Game 1 Features A Two-Unit Bet

Padres vs. Braves, 12:20 ET

There aren't a lot of times that you see the teams that squared off on Sunday Night Baseball taking each other on the following day. It is even more rare that there is a doubleheader the day following baseball's only true primetime feature. That's how the situation sets up today for us. We have two games to choose from today, but we are going to focus in on the first game between the San Diego Padres and the Atlanta Braves on a jam-packed getaway day for the clubs. 

The Padres have taken the first two games of the series and made the Braves offense look like mortals. In the series opener, they took the game 3-1 and then in last night's game they ended up losing 9-1. Holding the Braves to two runs over two games is impressive stuff. The Padres needed to do well too. They are 24-24 now after last night's win, but before they came to Atlanta they lost three straight games. They are still looking to find the right combination for the team to be successful. They made a great trade already this year with the acquisition of Luis Arraez, and it has paid dividends for them as he has been a great addition. The record is just 7-5 in games Arraez has played with the Padres, but that's not terrible either. The reality is that the Padres are probably just playing for a Wild Card spot this season, but they really have no excuses if they can't capture one of those three spots. In this game, they put one of their other acquisitions (this one came in Spring Training), Dylan Cease on the hill. Cease hasn't quite been as good as his top-3 Cy Young finisher season, but he's been strong. Cease has a 2.45 ERA and a 0.78 WHIP which is tied for second in baseball, and he is fifth with 68 strikeouts. Cease has been very good on the road, not allowing more than two runs in any game and posting a quality start in all five of them. The Braves hitters don't have a ton of experience against Cease, but they don't have much success in 25 at-bats either. 

Apr 16, 2024; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA;  San Diego Padres pitcher Dylan Cease (84) throws a pitch during the first inning against the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

The Astros looked terrible, the Royals are 10 games above .500, the Cardinals seemingly forgot how to play baseball, the Athletics are at least competitive, and the Braves offense has already had some prolonged slumps this season. All of those things were things I didn't see happening this season. After tearing the cover off of the ball in what seemed like every single game last season, the Braves look rather average in certain stretches of games. I suppose if you look at any team over the course of a season, you'll see that there are swoons. The Braves have scored one run in each of their past three games, and have only scored more than four runs in two games this month. In order to split the series with the Padres, the Braves need to win both games today. Looking to combat against Cease is Reynaldo Lopez. Lopez has been surprisingly good this season. Lopez has a 1.34 ERA but doesn't qualify to be among the ERA leaders. He has been great at home with a 0.77 ERA on his home mound over four starts. He has only allowed six earned runs over the season and just two of those runs have come at home this season. Arraez has the most experience against Lopez and he is 7-for-20, which is half of the hits that Lopez has allowed to Padres hitters. The rest of the team is just 7-for-32 against him. 

This game should be a tight one. The Braves aren't playing very well on offense right now, and we have two really strong pitchers going. The books know this as the line for the game is 7.5. I like the under quite a bit in this one. An aspect I didn't even mention is that the teams played roughly 12 hours ago and know there is another game looming after. I'm going to back under 7.5 in this game for two units. 

For more sports betting information and plays, follow David on X/Twitter: @futureprez2024