Genesis Invitational 2023 'Horses For The Course', One-And-Done
The PGA Tour's 2024 "West Coast Swing" wraps up this week with the 2024 Genesis Invitational at Riviera Country Club in Pacific Palisades, California. Tiger Woods hosts and plays in the Genesis this week. Ironically, Tiger has never won this event, which kind of blows my mind.
READ: Nick Taylor Hereby Known As Mr. Clutch, Dustin Johnson Doesn't Need Practice, And The Year Of The Long Shot
This is the third "signature event" of the season. The Genesis has a total purse of $20 million with the winner taking home a cool $4 million. This is one of the few signature events with a cut. Golfers within 10 shots of the leader and inside the top 50 make the cut after 36 holes at Riviera.
Justin Rose and Matthieu Pavon are the only eligible golfers not in the 2024 Genesis field. Otherwise, the PGA Tour’s best will tee it up at Riviera including World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler and No. 2 Rory McIlroy. Neither of whom have won the Genesis.
Jon Rahm (+700) is the reigning Genesis Invitational champion but defected to the LIV Tour in the offseason. Rahm shot 17-under par in the 2023 Genesis and beat Max Homa, the 2021 Genesis champion, by two strokes.
For the record, my 2024 Waste Management Phoenix Open sucked from a betting perspective just like the rest of the season thus far. My PGA Tour 2024 betting balance fell to -20.99 units (u) after dumping -2.28u at the Phoenix Open.
Genesis Invitational ‘Horses For The Course’
- Stats courtesy of Bet The Number from the Tour Junkies, Fantasy National from Pat Mayo, and the PGA Tour.
Collin Morikawa
I was always betting Morikawa to win the Genesis. Morikawa is my favorite golfer because I successfully bet on him winning The Open Championship in 2021 at 37-to-1 when I first started betting on golf. His recent form is there and Collin plays well at Riviera.
Morikawa won the 2023 ZOZO Championship in October, tied for fifth at the Sentry in January, and tied for 14th in the shortened AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am two weeks ago. Over the last 20 rounds, he is fourth in this field for Birdies-or-Better average.
Per Fantasy National, Morikawa is 4th in total Strokes Gained (SG) in the last five Geneses. The two-time major champion tied for sixth in last year’s Genesis and tied for second in 2022. Poa is the only green surface Morikawa gains strokes. He was +2.8 SG: Putting in the Genesis last year and +6.8 SG: Putting in 2022.
(Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports)
Riviera is a "shot-makers" course and Collin is perhaps the most precise ball-striker in golf. Morikawa is 3rd in this field for SG: Approach (APP) over the last 50 rounds and 2nd in Good Drives Gained, which accounts for distance and accuracy off-the-tee (OTT).
He ranks third in my 40-round model at Bet The Number and fifth in my "mixed conditional model" at Fantasy National. Essentially, Morikawa is one of the best golfers in the world and hasn’t won a "big boy" event since The Open in 2021. Collin is due.
First thoroughbred for Riviera: Collin Morikawa
- Win: +1800 at FanDuel (1.25u to win 20u)
- Top-5: +300 at BetMGM (0.75u to win 2.25u)
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Ludvig Åberg
This kid is a soulless killer and I love it. He’s kind of like the Terminator of the PGA Tour. Honestly, I don’t feel good betting on Ludvig at this number because of the stacked Genesis field.
However, Åberg’s comp is "A Scottie Scheffler who can putt". He finished solo second behind Wyndham Clark in the weather-shortened Pebble Beach. Ludvig shot -16 at Pebble Beach with rounds of 68, 65, and 67.
Clark went nuclear with his putter and shot a third-round 60 (-12) to steal that tournament. But, if a fourth round got played at Pebble Beach, Ludvig would’ve won. Clark’s putting was unsustainable whereas Åberg’s ball-striking is predictive.
(Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports)
This brings me back to my original point, which is Ludvig’s game is too good to pass up. Åberg ranks third in my 40-round model at Bet The Number and he has the ninth-best odds to win the Genesis.
Ludvig ranks seventh or better in this field in Par 5 scoring, SG: Putting on Poa greens, APP shots from 150-200 yards, and Par 4 scoring. While I don't love betting a rookie at 20-to-1 odds at Riviera, Åberg's game fits this course and he's already a top-10 golfer on the PGA Tour.
Second thoroughbred for Riviera: Ludvig Åberg
- Win: +2000 at FanDuel (1u to win 20u)
- Top-10: +160 at BetMGM (1u to win 1.6u)
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Nicolai Höjgaard
This 22-year-old Dane gets to play in all PGA Tour "signature events" and majors after winning the 2023 DP World Tour Championship in November. Höjgaard made his PGA Tour debut at the Farmers Insurance Open at the end of January and played in the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am two weeks ago.
