Have To Back Skubal Even Against Guardians

Tigers vs. Guardians, 4:08 ET

Playoff baseball has been great so far this year with drama, expected outcomes, and fun surprises. The long grind of the schedule and season and the fact that football is in full season usually distracts people from just how good baseball playoffs are. This season has been no different. Amazingly we have three different teams from the AL Central remaining in the playoffs. For what was supposed to be the worst division in baseball, the teams certainly have shown they belong. Tonight we get a matchup between two of AL Central members as the Tigers take on the Guardians. 

The Tigers come into the game looking to even up the series. In order to get here, the Tigers had to be one of the best teams in baseball over the final month or so of baseball. They overcame another AL Central team, the Twins, just to get into the playoffs. Then they had to face one of the toughest teams in the sport, one with a ton of experience - the Houston Astros. The Tigers looked like anything but playoff rookies. They swept the Astros on the road and allowed just three runs in two games. The opener against the Guardians saw the Tigers get thwarted. They lost the game 7-0 and they were up five runs after the first inning. Their starter, Tyler Holton, who essentially was supposed to just be an opener, more than a starter, allowed four earned runs on four hits and a walk without recording an out. Today is a new day and they have their best pitcher, arguably the best in baseball this season with Tarik Skubal taking the hill. Skubal went 18-4 with a 2.39 ERA, 228 strikeouts, and a 0.92 WHIP during the regular season. He then went six strong innings against the Astros and allowed just four hits and one walk without allowing a run. He only faced the Guardians once this season and allowed one earned run in seven innings, but he did allow 10 hits. 

Sep 19, 2024; Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Cleveland Guardians manager Stephen Vogt, middle, celebrates with players after the Guardians beat the Minnesota Twins at Progressive Field. The Guardians clinched a playoff berth with the win. Mandatory Credit: Ken Blaze-Imagn Images

The Guardians are looking to take a commanding lead against their division foes. If they win here, they have three games to win one more. If they lose, they head to Detroit and need to take at least one game on the road. The team has been substantially better at home than they have been on the road. The Guardians went 92-69 for the season with 50 of their wins coming at home. On the road they went 42-39 which means they should really want to take these home games. They didn't show any signs of rust as they waited for the Tigers to start this playoff journey and their offense exploded right away. Today will be rough against Skubal, but facing tough pitching is what you do in the playoffs. To combat him, they put Matthew Boyd on the hill. Boyd put a good season together in his limited amount of time this season. He only made 8 starts, averaging just about five innings per start, and allowed a total of 12 earned runs. Overall, he went 2-2 with a 2.72 ERA, 46 strikeouts, and a 1.13 WHIP. The Tigers have only one hitter who has ever faced him, Riley Greene, and he went 0-for-1. 

Fading the Guardians in Cleveland hasn't been a profitable endeavor this season, but they weren't facing Skubal every time. I expect this game to be lower scoring, but I can't quite get there on the under. I'm a little concerned that the Guardians got 10 hits against him last time and scored just once. I'll take the Tigers to win this one and even the series though. They can't waste a start by their best pitcher if they expect to win this series.

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