Grab The Points With The Heat Vs. Celtics In Game 7 And Hold On For Dear Life
The Boston Celtics (3-3) could make NBA history by becoming the 1st team to ever win a series after falling to 0-3. They host the Miami Heat (3-3) Monday in a do-or-die Game 7 in the 2023 Eastern Conference Finals (ECF).
Boston G Derrick White's game-winning buzzer-beating putback in Game 6 to even the series was the best moment of the 2023 NBA playoffs. NBA talking heads aren't giving the Heat a chance after that heart-breaking loss Saturday.
Boston Celtics SG Derrick White hits the game-winner vs. the Heat during Game 6 of the 2023 NBA Eastern Conference Finals at Kaseya Center in Miami. (Eric Espada/NBAE via Getty Images)
The betting market is a slave to the regular-season performances of these two teams. The Celtics were an NBA-title favorite the whole season. While the Heat needed the 2nd postseason play-in game just to clinch a playoff berth.
DraftKings Sportsbook says there are three possessions worth of difference between these teams. But, Heat-Celtics have split the "four factors" in the ECF. Boston has more talent and Miami has the better coach and defense.
Heat At Celtics Game 7 odds (DraftKings)
Betting odds for the Heat at the Celtics in Game 7 of the ECF Monday, May 29th from DraftKings.
Game 7s in the NBA playoffs typically play Under the total. As pressure builds, teams slow down the tempo, and playoff games turn into "possession basketball". I.e. there are fewer shot attempts in Game 7s.
With that in mind, half-court execution and how teams finish games become more important in these situations. Per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG), Miami is out-scoring Boston 100.0-98.5 in points per 100 half-court plays run.
Also, Heat alpha Jimmy Butler is one of the best closers in the NBA. In the ECF, Miami has a +73.3 net rating in the "clutch". This is when games are within a 5-point margin in the final five minutes of regulation.
Boston tried to lose Game 6. The Celtics were up 100-91 with 3:04 remaining and the Heat went on a 12-4 run to end that game. Butler scored 10 of those points including three would-be go-ahead free throws with :03 left.
The same scenario played out for Heat-Celtics Game 7 last year in Miami. Boston was up 12 with 3:35 left in that game. The Heat went on an 11-3 run to end the game. Butler missed a would-be game-winning 3 to clinch Boston's win.
Heat big Bam Adebayo and Butler high-five during Game Two of the ECF vs. the Celtics at the TD Garden in Boston. (Nathaniel S. Butler/NBAE via Getty Images)
Miami almost stole this series in Game 6 even though Butler and Bam Adebayo were awful. Per CTG, the Heat shot 2-for-17 from short-mid-range and a lot of those misses were Butler and Bam.
Ultimately, Miami will get more out of Butler and Bam in Game 7, and "Boston being the deeper team" is largely overstated. If the Heat can minimize the turnovers and get Game 7 into "clutch" time, I got them advancing to the NBA Finals.
BET: Miami +7.5 (-115) & their moneyline (+245)
Gambling strategy: Bet 1.15 units (u) on the Heat plus the points and sprinkle a 0.25u on Miami to pull off the upset.
The Miami Heat's spread and moneyline vs. the Boston Celtics in Game 7 of the ECF as of 11:20 a.m. ET Monday, May 29th from DraftKings.