Hammer This Game Between Royals And Tigers

Royals vs. Tigers, 6:40 ET

It pays to read a full article instead of just skipping to the end of it and reading what the play is. Sure, sometimes there isn't a ton of time and you need to get to the play, but there are some nuggets of information that can get you cash if you read the whole thing - or additional plays that I have in terms of leans. Yesterday my official play was the first five innings of the game between the Braves and the Brewers. The game was tied after five innings so no money lost there, but I said I expected the Braves to win the game, and they poured in four runs in the final couple of frames so they won the game. Again, not official, but I do hope you read and get some of the additional thoughts - they aren't always correct, but I try to share as much as I can to help get you paid. Let's keep that going here as we go back to two teams we've covered extensively this season as the Royals take on the Tigers.

The Royals are 11 games over .500 but didn't really do much at the trade deadline to push their team ahead, aside from adding Michael Lorenzen - who will be a reliable addition to their rotation, and Paul DeJong, an underperforming infielder. With them in the playoff race for the first time in years, I am a bit surprised that the Royals didn't make a bigger push to add to the team. However, this might be one of those years where they seem ahead of schedule and think they are playing with house money. If they make the playoffs, great! If they don't, at least they can think their team is on the correct path for the future. If I am being fair to the team, they may not have needed much offensively. They are hitting .252 for the season and are averaging 4.7 runs per game. Even the pitching staff has done rather well this season with a 3.80 ERA and a 1.25 WHIP. So, perhaps, the team just thought it made more sense to not bother with changes. I assume they will need to find a path to the playoffs through the Wild Card as they are six games back in the division and still have the Twins in front of them as well. Right now the Royals have a two game lead over the Red Sox for the final spot. Tonight, they turn the ball to Seth Lugo who has been a horse for them and for us. I've talked about Lugo extensively this season, so for those who are new, I'll just share his numbers: 12-5, 2.66 ERA, and a 1.04 WHIP. He will be in consideration for the Cy Young award if he continues this path. He faced Detroit once this season and turned in seven scoreless innings, allowing just three hits, two walks, while striking out nine batters.

Jul 30, 2024; Detroit, Michigan, USA;  Detroit Tigers first baseman Bligh Madrid (40) hits a single against the Cleveland Guardians in the second inning at Comerica Park. Mandatory Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports

The Tigers are not in playoff contention. Sure, they aren't eliminated, and they deserve at least a little bit of kudos for putting together a competitive year. However, those small victories mean very little for a team that hasn't seen the playoffs since 2014. For the Detroit fans out there, the good news is that it appears they are trying to do the rebuild correctly. Signing players to short contracts, hoping they perform well so they can trade them away. There were rumors of them trading Tarik Skubal, and they still could. The return for him could accelerate the return to a competitive team, but they would also still need an ace to lead the rotation. In any case, it is still "wait until next year" as the Tigers have traded away multiple players, including Jack Flaherty. One note on that - they botched that trade. Perhaps they waited too long, or the health issue the Yankees publicized caused a problem, but they didn't get much back for a solid starter that could help a playoff team. Today they put out Keider Montero to take the mound. This will be Montero's eighth outing of the season, and seventh start. So far this month he had two nice starts against the Guardians and Twins, and three consecutive rough starts against the Dodgers, Blue Jays and Twins. He's pitched at least five innings in each of these past three outings, but he has allowed five runs in each game as well. He has also allowed six homers over those three games. One good piece of information for him is that he hasn't faced the Royals before so he does have a bit of an edge to start.

This should get ugly rather quickly. While it could take the Royals a little bit of time to figure out Montero, it won't take them a full game. He has shown glimpses of being a decent pitcher, but he has also shown that he is susceptible to homers and hits - he's allowed 42 hits in 36.2 innings. I've done this once before on a Lugo game, and it blew up on me literally with two outs in the ninth inning. But, I'll try it again. I'm taking the Royals -0.5 through five innings, -1.5 for the full game, and the Tigers under 3.5 runs for their team total.

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