Going Against The Numbers And Sticking With My Gut In Detroit Lions At San Francisco 49ers NFC Championship Game
Usually, I'll use a bunch of random statistics and team rankings to sway you into agreeing with my bet. But, I'm mostly just going with my gut in the 2024 NFC conference championship between the Detroit Lions and San Francisco 49ers.
The numbers probably support a bet on the 49ers as -7/-7.5 favorites depending where you look. That said, I'm BETTING LIONS +7.5 (-114) at FanDuel Sportsbook and I'm willing to play them down to +6. Essentially, the 49ers peaked in the middle of the season whereas Detroit is playing its best football entering the NFC title game.
San Francisco led the NFC in scoring margin. Niners QB Brock Purdy put up better numbers than Detroit QB Jared Goff. This is San Francisco head coach Kyle Shanahan's 4th NFC championship appearance in the last five seasons. The 49ers have the NFL's best linebacker (Fred Warner) and a top-five pass rusher (Nick Bosa).
San Francisco 49ers DE Nick Bosa and LB Fred Warner wait for a snap against the New York Giants at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California. (Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports)
But, San Francisco's edge in roster and coaching over Detroit is largely overstated. First of all, gimme Goff's playoff experience over Purdy who hasn't proven anything yet. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Goff has a higher passing grade this season and has thrown fewer turnover-worthy plays.
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Purdy got away with a bunch of terrible throws versus the Green Bay Packers in the NFC wild card round. Also, he didn't have a single fourth-quarter comeback or game-winning drive during the regular season. Goff had two fourth-quarter comebacks and three game-winning drives. Winning close games is the essence of elite quarterback play.
Detroit Lions QB Jared Goff strategizing with head coach Dan Campbell vs. Kansas City Chiefs in the 2023 NFL Kickoff Game at Arrowhead Stadium in Missouri. (Junfu Han/USA TODAY NETWORK)
We've seen Shanahan tighten up and get conservative in the playoffs. While I know what I'm getting from Lions head coach Dan Campbell. Detroit is one of the most aggressive teams in the NFL and Campbell will go down swinging. If I prefer backing a big underdog with an aggressive coach.
Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson is a future NFL head coach and an offensive mastermind. According to the film guys, Johnson changes up his game-plan weekly and is one of the best play sequencers in football.
Johnson has a stockpile of weapons at his disposal. Lions WR Amon-Ra St. Brown could be the best wideout for either team. Detroit's two-headed running attack of RB David Montgomery and rookie RB Jahmyr Gibbs nearly cancels out 49ers RB Christian McCaffrey. Lions rookie TE Sam LaPorta might be better than Niners TE George Kittle now.
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Furthermore, Detroit's offensive line is a top-five unit in the NFL. It gives up sacks at the fourth-best rate in the league and the Lions are fifth in yards per rush. The 49ers are 20th in sack rate and ranks 26th in rushing defense EPA/play and 24th in defensive rushing success rate.
Meaning, San Francisco's defense has regressed this season. If Detroit gets the ground game going, which it should be able to, the whole playbook is open for Johnson. Plus, in order to lay -7 or -7.5 points in a conference championship, the favorite needs to be dominant on both sides of the ball.
Lions RB Craig Reynolds gets a 1-yard TD vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the 2024 NFC divisional round playoff game at Ford Field in Detroit. (Eric Seals/USA TODAY NETWORK)
Also, the Lions can make the Niners one-dimensional. Detroit's defense is awful in pass coverage but sells out to stop the run. The Lions are fifth in yards per rush allowed. If they can force the Niners into passing situations, Detroit's pass rushers can pin their ears back and get after Purdy.
With that in mind, Lions pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson is a beast and Detroit's defense has the best pressure rate in the NFL. Aside from 49ers LT Trent Williams, who might be the best player on the field, the rest of San Francisco's offensive line is mediocre, at best.