He finished solo 2nd at the Farmers and T31 at Pebble Beach. Höjgaard has picked up strokes OTT and in APP over his last six starts: Four on the DP World Tour and two on the PGA Tour. Furthermore, Höjgaard crushes the ball OTT and lights out with the flat-stick.
Over his last 24 rounds with shot-link data, Nicolai is driving the ball 15 more yards per tee shot than the field and hitting the ball nine mph faster, according to Bet The Number. He is 3rd in 3-Putt Avoidance and 5th in SG: Putting from 10-15 feet over the last 24 rounds, per Fantasy National.
(Ray Acevedo-USA TODAY Sports)
Also, Höjgaard was second in SG: OTT in the Farmers at Torrey Pines down in San Diego. Torrey Pines is another difficult course OTT with Poa greens designed by the same guy (William Bell) who did Riviera. If Nicolai can pick up strokes with the driver at Torrey Pines, he can at Riviera as well.
With that in mind, good drivers have success at Riviera. Past champions include Rahm, Joaquin Niemann, Dustin Johnson, and Bubba Watson. None of them are in this field because they all defected to the LIV Tour. But, Höjgaard can drive his way to success at Riviera like all those guys.
Third thoroughbred for Riviera: Nicolai Höjgaard
- Win: +6000 at FanDuel (0.33u to win 20u)
- Top-20: +160 at BetMGM (0.88u to win 1.33u)
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Sepp Straka
Over his last 36 rounds, Straka ranks 16th in this field for both Good Drives Gained and APP shots from 175-200 yards and eighth in APP shots from 150-175 yards out. These rounds were played at the AT&T Pebble Beach, Sentry 2024, and all three events in the 2023 FedExCup Playoffs.
It’s tough to hit the fairway at Riviera and there are a ton of APP shots from 150-200 yards out. "Good Drives Gained" blends distance with accuracy. On top of that, Straka was +3.1 SG: Putting at the 2023 Genesis and +4.1 SG: Putting two years ago.
(Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports)
Staka has true win equity as a two-time PGA Tour champion. He finished second at the 151st Open Championship in July 2023 two weeks after winning the 2023 John Deere Classic.
Sepp also finished T16 in the 2023 Memorial Tournament and T7 at the 2023 PGA Championship. I.e. Straka performs well in tough events with a loaded field. Essentially, Straka has value at this price with his precise ball-striking and spike-putting.
Fourth thoroughbred for Riviera: Sepp Straka
- Win: +10000 at FanDuel (0.2u to win 20u)
- Top-20: +200 to BetMGM (0.6u to win 1.2u)
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Harris English
The homie, and OutKick's golf guy, Mark Harris talked me into adding English to my betting card on this week's OutKick Bets Podcast previewing the 2024 Genesis. As Mark pointed out, English randomly pops up on leaderboards because he's one of the best putters on Tour.
Harris English putts during the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am. (Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports)
(Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports)
English finished T12 at last year's Genesis thanks to gaining 8.8 strokes on the greens. Since then, English finished T2 at the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational ("signature event"), T3 at the Wells Fargo Championship ("signature event"), and T8 at the U.S. Open.
Finally, English is driving the ball well lately and hitting his long irons well. Over the last 40 rounds, English is 10th in APP shots from 150-200 yards, per Bet The Number. English has gained distance OTT on the field in eight straight starts including two "signature events" and two FedExCup playoff rounds.
Fifth thoroughbred for Riviera: Harris English
- Win: +11000 at FanDuel (0.18u to win 20u)
- Top-20: +188 at BetMGM (0.63u to win 1.18u)
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Tiger Woods
The good thing about betting Tiger is I don't have to list all the stats and accolades. Everyone just gets it. He's the GOAT and this is a FOMO bet. If Woods is in contention Sunday and wearing his red polo, I want a piece of the action.
Tiger Woods hits an approach shot on the 11th hole fairway at The 2023 Genesis Invitational. (Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports)
He made the cut at the Genesis last year by shooting 1-under par and finishing T41. Tiger played with Rory and Justin Thomas in the 1st and 2nd rounds and out-drove both of them. Can he hold up for a full four rounds? Probably not. But, am I betting Tiger regardless? You damn right I am.
Sixth thoroughbred for Riviera: Tiger Woods
- Win: +15000 at FanDuel (0.13u to win 20u)
- Top-20: +333 at BetMGM (0.34u to win 1.13u)
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Genesis Invitational 2024 'One-And-Done' Pick: Collin Morikawa
Through the 1st five events of the 2024 Mayo Cup (the One-And-Done contest I entered this season), I'm in a tie for 807th place out of 4,400 entries with $1,151,080 collected.
Previous Picks
- J.T. Poston for the Sony Open: 6th for $300,875
- Xander Schauffele for the American Express: T3 for $635,600
- Sahith Theegala for the Farmers Insurance Open: T64 for $19,080
- Jordan Spieth for the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am: T39 for $70,125
- Tom Kim for the WM Phoenix Open: T17 for $125,400
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