Heat Are Live 'Dogs Vs. Celtics In Game 1 Of 2023 ECF
The 8-seed Miami Heat and 2-seed Boston Celtics meet in Game 1 of an Eastern Conference Finals (ECF) rematch from last year that no one expected to see.
Boston was the preseason favorite to represent the East in the NBA Finals. Whereas Miami's season was on the brink after losing its first play-in game.
Heat SF Jimmy Butler drives against Boston Celtics SF Jayson Tatum during the 3rd quarter of Game 7 of the NBA Eastern Conference Finals. (David Santiago/Miami Herald/Tribune News Service via Getty Images)
It took the Celtics seven games to get past the Heat in the 2022 ECF. But, Miami was the 1-seed in last year's playoffs and Boston has a home-court advantage in the 2023 ECF.
Boston went the distance with the Philadelphia 76ers in the 2023 Eastern Conference Semifinals and Miami took care of the New York Knicks in six games.
Heat at Celtics Game 1 (DraftKings Sportsbook)
Betting odds for the Miami Heat at Boston Celtics in Game 1 of the 2023 Eastern Conference Finals as of 11:15 a.m. ET Wednesday, May 17th.
First of all ...
Teams coming off a Game 7 win usually struggle in Game 1 of the next series
Teams after winning a Game 7 are 22-38 straight up (SU), and 24-35-1 against the spread (ATS) in the following game since 2003. Home teams are 11-13 SU (46%) and 7-16-1 ATS (30.4%) in that span.
More importantly ...
The Heat have the best player and a coaching edge
Playoff Jimmy Butler has the highest PER (ranked 3rd), Win Shares per 48 (2nd), and box +/- (4th) out of any player in this series. Butler was the best player in last year’s Heat-Celtics Eastern Conference Finals (ECF) as well.
Miami Heat SF Jimmy Butler and Bucks PG Jrue Holiday exchange words during Game 5 of the Eastern Conference First Round Playoffs at Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Stacy Revere/Getty Images)
He averaged a series-best 25.6 points per game (PPG) with a +17 net rating vs. Boston in that series. Butler had the most points in four of the seven games of the 2022 ECF including 41- and 47-point outings.
We are getting our yearly reminder that Heat’s Erik Spoelstra is the best coach in the NBA. Spoelstra has put on a coaching clinic in these playoffs. The Bucks fired their head coach after the Heat upset them in the 1st round.
Miami vets PG Kyle Lowry and PF Kevin Love have as much playoff experience as anyone in this series and are “coaches on the floor”.
Heat PG Kyle Lowry and coach Erik Spoelstra strategize during a game vs. the Boston Celtics at Miami-Dade Arena in Miami. (Issac Baldizon/NBAE via Getty Images)
Furthermore, Boston’s 1st two opponents in these playoffs — the Hawks and Sixers — are not as aggressive defensively as Miami ...
Boston’s ball security is an issue vs. Miami
The Celtics averaged 18.8 turnovers per game against the Heat this season while Boston threw just 13.4 turnovers per game during the regular season. Miami is averaging an NBA-best 20.4 PPG off of turnovers this postseason.
In their regular-season meetings, the Heat out-scored the Celtics 76-58 in points off of turnovers. That’s 4.5 PPG, which could be the difference between Boston covering or not covering as -8 favorites.
Miami is the toughest defense Boston will face
During the regular season, the Heat allowed the 2nd-fewest paint PPG. Plus, Butler and Miami big Bam Adebayo are two of the best defenders in the NBA. Lowry is a menace and the biggest flopper in the NBA.
Butler and Adebayo celebrate in the 2nd half of Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Semifinals vs. the New York Knicks at Madison Square Garden. (Elsa/Getty Images)
Celtics PG Marcus Smart and SF Jaylen Brown frequently make poor decisions with the ball or dribble into traffic. Also, I’d argue Boston’s offense is pretty straightforward: The Celtics chuck 3s.
They dribble and drive to kick it out to the perimeter for threes. These teams are familiar with one another and Spoelstra can devise ways to mitigate Boston’s 3-point prowess.
With that in mind ...
The Heat can compete in a 3-point shootout
The Celtics have the 2nd-worst wide-open 3-point-attempt rate this postseason and the Heat have randomly become a good 3-point shooting team.
Miami was 27th in 3-point percentage during the regular season. Yet if you zoom out on the Heat’s 3-point shooting, you’ll have more respect for them in that area.
Heat SG Duncan Robinson shoots a 3-pointer vs. the Celtics at FTX Arena. (Joseph Guzy/NBAE via Getty Images)
Remember, Miami is the same team that made last year’s ECF. Last season, the Heat led the NBA in 3-point percentage and were 2nd in defensive 3-point percentage.
BET: Heat +8 (-110) at DraftKings
The Heat's spread and moneyline odds for Game 1 of the ECF vs. the Celtics from DraftKings.
PS Player Prop: Heat big Bam Adebayo points (17.5)
Adebayo has scored at least 18 points in six of his 11 games in these playoffs including three straight. During the regular season, Bam averaged 25.0 PPG vs. the Celtics on 57.1% shooting.
Also, more of Miami's offense should run through Adebayo. The Heat are without their 2nd-leading scorer from the regular season, SG Tyler Herro.
Heat C Bam Adebayo reacts after making a shot against the Celtics. (Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports)
Bam catching the ball in the high post might pull Celtics big Robert Williams III out of the paint. Adebayo has the ability to make mid-range jumpers if Boston's defense sags on him.
Most of the legal U.S. sportsbooks make the OVER for Adebayo's point prop more expensive while it's cheaper at DraftKings. Pinnacle Sportsbook also makes Bam's OVER pricier and that's the sharpest shop in town.
BET: Miami big Bam Adebayo OVER 17.5 points (-110) at DraftKings
Odds for the Over in Heat big Bam Adebayo's point prop vs. the Celtics in Game 1.