'Martingaling' With Green Bay Packers Over Detroit Lions Thursday In NFL Week 14

For the uninitiated, "Martingaling" is a gambling strategy when you double down after a loss to win back your losses and turn a profit. Well, I'm Martingaling the rematch between the Green Bay Packers (9-3) and Detroit Lions (11-1) on Thursday Night Football in NFL Week 14 at Ford Field. In Week 9, I had the Packers +3 at home over the Lions on my Circa Million VI card. 

The best price I found for Green Bay is +3.5 (-115) at BetMGM, where the Packers have a +155 moneyline (the Lions are -190) and the total is 51.5 (-110 each way). Finding the best odds is one of the most important parts of successful sports betting. It's like Christmas shopping on Black Friday or Cyber Monday. Nonetheless, I'm willing to bet Green Bay down to +3. 

Green Bay Packers QB Jordan Love in the pocket against the Detroit Lions at Ford Field. (Lon Horwedel-Imagn Images)

The Packers know they can win in 'Motor City'

On Thanksgiving 2023, the Packers upset the Lions 29-22 in Detroit as +8 road underdogs. Hence, we have "proof of concept" for Green Bay pulling off this upset. The Packers opened the game with two 75-yard touchdown drives and never looked back. Green Bay QB Jordan Love completed 22-of-32 passes for 268 yards, 3 TDs, and no interceptions with a 125.5 QB Rating. 

Green Bay ‘won the box score’ vs. Detroit in Week 9

Sure, the Packers lost 24-14 to the Lions as +3 home underdogs in Lambeau Field in their first meeting this season. But, Green Bay was +1.9 in yards per play (6.6-4.7) and converted three more first downs. The Packers lost because they were 1-for-4 in the red zone, got called for 10 penalties, and Love threw a stupid pick-six. 

Yet, Love was a limited participant in practice that week after leaving in the third quarter of Green Bay's 30-27 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 8. Once Love was officially ruled in for Week 9, the Packers closed as a +2.5 underdog. And Detroit was in much better shape entering that game compared to this week.

The Lions have ‘cluster injuries’ on defense 

A big reason Detroit almost blew a 16-point lead in its 23-20 win vs. the Chicago Bears Thanksgiving was defensive injuries. Granted, he crapped himself on the final drive, but Bears QB Caleb Williams ended the game with 256 passing yards, 3 TDs and no interceptions. After getting shutout in the first half, Williams nearly stole that game from the banged-up Lions. 

They lost LB Malcolm Rodriguez to a season-ending injury last week. Detroit defensive linemen D.J. Reader, Josh Pascal, and Levi Onwuzurike are questionable and haven't practiced this week. Plus, Lions Pro Bowl pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson and LB Alex Anzalone are already on the IR. 

Per Pro Football Focus (PFF), Rodriguez is the 14th-best at his position among 83 qualifying NFL linebackers. Hutchinson was PFF's second-best edge rusher and the favorite to win 2024-25 NFL Defensive Player of the Year before getting hurt. Anzalone led Detroit in tackles from 2022-23 and was having another productive year. 

This line is begging for Detroit money 

Because the Packers closed as +2.5 underdogs at Lambeau last month, doesn't the Lions -3/-3.5 at home feel fishy? We know how bad their injuries are, but the public doesn't consider injuries to non-superstars before betting. 

Finally, this is Detroit's second-lowest spread at home since it was -4 vs. the then 3-0 Seattle Seahawks in Week 4. Maybe I'm galaxy-braining too hard, but the sportsbooks are saying this is a coin-flip game, and Green Bay will split the season series with Detroit. 

Prediction: Packers 31, Lions 27

• For what it's worth, the Packers will be one of my five picks in the Circa Million VI for NFL Week 14, and I'm sprinkling a tiny wager on their moneyline.

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my NFL 2024-25 betting record via X all season.