Guaranteed NBA Winners Tuesday Include 1 Player Prop, 1 Side, And 1 Total

Someone should investigate the Dallas Mavericks for point-shaving Monday. As -11.5 favorites, Dallas beat the Utah Jazz 110-102, costing me 1.1 units (u). Mavs All-Star Luka Dončić scored just 15 points on 5-of-22 shooting. Luka committed his sixth foul, on offense no less, when the Mavericks were up 13 with 1:02 left. 

Then, a Dallas backup missed a layup with roughly 30 seconds remaining, and the Jazz hit a corner 3-pointer afterward, leading to a Utah cover. That horrible sequence was the difference between winning and losing money on the Association Monday. 

Nonetheless, it's Tuesday, so there is nothing else to gamble on besides basketball, which has a slim four-game slate with an NBA on TNT doubleheader featuring the Mavericks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves and New Orleans Pelicans vs. Golden State Warriors. Of course, I have bets for both and snuck in a wager for a game no one will watch. 

NBA Betting Card: Tuesday, October 29th 

• Bet 1.1u on UNDER 219 (-110) in Denver Nuggets vs. Brooklyn Nets at Caesars Sportsbook.
• Bet 0.75u on Minnesota Timberwolves PG Mike Conley OVER 8.5 points (-113) vs. the Dallas Mavericks at FanDuel.
• Bet 1.2u on the New Orleans Pelicans moneyline (-120) vs. the Golden State Warriors at FanDuel.

UNDER 219 in Nuggets at Nets, 7:30 p.m. ET

There should be many long one-and-possessions in this game. Both play at a below-average tempo (100.4 is the average NBA pace): Brooklyn is 13th in pace (99.8) and Denver is 25th (98.0). The Nets are 20th in offensive rebounding rate and 2nd defensively. The Nuggets are ninth in offensive rebounding rate and 23rd defensively. 

Meanwhile, Denver is seventh in offensive turnover rate (TOV%) and 22nd defensively. Brooklyn is 22nd in offensive TOV% and ninth in defensive TOV%. Hence, the Nuggets won't get easy outbacks because the Nets do a good job on the glass. Brooklyn won't get easy points off of turnovers since Denver doesn't turn the ball over frequently. 

Los Angeles Clippers C Ivica Zubac collides with Denver Nuggets C Nikola Jokic at Ball Arena in Colorado. (Isaiah J. Downing-Imagn Images)

Also, the Nuggets start slow offensively. Last season, Denver was 0-4 Over/Under (O/U) in October with a -8.1 O/U margin. Two seasons ago, the Nuggets were 4-3 O/U, but in 2021-22, they were 1-5 O/U with a -22.1 O/U differential. Perhaps Denver's 127-125 overtime win vs. the Toronto Raptors Monday throws bettors off the scent. 

Prediction: Nuggets 109, Nets 103

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Mavericks at Timberwolves, 7:30 p.m. ET

This is a revenge game for the T-Wolves, who lost to the Mavs 4-1 in the 2024 Western Conference Finals (WCF) after upsetting the then-defending champion Nuggets in the second round. For what it's worth, Dallas +5/+5.5 is the "right side" because Minnesota newcomer PF Julius Randle is discovering his role in the offense.

However, my favorite bet in this game is Timberwolves PG Mike Conley going OVER 8.5 points. Dallas guards Luka Dončić, Kyrie Irving, and Klay Thompson are terrible defensively and Conley should get wide-open looks playing off of Randle and Minnesota All-Star Anthony Edwards. 

Minnesota Timberwolves PG Mike Conley takes a layup on the Dallas Mavericks in the 2024 NBA Western Conference Finals at the American Airlines in Texas. (Kevin Jairaj-Imagn Images)

In the 2024 WCF, Conley averaged 12.2 points per game (PPG) on 47.8% shooting with the second-highest offensive rating (124) in Minnesota's starting 5. Conley scored 10.8 PPG on a 69.9% true shooting rate (.517/.529/1.000) with a 139 offensive rating in four meetings with Dallas last regular season. 

Since joining the Timberwolves around the trade deadline in 2022-23, Conley has scored 9+ points in eight of his 10 games vs. the Mavericks. Conley's path to 9+ points Tuesday is two 3-pointers (the Over 1.5 is juiced to -128 at FanDuel), a layup in pick-and-roll action with T-Wolves C Rudy Gobert, and one or two free throws. 

Bet 0.75u on Minnesota PG Mike Conley OVER 8.5 points 

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Pelicans (-120) at Warriors, 10 p.m. ET

New Orleans will be without starting PG Dejounte Murray and sharp-shooting wing Trey Murphy III. But, Golden State is missing future Hall of Famer, Steph Curry, defensive guard De'Antony Melton, and SF Andrew Wiggins is "questionable" with a back injury. Obviously, Curry's absence is the biggest injury for this matchup. 

That said, if Wiggins can't play Tuesday, the Warriors will be without two of their best on-ball defenders between him and Melton. NOLA has three guys who can create off-the-dribble, including SG C.J. McCollum, wing Brandon Ingram, and Zion Williamson. 

Golden State Warriors PF Draymond Green battles New Orleans Pelicans PF Zion Williamson under the basket at Smoothie King Center. (Matthew Dobbins-Imagn Images)

Furthermore, I'm buying low on the Pelicans after they failed to cover as -6.5 favorites in a 105-103 victory over the Trail Blazers Friday and lost by 22 points in their rematch Sunday. Zion is averaging 15.0 PPG on 25.9% shooting, which will change eventually. 

New Orleans won twice in San Francisco last season — 141-105 in January and 114-109 in April — and the Warriors were healthy for both meetings. Finally, Golden State has struggled to cover at home. Since 2023, the Warriors are 11-23 vs. the spread at home with a -4.2 spread differential. 

Prediction: Pelicans 114, Warriors 107

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