Heat-Celtics Among 3 NBA Thursday 'Rivalry Week' Best Bets
Thank god. After getting my teeth kicked in betting the NBA over the past week or so, I finally had a winning night Wednesday. Granted, there's still work to do as I'm -2.96 units (u) in the Association this season. I'm just happy I'm heading in a positive direction as NFL conference championship weekend approaches.
It's still "Rivalry Week" in the NBA, which may mean nothing to most people. And I get why. The NBA's load management BS has completely killed its regular season. Regardless, there are a few intriguing matchups and I have three ...
NBA Thursday Best Bets
Minnesota Timberwolves at Brooklyn Nets (+3.5), 7:30 p.m. ET
Everyone is going to bet the T-Wolves Thursday. They are 5th in net rating and the Nets are 21st. In fact, per Pregame.com, more than 80% of the action as of 12:30 p.m. ET Thursday is on Minnesota.
Yet, the Timberwolves went from a -4.5 favorite on the opener to -3.5 despite the one-way action. Typically, I try to avoid the "betting splits voodoo.” However, the oddsmakers or sharp bettors are making Minnesota cheaper for a reason.
But, Brooklyn is 9th in 3-point attempt rate (3PAr) and can play T-Wolves big Rudy Gobert off the floor. Minnesota's biggest strength is its defense. The Nets can run out a few lineups with five 3-point shooters.
Without Gobert out there, the Timberwolves allow 6.9 more points per 100 possessions in non-garbage time, per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG). Minnesota's defensive effective field goal shooting, which blends 2- and 3-point shooting, goes from 48.9% at home to 53.6% on the road.
Nets wing Mikal Bridges drives past Minnesota Timberwolves SG Nickeil Alexander-Walker at Barclays Center in Brooklyn. (Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports)
Also, this is the 2nd of a back-to-back (B2B) for the T-Wolves who beat the Washington Wizards 118-107 Wednesday. The Nets are 4-1-1 against the spread (ATS) with a rest edge over their opponents.
The Timberwolves took a humiliating loss at home Monday to the Charlotte Hornets. They also "played with their food" against the Wizards and only covered their -10.5 spread by a half-point.
Brooklyn lost B2B games outright and ATS vs. the Los Angeles Clippers Sunday and the New York Knicks Tuesday. But, both were "bad beats". The Nets led for 35:45 against the Knicks and roughly 45 minutes vs. the Clippers.
My prediction: Nets 113, Timberwolves 110
Boston Celtics at Miami Heat (+8), 7:30 p.m. ET
I cannot help myself but I'm a sucker for Heat Culture. Their 24-20 record is misleading. Miami is 17th in net rating at -0.1 and have a +3.1 win differential, according to CTG. Meaning, the Heat have three more wins than they should based on net efficiency.
Miami upset Boston in the 2023 Eastern Conference Finals 4-3. The Celtics sort of got revenge with a 119-111 win over the Heat in their 1st meeting this season October 27th. But, Miami covered as +9.5 underdogs. These teams split the four quarters and "four factors.”
Boston Celtics SF Jayson Tatum drives to the basket on Heat big Bam Adebayo during Game 7 of the 2022 NBA Eastern Conference Finals in Miami. (Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports)
That said, my biggest concern here is the Heat playing the 2nd of a B2B. They lost to the Memphis Grizzlies 105-96 Wednesday, extending Miami's losing skid to four games. Heat SF Jimmy Butler is one of the biggest load-management dudes in the NBA.
Finally, Miami shoots much better in their home gym and Boston shoots worse on the road. The Heat's 3-point shooting climbs from 35.4% on the road to 40.5% in South Beach. While the Celtics shoot 39.9% from behind the arc in Boston and 35.8% on the road.
My prediction: Celtics 117, Heat 113
Sacramento Kings at Golden State Warriors (+2), 10 p.m. ET
This is the 2nd of a B2B for the Warriors who beat the Atlanta Hawks 134-112 at home Wednesday. But, Golden State is coming off a long break after postponing couple of games due to the tragic death of assistant coach Dejan Milojević.
Obviously, it's a terrible situation. However, this tragedy will be motivation for the Warriors. There's been a lot of drama surrounding this teams and this gives Golden State something to rally around. Plus, the 8-day layoff keeps the Dubs well rested.
Furthermore, the Kings have a better win-loss record but, from a net efficiency standpoint, these are equal teams. DunksAndThree.com factors in strength of schedule. Sactown has a +0.5 adjusted net rating on that site and Golden State is +0.4 at that website.
Lastly, the Warriors have the best defensive shot quality in the NBA, according to CTG. Whereas the Kings are 29th in defensive 3-point shooting percentage, which is a bad thing when you're facing the Splash Brothers, Steph Curry and Klay Thompson.