. My initial fear with backing Åberg at Waialae was course fit.
Ludvig Åberg waves to the crowd after winning The RSM Classic 2023 on the Seaside Course at the Sea Island Resort in, Georgia. (Alex Slitz/Getty Images)
But, that's what held me back from betting Åberg at The RSM Classic 2023 at Sea Island Golf Club in November. Sea Island is a short, positional course that Åberg overpowered. BetTheNumberGolf.com gives Waialae a "Bomber's Paradise" score of 5.4 out of 10 and Sea Island just 0.4.
Finally, Åberg gets away with being mediocre with his irons since he's an elite putter and so long OTT. In fact, he won the RSM Classic despite ranking 95th in the field at SG: Approach (APP). At Waialae, most APP shots are from 150-200 yards out. Åberg ranks 11th in this field in APP shots from 150-200 over the last 40 rounds.
1st thoroughbred for Waialae: Ludvig Åberg
J.T. Poston
The driver is Poston's worst club in the bag. Over his last nine events, Poston is averaging -0.31 SG: OTT per round vs. the field. Yet, he's finished T7 or better in six of those tournaments. But, the past five winners of the Sony Open aren't long OTT either.
More importantly, Poston might be the best putter in the field. He ranks 8th in SG: Putting on Bermuda grass greens over the last 40 rounds. Poston has gained at least two strokes on the field putting in eight of his last nine events.
J.T. Poston lines up a putt on the 4th green during the final round of the 2023 Sony Open at Waialae Country Club in Honolulu, Hawaii. (Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
Poston ranks 3rd in my 40-round model, 6th in SG: APP, and 5th in Par 4 scoring and he has true "win equity". He is a two-time winner on the Tour including the 2019 Wyndham Championship, which is played at a comp course to Waialae.
2nd thoroughbred for Waialae: J.T. Poston
Adam Svensson
Oddsmakers know Svensson's game fits Waialae. The 27th-best player in the field by the OWGR but has the 16th-best odds to win the Sony Open.
Furthermore, Svensson is 4th in my 40-round model and solid throughout the bag. Svensson is 17th in driving accuracy, 12th in SG: APP, and 8th in both BoB rate and Par 4 scoring over that span.
Adam Svensson hits a tee shot during the 2nd round of the 2023 Sony Open at Waialae. (Harry How/Getty Images)
His won The RSM Classic in 2022. Again, the RSM is played at a comp course to Waialae. Svensson finished T5 in defense of his RSM Classic title in November and T7 at the 2022 Sony Open.
Finally, the Canadian has finished inside the top-20 five times over his last nine stats. This includes at T7 at the Wyndham in November and a T15 at the BMW Championship in the FedExCup Playoffs last season.
3rd thoroughbred for Waialae: Adam Svensson
Sony Open 'One-And-Done' Pick: J.T. Poston
A "One-And-Done" league in golf is like a survivor pool in the NFL. You pick one golfer for every event and accumulate the prize money that golfer gets in said event. The person with the most prize money at the end of the season wins the league.
Even though I'm spending a pretty penny on Åberg, I'm going to use Poston at Waialae because I want to save Åberg for a major or "signature event". It would be reckless for me to use Poston at a major or signature event.
The other options to consider are Fitzpatrick, Hatton, Eric Cole, or Russell Henley. Fitzpatrick and Hatton are the most accomplished golfers in the field. Cole is the 2023 Rookie of the Year on the PGA Tour. Henley won the 2013 Sony Open and his game fits Waialae perfectly.