Head-to-Head Matchups For Rocket Mortgage Classic 2023: Morikawa-Thomas, Fowler-Finau

The 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic tees off Thursday, June 29th at the Detroit Golf Club in Michigan. This is a step down from the past two PGA Tour tourneys — the 2023 U.S. Open and Travelers Championship — which have been "elevated events."

I'm adding a couple of head-to-head (H2H) matchups to my 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic betting card after doling out my starting 5 Tuesday. The H2Hs I've targeted include four of the biggest names in the Rocket Mortgage Classic field...

Rocket Mortgage Classic 2023 Tournament Matchups

Collin Morikawa (-120) > Justin Thomas

I'm turning my back on JT despite him being the only golfer that made me money at last week's Travelers Championship. Thomas beat Cameron Young in a H2H after finishing T19 at the Travelers with Young placing T60.

But, Morikawa is 6th in my Rocket Mortgage Classic power rankings and Thomas is 17th. Morikawa is 4th in this field in my key stat model over the last 36 rounds and 6th in total Strokes Gained (SG) over the last 24 rounds. JT is 10th in my key stat model and 47th in total SG during those spans.

Collin Morikawa and Justin Thomas walk the 1st hole during the 2nd round of the 2023 PGA Championship at Oak Hill Country Club in Rochester, New York. (Michael Reaves/Getty Images)

Both of these golfers have similar issues on the greens. Morikawa ranks 122nd in SG: Putting on Tour this season and Thomas is 151st. Yet Morikawa is 10th in SG: Ball striking (BS) this season and JT is 94th in SG: BS.

The four Rocket Mortgage Classics have been "birdie-fests". Morikawa has a higher birdie average than Thomas on Tour this season. You have to score at Par 5s to compete at birdie-fests, Morikawa is 8th in SG: Par 5 over the last 36 rounds and JT is 24th.

BET 1.2 units (u) on Collin Morikawa (-120) over Justin Thomas at DraftKings Sportsbook

Betting odds for Collin Morikawa over Justin Thomas at the 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic from DraftKings.

Rickie Fowler (-115) > Tony Finau

You have to do a Google search to find this matchup since our friends at DraftKings don't have this available. This is a simple value-play. Fowler is 2nd in my Rocket Mortgage Classic power rankings and Finau is 3rd.

Over the last 36 rounds, Fowler is driving the ball further than Finau and knocking down more birdies. In fact, Fowler is 1st in this field for Birdies-or-Better (BoB) Gained during that stretch and Finau is 6th.

Furthermore, Fowler leads this field in Par 5 scoring and Par 5 Efficiency: 550-600 yards over the last 36 rounds. While Finau is 6th and 7th in those respective metrics. There are three Par 5s within 550-600 yards.

Rickie Fowler tees off on the 10th hole during the 1st round of the 2022 Rocket Mortgage Classic at Detroit Golf Club in Michigan. (Ben Jared/PGA TOUR via Getty Images)

Also, this has been a bounce-back season for Fowler. He has seven top-10 finishes this season including three in his last four starts. Over the last 24 rounds, Fowler leads the field in total SG.

Fowler finished T6 at the Charles Schwab in May, T9 at the 2023 Memorial Tournament earlier this month, T5 at the 2023 U.S. Open and T13 at the Travelers last weekend. Finau is 68th in total SG over his last three starts.

You need to putt to contend at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and Finau has been struggling on the greens lately. Over the last 24 rounds, Finau ranks 127th in this field for SG: Putting and Fowler is 15th.

BET 1.15u on Rickie Fowler (-115) over Tony Finau

More 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic Coverage

2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic Picks Include Sungjae Im, Ludvig Aberg

Check out the Hot Links golf gambling show hosted by Geoff Clark on the OutKick Bets podcast feed. New episodes drop Tuesdays for most full-field PGA Tour events in the 2022-23 season.