Gambling Rambling For 2023 NFL Conference Championships

The NFL Conference Championship games are awesome from a viewing perspective but kinda suck from a betting aspect. Frankly, I won't place big bets on either game but I want to discuss both.

The 1-seed Philadelphia Eagles host the 2-seed San Francisco 49ers in the NFC title game and the 3-seed Cincinnati Bengals visit the 1-seed Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Conference Championship.

All four coasted to victories in the NFL Divisional round and these are clearly the best four teams in the league. There are solid arguments for all sides and my picks for the title games are more leans than locks.

(Check out this week's OutKick Bets Podcast hosted Geoff Clark featuring Dan Zaksheske breaking down both NFL Conference Championship matchups.)

NFC Conference Championship, Sunday at 3 p.m. ET

*Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook

San Francisco 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles

The NFC West champion Niners actually beat the NFC East champion Eagles 17-11 in Philadelphia in Week 2 last season as 3-point road favorites.

That was Eagles coach Nick Sirianni's 2nd game ever and Philly QB Jalen Hurts has gone from a fringe franchise guy in 2021 to an MVP-caliber QB this season.

Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts gestures for a first down vs. the New York Giants during the NFC Divisional Playoff game at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia. (Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)

San Francisco has the coaching edge with Kyle Shanahan guiding the 49ers to their third NFC title game in the last four years. But, the Eagles have the edge at QB since Niners rookie QB Brock Purdy is making his 8th career start.

Both teams are elite in the trenches on each side of the ball and both have a war chest of skill position players. I.e. there isn't much separating these two teams.

With that in mind, let's throw a quarter-unit on two-leg 6-point "teaser". Take San Francisco's ATS up and the total down for an Over-leg.

A "teaser" is when you add six points to a line but it has to be combined with two legs. DraftKings Sportsbook offers two-leg teasers at a -120 price point.

Since 2021, the 49ers are 7-1 on a 6-point teaser with their only loss being that 44-23 blowout to the Chiefs in Week 7 this season. They are also 7-1 on a 6-point teaser in the playoffs since 2019.

As for the total, everyone is hitting the Under. According to VSIN, more than 70% of the money is on the Under, which is rare for an NFL primetime game.

Not only can we fade the public by teasing this 49ers-Eagles total down. But, we're also backing two of the most offensively innovative coaches with insane rosters.

San Francisco 49ers TE George Kittle and WR Deebo Samuel enter the field at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara, California. (Douglas Stringer/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

Granted, both teams have a much higher rushing rate than passing, Shanahan has been conservative historically in the postseason and both defenses are stacked.

The perception is 49ers-Eagles is going to be your old-school smash-mouth playoff game. Yet how often do NFL games go according to plan?

This is just a hunch but I like the 49ers-Eagles to finish around 24-21 with Philadelphia most likely going to the Super Bowl.

(For what it's worth, I co-sign Zaksheske's player prop bets such as Eagles WR A.J. Brown OVER receiving yards and Eagles RB Miles Sanders UNDER rushing yards.)

NFC Conference Championship Bet: 49ers +8.5 & OVER 40 on a 6-point "teaser" at DraftKings

The San Francisco 49ers +8.5 and OVER 40 in Niners-Eagles on a 6-point "teaser" from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Saturday, Jan. 28 at 1 p.m. ET.

AFC Conference Championship, Sunday at 6:30 p.m. ET

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs

Call me crazy but I think Cincy gets the full Patrick Mahomes experience Sunday. Mahomes left with an injury in the first-half of KC's AFC Divisional round game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars.

The most important Bengals-Chiefs story the whole week was Mahomes' health. Mahomes insists he's good to go and the spread bounced around all week amid the confusion.

Apparently, the market as of Saturday believes Mahomes' high-ankle sprain is reason to back the red-hot Bengals as road 'dogs. Also, Cincy QB Joe Burrow is 3-0 vs. Mahomes.

Bengals QB Joe Burrow connects with Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes after the AFC title game at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. (Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images)

But, I believe Mahomes will be effective enough to put 30 points in the AFC title game. Plus the Bengals have become public 'dogs, which tend to get slaughtered by the sportsbooks.

I'm even willing to sprinkle on Mahomes' anytime TD prop at (+450). Chiefs coach Andy Reid is an offensive mastermind and Mahomes is an alpha.

I could see Reid cooking up an RPO for the QB in the red zone or Mahomes just saying "f*** it" and sneaking in for a TD on the goal line.

Mahomes scored on a goal line sneak in Kansas City's 27-24 loss in Cincinnati in Week 13. He's also scored five career non-passing TDs in his 12 career playoff games.

Furthermore, KC's defense is the most underrated unit of the four remaining playoff teams. Chiefs All-Pro DT Chris Jones is a force-multiplier and the Bengals have cluster injuries on their offensive line.

Chiefs DE Frank Clark celebrates with DT Chris Jones after sacking Niners QB Jimmy Garoppolo in a preseason game at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri. (Peter Aiken/Getty Images)

Cincinnati's offensive line is going to have their hands full with Jones, which could give one-on-one matchups for KC's other pass rushers vs. Bengals' backup linemen.

Burrow tends to hold onto the ball a little longer for Bengals WRs to win their matchups. This is why he takes a bunch of sacks. Chiefs DE Frank Clark's OVER 0.75 sacks (+160) is worth a sprinkle too.

Somehow, Jones has no sacks in his 13 career playoff games but Clark has 12 sacks in 15 career playoff games, nine of them in his 10 postseason contests as a Chief.

Again, these are mostly leans and sprinkles however I'm on KC's ML, Mahomes' anytime TD prop and Clark to have at least one sack.

AFC Conference Championship Gambling Action

Geoff Clark's bet slip from DraftKings Sportsbook for the Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs 2023 AFC title game as of Saturday, Jan. 28th at 2 p.m. ET.