Angel Reese, Not Caitlin Clark, Is The Smarter Bet To Win 2024 WNBA Rookie Of The Year
A well-educated man once said: "Facts don't care about your feelings". That said, if you line up the facts, it's clear that Chicago Sky forward Angel Reese's case to win 2024 WNBA Rookie of the Year (ROY) is stronger than the case for Indiana Fever phenom Caitlin Clark.
Before making my pro-Reese argument, let's establish this article is "betting analysis". Again, I don't care about your feelings because my only concern is getting a "plus-expected value" bet. As of June 26, Reese's odds of winning the award are +600 at FanDuel and Clark's are -950. The implied probability of Clark's -950 odds is 90.5% and Reese's +600 odds is 14.3%.
While I agree Clark is more likely to win WNBA Rookie of the Year, the gap between her and Reese isn't as wide as the odds suggest. So, let's do a "thought experiment". I'll change their names to "Jason Voorhees" and "Michael Myers", and we'll compare resumes. Be honest about whose looks better.
Indiana Fever SG Caitlin Clark drives to the basket against Chicago Sky guard Dana Evans in a WNBA game at Wintrust Arena. (Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports)
WNBA Rookie of the Year Battle: Angel Reese (Voorhees) vs. Caitlin Clark (Myers)
- Team Record: Voorhees 6-9, Myers 7-11
- Points per game (PPG): Voorhees 13.2 PPG, Myers 16.3 PPG*
- Field-goal shooting: Voorhees 40.6%, Myers 39.9%
- Assists per game: Voorhees 2.1, Myers 6.6*
- Rebounds per game: Voorhees 11.1*, Myers 5.4
- PER: Voorhees 19.3*, Myers 16.1
- Win Shares per 48: Voorhees .158*, Myers .012
*Leads all WNBA rookies.
Objectively speaking, Voorhees, played by Reese, has the better case for ROY, especially considering their odds. She is more efficient and Clark's counting stats aren't large enough to overcome that. Clark has a lower shooting percentage and averages only 3.1 more PPG. The Iowa alum's scoring average must be 10+ PPG higher than Reese with a shooting rate that low.
Also, Chicago has a higher winning percentage than Indiana currently (40.0-38.9%) and Reese has more Win Shares per 48 by a wide margin. This negates the argument that "Clark makes her team better". The bottom line is Reese matters more to her team than Clark when it comes to wins and losses.
READ: Angel Reese Has Finally Cut The Drama And Is Just Playing Great Basketball | Glenn Guilbeau
Reese out-played Clark in the Sky's 88-87 win over the Fever this past weekend. The LSU graduate had game-highs in points (25) and rebounds (16) and led Chicago to a fourth-quarter comeback victory. Reese scored 10 points and grabbed five boards with 6:38 remaining, whereas Clark went scoreless during that span.
Since Reese vs. Clark is the highest-profile game in the WNBA, voters for Rookie of the Year will be heavily swayed by the Fever-Sky results. Clark has a 2-1 lead over Reese, but their teams meet for a fourth and final time August 30. Clark's numbers must dramatically improve or Reese can win this award if Chicago beats Indy in their final regular-season game.
Plus, Clark's popularity with fans isn't as big of a factor as casual bettors may think. As OutKick personalities have discussed, the media and women basketball players aren't just saying: "Here, Clark, be the face of the WNBA". No, Clark needs to exceed people's sky-high expectations for that kind of praise.
With that in mind, consider the WNBA's process for selecting ROY: "A national panel of 56 sportswriters and broadcasters submit votes for 10 of the 12 season-ending awards". Given what we know about how the media discusses these two, who is the better bet to win WNBA Rookie of the Year: Clark at -950 or Reese at +600?
Feelings aside, you know the right answer.
_____________________________
Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting