Head-To-Head Bets For Genesis Invitational 2024: Scheffler-Rory, Spieth-Burns
Since this is one of my favorite tournaments on the PGA Tour and Tiger Woods is playing, I'm beefing up my betting card for the Genesis Invitational 2024. It doesn't hurt that the NFL is done and the NBA is going on its All-Star break this weekend. But, I love the Riviera Country Club in Los Angeles and the Genesis has the best field on Tour to date.
LISTEN: OutKick Bets Podcast's Genesis Invitational 2024 Preview hosted by Geoff Clark featuring golf guru Mark Harris
With that in mind, I'm adding a few head-to-head bets to my Genesis 2024 card. I'll be honest and say it's been a piss-poor start for me betting on the PGA Tour 2024 season. Entering the Genesis, I'm down -20.99 units (u) and in desperate need of an outright. That said, I can chip away at my deficit with these three …
Genesis Invitational Tournament Matchup Bets
Stats provided by ‘Bet the Number’ from the Tour Junkies and Pat Mayo's ‘Fantasy National'.
Rory McIlroy (+135) vs. Scottie Scheffler
Look, Scottie is 1st in most of my models and I take no pleasure in fading him. But, Scheffler's putting is too poor to be laying -150 vs. World No. 2, Rory. Genesis has a 70-golfer field and Scheffler ranks 68th in 3-Putt Avoidance and Strokes Gained (SG): Putting from 10-15 feet over the last 36 rounds. Scottie would have at least five more wins over the last year if he could knock down a couple of putts.
(Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports)
Rory has two more recent wins than Scheffler: Hero Dubai Desert Classic on the DP World Tour in November 2023 and the Genesis Scottish Open in July 2023. McIlroy finished T66 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am in his last start. Otherwise, he has been inside the top 10 of every PGA Tour event since a T7 finish in the 2023 PGA Championship in May.
That's pretty much the end of my analysis. The bottom line is I make Rory a +110 'dog vs. Scottie and I feel like gambling.
Bet 1 unit (u) on Rory McIlroy (+135) > Scottie Scheffler at BetMGM
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Adam Scott (+110) vs. Max Homa
I build models using tools from Bet The Number and Fantasy National. Scott ranks slightly ahead of Homa in both for the Genesis. The data in my models include course history, SG: Putting on Poa greens (the grass used for Riviera's greens), recent form, SG: Approach (APP) from 150-200 yards out, Par 5 scoring, etc.
(Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports)
Both have won the Genesis. Homa's victory came in 2021, a year after Scott's. Homa finished solo 2nd at Riviera last year while Scott was 65th. But, Scott's game is in a better place right now. He finished T8 at last week's WM Phoenix Open and T20 at Pebble Beach two weeks ago. Homa missed the cut in Phoenix and was T66 at Pebble Beach.
Finally, Scott has been better with his irons lately. Homa has lost strokes on APP in three straight starts and Scott has gained strokes in three straight. Scott was +2.5 SG: APP at Pebble Beach and +6.5 SG: APP in Phoenix last weekend.
Bet 1u on Adam Scott (+110) over Max Homa at FanDuel
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Sam Burns (-120) vs. Jordan Spieth at DraftKings
Burns is close to winning another tournament and almost made my betting card for the Genesis. His pre-tournament odds are +2000 and I like Collin Morikawa and Ludvig Åberg more at similar prices. However, Burns has more SG: OTT, APP, and Putting over his last 24 rounds than Spieth. Also, Riviera is a "2nd shot golf course" and Jordan has been awful with his irons lately.
(Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports)
Spieth ranks 60th in this field for SG: APP and Burns is 21st over the last 36 rounds. Spieth's T6 finish in Phoenix last week is misleading. He was -3.2 SG: APP but made up for it with an insane short-game. Riviera is much tougher to chip and putt at than TPC Scottsdale. Regardless, Burns is one of the best putters on Tour and rolls the rock better on Poa greens.