Heading West For Both MLB Saturday Winning Wagers
Dammit I miss football. In a few short months we'll be able to sit back, crack open some beers and gamble on football. Until then MLB and the PGA Tour are the only sports I'm paying attention to.
As of Saturday morning, June 24 my MLB record sits at 50-50 and my balance is -3.55 units (u). My favorite looks are a couple of West Coast teams in the ...
MLB Saturday Slate
Arizona Diamondbacks (46-31) at San Francisco Giants (43-33)
Betting odds for the D'Backs vs. Giants in MLB Saturday, June 24 from DraftKings as of 11:30 a.m. ET.
Imma run it back with San Francisco Saturday. The Giants have won 11 of their last 12 games including the series opener with the D'Backs Friday. Ten of San Francisco's wins have come by at least two runs.
The Giants are reportedly using RHP Ryan Walker (2-0, 1.56 ERA) to open a "bullpen day". Their bullpen is well-rested and one of the better units in MLB. San Francisco only used its closer and setup man Friday and the bullpen is 6th in FIP and 9th in WAR.
Arizona gives its 2nd-best starter, RHP Merrill Kelly (9-3, 2.90 ERA) the ball Saturday. I have a hunch Kelly is overrated. His hard-hit rate and BABIP is worse than the MLB average. FanGraphs ranks Kelly 82nd in Stuff+ among MLB starters with a minimum of 30 innings.
Diamondbacks RHP Merrill Kelly delivers a pitch vs. the Philadelphia Phillies at Chase Field in Arizona. (Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports)
Per VSIN, roughly 80% of the money at DraftKings is on the D'Backs. Their moneyline (ML) has ticked up from the -110 opener. But, Arizona's ML price is suspiciously low. The Diamondbacks lead the NL West and have a sub-3.00 ERA starter on the bump.
Also, Arizona's bullpen is a weak spot for the club. The D'Backs' relievers are 21st in WAR, 20th in FIP, and 23rd in HR/9 rate. If Kelly doesn't give Arizona good innings, San Francisco could steal this game late at home.
Finally, the Giants rank 5th in both wRC+ and wOBA vs. right-handed pitching, according to FanGraphs. San Francisco also ranks 9th in ISO, 10th in BB/K rate, and 7th in hard-hit rate.
MLB BET #1: 1.05u on Giants (-105) at DraftKings
Houston Astros (41-35) at Los Angeles Dodgers (42-33)
Betting odds for the Astros vs. Dodgers in MLB Saturday, June 24 from DraftKings as of 11:30 a.m. ET.
Let's buy-low on Dodgers rookie RHP Bobby Miller (3-1, 2.83 ERA) who got crushed in his last outing. The Giants raked Miller for 7 ER over 5.2 innings last Saturday in LAD's 15-0 loss to San Francisco.
Miller's ERA went 0.78 ERA to 2.83 but his FIP ("fielding independent pitching") went from 2.19 to 2.93. I.e. Miller still has good stuff and command. He's allowed just 1 HR in five starts and has a 28/10 K/BB rate.
Astros RHP Ronel Blanco (1-0. 4.66 ERA) is Houston's lowest power-rated starter, per FanGraphs. Blanco was converted from a reliever due to injuries for three other Astros starters. Blanco has a 5.88 FIP and has given up 5 homers in his three starts this season.
Furthermore, the Dodgers are 4th in hard-hit rate against right-handed pitching, tied for 6th in wRC+, 6th in wOBA and 3rd in both ISO and BB/K rate, per FanGraphs.
Dodgers C Will Smith congratulates 1B Freddie Freeman after he hit a solo HR vs. the Los Angeles Angels at Angel Stadium in Anaheim. (Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports)
Even though LAD's relief pitching is a weak spot, I'm looking to the Dodgers plus-money run line (RL). The Dodgers are 10-5 straight up (SU) and RL as home favorites of -150 or more vs. righty starters.
LAD's RL return on investment (ROI) is +39.4% and its ML ROI is -0.4% in those spots. Meaning, if the Dodgers win this game the final margin will most likely be 2+ runs.
It's weird seeing Houston's +1.5 RL set at -125. The defending champion Astros are still the favorites in the AL to make it back to the World Series. Perhaps sportsbooks are trying to lure bettors into a trap or maybe I'm overthinking it.