Gonzaga Could Pull Off The Upset On Friday

Gonzaga vs. Purdue, 7:40 ET, Friday

I would love to get a poll going on what games people look forward to most for the NCAA Tournament. Does everyone prefer the opening weekend when there are 16 games each the first two days, but we have some really crummy matchups. Or, do you prefer this weekend where we only have four games each day, but they are between quality teams. Of course, each year is a different scenario. Last season top seeds were falling quite a bit. This year, the top seeds have done rather well, and now we have #5 Gonzaga taking on #1 Purdue. 

Gonzaga could be the biggest threat in this bracket for Purdue. They have a solid frontcourt and they have good guards that should, on paper, give them a decent enough matchup. So far in the tournament, Gonzaga has taken down McNeese by 20 points in their opener, and beat Kansas by 21 in their second round game. McNeese is not a school that I could even point to on a map, so I can't really claim a quality opponent there. As far as the victory over Kansas, they were able to win convincingly but keep in mind the Jayhawks were down their best player. That isn't a knock to Gonzaga, they took care of business. They also probably would've won anyway with how well they shot - 60.3% from the floor and 53.3% from deep. I don't expect quite the same amount of success against a full-strength Purdue. The way that Gonzaga can win this game is if their forwards, Ben Gregg, Graham Ike, and Anton Watson can outscore Zach Edey. Three against one is a pretty good chance, and you now have three guys you can throw at him defensively. In the game against Kansas they scored 51 of the 89 Gonzaga points and held Kansas center Hunter Dickinson to just 15 points on 6-for-15 shooting. Dickinson also hit two threes, something Edey won't be attempting at all. 

Zach Edey and top-seeded Purdue were upset in the 2023 NCAA Tournament by Fairleigh Dickinson. (Adam Cairns/USA TODAY NETWORK)

On Purdue's side, if they want to win this game, they need Edey to be excellent and the guards have to outscore the backcourt for Gonzaga. To this point in the tournament, the team has barely had to break a sweat. Edey has scored 53 points and grabbed 35 rebounds already. He won't have as much space, and I don't think it will be quite as easy for him to put up points or get the rebounds. However, the two teams did play earlier in the season and Purdue won that game by 10 points. Edey was able to score 25 points and grab 14 rebounds. I've said this a number of times before, Purdue is going to try and dump the ball into the post and when Edey gets double-teamed, he needs to kick the ball out to his teammates and hope they can get a bucket. In that first game, Ike, Watson, and Gregg scored 24 points (so Edey did outscore them). The guards for Purdue put up 28 points compared to 31 points for the Gonzaga starters. So far in the tournament, Purdue has shot the ball well, but they haven't played very tough competition. 

I feel like Gonzaga could pull off the upset here. I don't think that Purdue is as good as advertised. Sure, the Boilermakers handled Gonzaga easily enough in the regular season. However, I feel like Gonzaga was trying to put some things together early in the year. They did lose to St. Mary's in their conference tournament, but Purdue lost to Wisconsin in overtime during their tournament as well. I am going to take the points with Gonzaga and hope they can keep it close. I think their guard play is better and I expect them to at least balance the scoring and rebounding of Edey with their frontcourt. Take Gonzaga +5.5. 

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