Gray Can Outduel Suarez As Cardinals Take On Phillies

Cardinals vs. Phillies, 7:15 ET

The Stanley Cup Finals are getting close to being set. The NBA Finals have locked in the two finalists. The NFL is starting up soon, and the Bears have been chosen for Hard Knocks. Meanwhile, we have baseball completing roughly 40% of the season. This game is a little interesting to me outside of a betting perspective because we have one of the best teams in baseball - one that had an outstanding month of May - taking on a team that looked like they were dead in the water. Tonight, the Cardinals take on the Phillies in Philadelphia and we look to take down the books. 

The Cardinals were terrible. Let's be really clear, they aren't exactly world-beaters at the moment, they are playing good baseball through. Entering May, they were three games below .500. From April 30th until May 11th, the team was 1-9 over the 10 games. May 12th hit, and they flipped a switch. On May 12th, they started the day at 15-24. Now they are around .500 after winning 12 of 15 games. The team is hitting better, pitching better, and fielding better. Frankly it is a bit hard to believe it is the same club. I was expecting them to be great last season, and they sucked. This season started badly, but they're making a push for the division. It is simple to say the team is just playing better offensively and the pitching has improved, but that's what has happened. The only team that was hotter was the team they face today. Sonny Gray is taking the ball for the Cardinals today. He was a big addition to their team in the offseason and he hasn't disappointed the club. Gray has made nine starts this season and only two of them were subpar. He's allowed 15 earned runs in 52 innings this season, but 11 of the runs have come in 11 innings in back-to-back starts between the Angels and Brewers. He has posted a quality start in four of his nine outings. Gray has gotten the best of the Phillies over his career, holding them to a .162 batting average and no home runs in 111 at-bats against him. 

Apr 27, 2024; San Diego, California, USA; Philadelphia Phillies starting pitcher Ranger Suarez (left) celebrates with center fielder Brandon Marsh (16) after defeating the San Diego Padres at Petco Park. Mandatory Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

The Phillies were the best team in baseball, and probably can still be considered one of the best. Their hitting is great, their pitching has been sharp, and their fielding and baserunning has been strong as well. Philadelphia comes into this game with one of the highest averages in the league, the most runs scored, and top-10 in most offensive categories. The pitching for the Phillies has been equally impressive. Their team ERA is second in the Majors and first in the National League. They have also allowed the fewest homers in baseball (interesting note: the Braves and Nationals have allowed the next fewest, and the Mets are also in the top-5, all NL East teams). One of their best pitchers is going today, Ranger Suarez. He has outstanding numbers this season and looks to continue to capitalize on his great season. Suarez is looking to capture his 10th win of the season, which would make him the first ten game winner in the league. He is sporting the second best ERA at 1.75, and the best WHIP of 0.82. Not only is he doing great there, but he is striking a lot of batters out, sitting at 11th in the league with 77 for the season. He is coming off of his worst start of the season - he took his first loss, allowing four earned runs over six innings to the Rockies. That was the first time that the Phillies lost a Suarez start all year. Cardinals hitters are just 3-for-12 against Suarez in their careers, but only one of those was more than a single - a double from Paul Goldschmidt. 

I think this should be an under through five innings. Gray gives the Cardinals a good chance to win the game. To be clear, the Phillies have struggled lately, producing a losing road trip. So, that does make me lean toward the Cardinals winning this game, but I think the safer option is to take the Cardinals and Phillies under through five. I will probably sprinkle on the Cardinals moneyline as well. 

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