The Green Bay Packers Will Improve In 2024 And Still Disappoint Cheeseheads
NFL 2024 is around the corner. Last year, I hit 61% of my Circa Million V and NFL playoff sides and totals. I'll preview every team to prepare for the upcoming year, give out my favorite season-long bet, and record projections for each. These are mostly ‘picks’ but I'll tell you which bets are ‘in pocket’. Check out my AFC South, NFC South, and AFC North team-by-team previews. I'm continuing the NFC North look-ahead with the Green Bay Packers.
The post-Aaron Rodgers era for the Packers got off to a rough start. Green Bay lost six of its first nine games in 2023 before everything started to click for Rodgers' successor, QB Jordan Love. The Packers won six of their final eight regular-season games to finish 9-8 and snuck into the playoffs.
They beat the brakes off of the Dallas Cowboys 48-32 in the NFC Wild Card game and lost to the San Francisco 49ers 24-21 in a nail-biter in the divisional round. According to RBSDM.com, Love was second in "expected points added per play blended with completion rate over expectation" from Week 11 on. This is a fancy term for "scoring points and throwing guys open".
Green Bay Packers QB Jordan Love throws the ball vs. the San Francisco 49ers at Levi's Stadium. (Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports)
Love was rewarded with a four-year, $220 million contract extension this offseason. A big reason for Love's breakout at the end of 2023 was Packers head coach Matt LaFleur simplifying his offense. Essentially, LaFleur told Love to "stop thinking and start playing" and Love erupted.
LaFleur is 56-27 since Green Bay hired him in 2019 and won the NFC North in his first three years with the team. People expect the Packers to be in the mix again in 2024. Especially, considering they have an elite head coach with a Pro Bowl quarterback surrounded by young skill-position players.
Green Bay Packers 2024 Odds
Courtesy of FanDuel at noon ET Tuesday, August 20.
- Super Bowl: +1800
- Conference: +800
- Division: +200
- Playoffs: Yes (-158), No (+128)
- 9.5 Wins: Over (-138), Under (+112)
The Packers won't be as bad as their 3-6 start last season or as good as their "five quarters from the Super Bowl" finish. Remember, this is the same team that upset the Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs as +5.5 home underdogs then lost to the QB Tommy DeVito-led New York Giants as -6 road favorites the week after.
Also, Green Bay's final three wins of the regular season were against the 2-15 Carolina Panthers, by three points (33-30). The Minnesota Vikings with two backup quarterbacks, Nick Mullens and Jarren Hall, and the Chicago Bears with QB Justin Fields, who never lived up to his first-round potential.
New York Giants pass rusher Azeez Ojulari sacks Green Bay Packers QB Jordan Love at MetLife Stadium in New Jersey. (Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports)
Furthermore, the Packers are going to have a tougher schedule. Besides Patrick Mahomes, Detroit Lions QB Jared Goff (twice), and former Vikings QB Kirk Cousins (once because he tore his Achilles vs. Green Bay in Week 8), the Packers didn't face any tough quarterbacks last season. That's not the case this year.
In 2024, Green Bay plays Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts (a legit NFL MVP contender), LA Rams QB Matt Stafford, Houston Texans QB C.J. Stroud, Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence (due for a bounce-back year), Goff twice, Bears rookie QB Caleb Williams (who will be nasty), Niners QB Brock Purdy, and Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa.
For the record, I'm not anti-Packers. I'm just giving reasons why Green Bay won't be a title contender this year. One of my biggest bets last season was the Packers +7 with a sprinkle on their moneyline at Dallas in the playoffs. But, part of my thinking was the "Cowboys are frauds", not "Green Bay is a powerhouse".
I did, and do, like Love and LaFleur. They should win 10+ games for the next 10 seasons. In fact, I agree with the market's 9-10 win projection. However, I cannot get on board with Green Bay's division, NFC, and Super Bowl Odds. The Packers have a mediocre defense and no game-breakers on offense.
Speaking of "Caleb Williams," I'm riding with Chicago to win the 2024 NFC North. I've already successfully talked myself into thinking Detroit will regress, and the Vikings will be horrible. I have Green Bay winning one more game in 2024 but vying for an NFC wild-card berth.
Green Bay Packers 2024 Projection: 10-7 for second in the NFC North
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‘Best Bet’ For the 2024 Green Bay Packers: Jordan Love OVER 3,825.5 Passing Yards (-112)
If I wanted to hedge my prediction, I'd take LaFleur to win NFL Coach of the Year at FanDuel (+1300). There's a world where the Packers win 13+ games and have home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs. Since LaFleur already did that with Rodgers, maybe he gets more credit than Love, who is +1400 to win NFL MVP.
However, because Green Bay faces better quarterbacks this year, Love will air it out to keep up with the opponents. Plus, he threw for 4,159 yards in 2023 despite playing like sh*t in several games. Love had 151 yards vs. the Atlanta Falcons, who fired their whole coaching staff this offseason, and 180 passing yards vs. the Denver Broncos, who gave up 70 points to Miami three games prior.
I'm going to "talk from both sides of my mouth" now but, while the Packers don't have "game-breakers," they have a bunch of young receivers who could break out this season. Green Bay WRs Romeo Dobbs, Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, and Dontayvion Wicks are all "above replacement level" receivers, according to Pro Football Focus.
With this in mind, the Packers' WR corp helps Love's "Over 3,825.5 passing yards" as much as having an elite No. 1 wideout. Instead of one big injury to a Davante Adams-type guy, Green Bay would need cluster injuries at receiver to crater its pass game.
Actual NFL 2024 Futures in the account
- Indianapolis Colts QB Anthony Richardson to lead the NFL in rushing touchdowns (+2700)
- Carolina Panthers to win the NFC South (+1100)
- Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence to throw for 4,000+ yards (+165)
- Houston Texans WR Nico Collins to lead the NFL in receiving yards (+2900)
- 3-team division-winning parlay: Panthers, Jaguars, and Browns (+31400)
- Cleveland Browns ‘Ladder’ Futures: Super Bowl (+3500), AFC (+2200), and AFC North (+600)
- Pittsburgh Steelers to have the worst regular-season record in 2024 (+3100)
- Cincinnati Bengals' Zac Taylor to win 2024 NFL Coach of the Year (+3000)
- Detroit Lions edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson to win NFL Defensive Player of the Year (+1400)
- Green Bay Packers QB Jordan Love OVER 3,825.5 Passing Yards (-112)
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