The Genesis Invitational 2025 Best Bets Include Collin Morikawa, Will Zalatoris

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Relocating The Genesis Invitational 2025 from the Riviera Country Club to the Torrey Pines South Course in San Diego, California because of the Los Angeles wildfires was an obvious choice for the PGA TOUR. Torrey Pines hosted the Farmers Insurance Open last month, so it's set up for tournament golf. 

LISTEN: OutKick Bets Podcast's The Genesis Invitational 2025 Betting Preview ft. Mark Harris

More importantly, the PGA TOUR had to keep The Genesis in California to help raise funds for wildfire victims. That said, you can donate to several charitable foundations through the California Rises initiative here. Plus, Tiger Woods hosts this event, and he’s won eight times at Torrey Pines, including the 2008 U.S. Open. 

Unfortunately, Tiger withdrew from The Genesis because he is grieving the recent death of his mother. Nevertheless, this is still the best field so far this season, featuring every PGA TOUR player in the top 20 of the Official World Golf Rankings sans an injured Xander Schauffele.

You can read more about Torrey Pines and the tournament structure in the links below. My "outrights-only" betting strategy at last week's Waste Management Phoenix Open failed as all six of my picks to win lost. Shocker. My PGA TOUR 2025 bankroll -15.8 units (u) entering The Genesis. Let's tee off on this week's picks. 

The Genesis Invitational 2025 Betting Card

‘Horses for the Course’ 

The odds chosen are the best available at legal U.S. sportsbooks at the time of writing, according to OddsChecker.com. 

Collin Morikawa (+1600)

The two-time major champion led the 2021 U.S. Open at the Torrey Pines South Course in Strokes Gained (SG): Approach (APP), and was third in SG: Tee-to-Green (T2G) behind Branden Grace and Rory McIlroy. Morikawa’s ball-striking was down this time last season, but we're seeing peak Collin through the first two events of 2025. 

Morikawa was +8.9 SG: T2G in a second at The Sentry 2025 and +5.3 SG: T2G in a T17 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am, according to Bet The Number. Despite losing strokes with his irons in the three tournaments before the 2024 Masters, Morikawa still finished T3 at Augusta, a crossover course to Torrey Pines. 

His best finish last year was second in the Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village Golf Club. Torrey Pines and Muirfield are the only courses longer than 7,500 yards with greens at 5,000 square feet or smaller, per Betsperts’ Ron Klos. Plus, it's been raining in San Diego, so the course could be softer and Morikawa's long-iron shots could hold these small greens. 

This is a good place for Morikawa to end his winless drought because he is a West Coast kid. Poa is the only putting surface Collin gains strokes on, and it’s the surface for most West Coast courses. The 2020 PGA Championship at TPC Harding Park in San Francisco is one of his two major victories. TPC Harding Park is a comp course to Torrey Pines. 

BET 1.25u on Collin Morikawa (+1600) to profit 20u 

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Will Zalatoris (+5000)

Zalatoris is Horse for the Course with a T13 at the Farmers last year, second and lost in a playoff to Luke List in 2022, and T7 at the 2021 Farmers. Zalatoris was the most picked golfer by golf gambling content creators at the Farmers last month at +2000 odds, per @GolfTipsChecker on X. 

Will Zalatoris after missing a putt during the final round of the 2022 Farmers Insurance Open at the Torrey Pines' South Course. (Photo credit: Orlando Ramirez-Imagn Images)

Will Zalatoris after missing a putt during the final round of the 2022 Farmers Insurance Open at the Torrey Pines' South Course. (Photo credit: Orlando Ramirez-Imagn Images)

Granted, this is a stronger field, but this is a good price for Zalatoris, who plays well at tough courses, including Torrey Pines. His best finishes in 2024 were at similar venues. Zalatoris was T2 at last year’s Genesis, T4 at the 2024 Arnold Palmer Invitational and T9 at The Masters. He usually plays well at Augusta and on the West Coast. 

Willy Z isn’t good enough on the greens to win a putting contest or "birdie fest". However, his ball-striking is A1, so the tougher the course, the better Zalatoris’s chances are at contending. 

