Guardians, Angels Form An MLB Best-Bet Daily Double Saturday
I had to take a day off from betting MLB after the New York Mets' late-inning collapse vs. the Atlanta Braves Thursday. The Mets blew a 10-7 lead entering the 8th inning in a 13-10 extra-inning loss in Atlanta.
My MLB 2023 record fell to 43-40 and my balance is +0.10 units (u). After sulking Friday about New York's meltdown, I've dusted myself and placed two wagers in the ...
MLB Saturday Slate
Houston Astros (36-28) at Cleveland Guardians (30-33)
Betting odds for the Astros at the Guardians in MLB Saturday, June 10 from DraftKings.
One of my favorite young pitchers — Guardians RHP Triston McKenzie — in MLB takes the mound Saturday. McKenzie pitched 5-scoreless innings with a 10/1 K/BB rate in Cleveland's 2-1 victory at the Minnesota Twins Friday.
I'm not the only one who likes McKenzie. Per Pregame.com, more than 70% of the cash in the betting market is on the Guardians at the time of writing. Whereas nearly two-thirds of the bets placed are on the Astros.
Typically, you want to follow the money when it's counter to the public in sports betting. Professional handicappers wager a lot more dough than the average sports bettor.
Guardians starting pitcher Triston McKenzie delivers vs. the Chicago White Sox at Guaranteed Rate Field. (Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports)
Oddsmakers are reacting to the cash column of the betting splits. Cleveland's moneyline opened at -115 and is all the way up to -140. Also, the Guardians are dialed in at the plate over the last week.
They rank 6th in wRC+, wOBA and WAR, 8th in ISO and 3rd in K% over that span, per FanGraphs. The Astros are behind the Guardians in all those hitting metrics this past week.
MLB Bet #1: 1.4u on Guardians (-140) moneyline at DraftKings
Seattle Mariners (30-32) at Los Angeles Angels (35-30)
Betting odds for the Mariners at the Angels in MLB Saturday, June 10 from DraftKings.
The Angels bounced back from an early deficit then held off a late rally in a 5-4 win over the Mariners in their series opener Friday. Shohei Othani gave up 3 ER over 5 innings pitched (IP) but hit a home run and added 2 RBI at the dish.
Mariners RHP Bryan Woo makes his 2nd MLB start. Woo got rocked for 6 ER in just 2 IP in Seattle's 16-6 loss at the Texas Rangers last Saturday. LHP Patrick Sandoval (3-5, 4.14 ERA) is on the bump for the Mariners Saturday.
Sandoval has pitched well this season against all teams not named the "Astros" or "Yankees." Both clubs have good relief pitching but the Mariners struggle against lefties. They have lost three straight road games vs. lefty starters.
Mariners OF Jarred Kelenic reacts after striking out vs. the New York Yankees at T-Mobile Park in Seattle, Washington. (Steph Chambers/Getty Images)
Seattle's lineup ranks 23rd in wRC+, 27th in wOBA, 18th in hard-hit rate, and 20th in ISO vs. left-handed pitching, according to FanGraphs. LAA's lineup is top-10 in MLB for wRC+, wOBA, and ISO.
I like the Angels, but there is suspicious line movement worth addressing. Per VSIN, more than 80% of the action at DraftKings is on LAA but they are getting cheaper. All those bets should make the Angels pricier.
But, the Angels have a 5-game winning streak and are 19-13 at home this year. The Mariners have lost five of six games and 13-17 on the road. These trends and LAA's lineup gives me confidence in ...