The Home Team Should Cover Against Underperforming USA

USA vs. France, 3:30 ET

The Olympic Gold Medal Basketball game is set between Team USA and host country, Team France. I was speaking with a friend the other day and he was asking if the players even care about the Olympics considering they make so much money anyway. I think all players on all teams care about these games - not necessarily for country pride, but if you've made it to the NBA you have to at least be a little competitive. The other players will never play on a bigger stage than this. And, as far as international basketball this game today is as big as it gets. 

To this point, the Olympics and all previous warm-up games were cakewalks for Team USA, right? Yes, it was hard to even sarcastically write that sentence. If you've followed the Olympics, or even just Team USA, you have heard about how this is the most talented roster ever assembled. They have multiple MVPs, champions, and players routinely considered top-10 players in the league. So, how has this team struggled so much? While there is no singular thought on the matter, I think there are a few things that at least indicate why it hasn't been a walk in the Parisian park. First, every team is going to go all out to beat Team USA. They are the best team out there, other teams are expected to lose so they don't have any real pressure. If you watched that game against Serbia, the Serbian team was playing lose and free… until the fourth quarter. The defensive intensity stepped up for Team USA and the Serbian team knew they were so close to the upset, they started forcing bad shots and missing wide open ones. Only one player on that roster had ever played in a game with real meaningful stakes. Nikola Jokic was the only guy who had been tested in this situation. Another reason for the struggle with Team USA is their defense. Jrue Holiday and Derek White are the only two players on the roster that are more role players than superstars. Teams need role players and "little guys" to do the things everyone else doesn't want to. Kudos here to Devin Booker who has played tougher defense and been more willing to accept a role player role than anyone else on the team. The final reason for the struggles is that the superstars are typically playing 36 minutes per game. Now they all need to impact the game in 20 minutes. This goes back to the role player idea, but they can't all get into a rhythm in that short of a time. Steph Curry was great in the last game, but he was in a rhythm, and the team needed to work to find him late in the game. Kevin Durant stepped up and scored when needed as well. Even Joel Embiid finally looked like a key component on the team. Even with the issues, the team has found a way to get to the Gold Medal game. One more and they win. 

PARIS, FRANCE - AUGUST 06: LeBron James (6) of USA is injured after a position and his face bled during the quarterfinal between USA and Brazil on day eleven of the Olympic Games Paris 2024 at Bercy Arena on August 06, 2024 in Paris, France. (Photo by Mehmet Murat Onel/Anadolu via Getty Images)

The best quarter of basketball Team USA has played was the fourth quarter last game. Their defense was intense. Durant was guarding full court. Booker was pressing and being physical. LeBron tried to take Jokic as the primary defender. It wasn't just the offense that stepped up, they were hounding the Serbian players. It isn't sustainable for an entire game (it is, but they aren't likely to do it), but maybe they can do it in spurts against this French team. Team France should expect a motivated Team USA team. Normally, I'd say that this would be a letdown game from a team because of the emotion that went into winning the last game. However, in this case, I think this was a very large wake up call for USA. Even with the emotional toll and the sigh of relief that the roster went through, Team USA should come out looking to establish dominance from the start and potentially try and coast from there. In order to stop that from happening, Team France will need to shoot well from deep. That was the big area that Team Serbia kept stopping the Team USA runs with. The guards for Team France are not that good, but the interior presence could be enough to at least keep pace with Team USA.

I really don't think Team France has a legitimate shot at winning this game, but I think giving them 16 points is too many to pass up. They've shown that they are well coached and more balanced than I expected. Team USA has shown they like to "play with their food." When it matters most, Team USA shows that they are still the best in the world. The biggest problem is they can't do it for 40 minutes. 10 minutes was a bit of a stretch for them. While the outside shooting from Serbia was better than expected, France also will certainly have the crowd on their side. I have to take the 16 points in this one. We should know after one quarter if this will cash or not. If the USA comes out and plays with intensity, they will win by 25 or more. If they are slow out of the gate, France will be able to stick with them and we will cash. Looking at Team USA -4.5 in the first quarter should be a decent play as well. 

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