BET 0.4u on Will Zalatoris (+5000) to profit 20u 

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Viktor Hovland (+5000)

I’m betting on talent here. Hovland had the third-best odds to win The Genesis last year. Two of his three most recent wins — the Memorial and BMW Championship (second round of the FedExCup Playoffs), both in 2023 — are played at comp courses to Torrey Pines. 

It’s been a weird year-and-a-half for Hovland since, with him changing swing coaches a few times and his around-the-green game regressing to where it was before his most recent marquee wins. Yet, Hovland is still one of the most powerful ball-strikers in the world and Torrey Pines is a "bomber’s paradise" where driving distance and long irons separate golfers. 

He showed form in the AT&T last month when he was tied for second after the first round and Torrey Pines fits Hovland’s game better than Pebble Beach. The two-time Ryder Cupper was T2 at the 2021 Farmers, which uses the North and South courses for the first two rounds. 

Hovland shot a first-round 70 (-2) on the North Course and a second-round 65 (-7) on the South Course, the more difficult of the two. Patrick Reed won the 2021 Farmers by five strokes and shot a first-round 64 (-8) on the North Course. I.e. if the 2021 Farmers was played at the South Course only, Hovland would’ve finished with a better score than Reed. 

Lastly, Hovland owes me one after withdrawing from the 2021 U.S. Open at Torrey Pines because he got sand in his eye. His odds were +2400 that week, behind a bunch of guys who aren’t in the 2025 Genesis field, such as LIV Tour defectors Jon Rahm, Dustin Johnson, Bryson DeChambeau, and Brooks Koepka, and an injured Schauffele. 

BET 0.4u on Viktor Hovland (+5000) to profit 20u 

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Russell Henley (+6000)

He was in a three-way tie for first in the 2021 U.S. Open at Torrey Pines after three rounds with Mackenzie Hughes and Louis Oosthuizen before ejecting with a final round 76 (+5). I’m up-weighing Henley’s stats because he mostly plays in "big-boy tournaments." 

Nineteen of Henley's last 25 starts have been either a major, "signature event," or the FedExCup Playoffs, and he’s only missed one cut over that span, THE PLAYER Championship last year. His best finishes last season were a T4 at the Arnold Palmer, a T7 at the U.S. Open, and fifth at the 152nd Open Championship. 

Russell Henley hitting his second shot during the final round of the 2021 U.S. Open at Torrey Pines Golf Course, where the 2025 Genesis Invitational was relocated to. (Photo Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports)

Russell Henley hitting his second shot during the final round of the 2021 U.S. Open at Torrey Pines Golf Course, where the 2025 Genesis Invitational was relocated to. (Photo Credit: Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports)

Even though Henley isn’t long off the tee, he is one of the most accurate drivers on TOUR. He’s sixth this season in driving accuracy, ninth last year, and first two seasons ago. The rough at Torrey Pines is penal and, if you miss the fairway, it’s borderline impossible to birdie that hole. 

Henley has gained strokes on the greens in 10 of his 11 starts. This includes two majors, all three rounds of the FedExCup Playoffs, and he led the field in putting at Pebble Beach last month. Ultimately, I like Henley's odds. Henley is a four-time winner on TOUR, and there are winless players with worse prices. 

BET 0.33u on Russell Henley (+6000) to profit 20u 

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The Genesis Invitational 2025 One-And-Done Pick: Collin Morikawa 

Since this is a "signature event," it makes sense to use a favorite here. Plus, I'm in 2,498th place out of 4,500 entries, hence I'm throwing "game theory" out of the window. I'll be at Torrey Pines for the final round of The Genesis, and hopefully, I can witness Collin's first win since the 2023 ZOZO Championship in person. 

Previous Picks
  • Sony Open: Austin Eckroat ($0)
  • The American Express: Sam Burns ($57,640)
  • Farmers Insurance Open: Rico Hoey ($0)
  • AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: Jason Day ($368,500)
  • Waste Management Phoenix Open: Andrew Novak ($0)

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark, and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my PGA Tour 2025 betting record via X all season.