Friday's Sweet 16 Gambling Locks Include Xavier, SDSU-Alabama's Total
The Sweet 16 of the 2023 NCAA Tournament continues Friday with four games from the South and Midwest Regionals. My two Friday Sweet 16 looks are in the San Diego State-Alabama and Xavier-Texas matchups.
For what it's worth, I lean to the 6-seed Creighton Bluejays covering as -10 favorites over 15-seed Princeton Tigers in the South Region and to the 5-seed Miami Hurricanes keeping it close as +7 'dogs vs. the 1-seed Houston Cougars.
OutKick Bets Podcast With Geoff Clark: Sweet 16 Gambling Looks Ft. Dan Zaksheske
Sweet 16: 5-seed San Diego State Aztecs vs. 1-seed Alabama Crimson Tide in the South Region at 6:30 p.m. ET
First of all, both teams' defenses are more efficient than the offenses. According to KenPom.com, San Diego State ranks 5th in adjusted defensive rating out of 363 programs and Alabama ranks 3rd.
The Aztecs are going to turn this game into a rock-fight because that's their best chance of upsetting the Crimson Tide. SDSU should have success controlling the tempo since Alabama struggles with ball security.
Per KenPom.com, the Crimson Tide is 226th in offensive turnover rate (TOV%) and 312th in defensive TOV%. The Aztecs are above-average in both offensive and defensive TOV%.
San Diego State Aztecs PG Keshad Johnson blocks a Charleston Cougar in the 1st round of the 2023 NCAA Tournament at Amway Center in Orlando, Florida. (Kevin Sabitus/Getty Images)
SDSU's opponents rank 346th in pace, per Ken Pom. Opponents get out in transition at the 2nd-lowest rate in the country vs. the Aztecs and they are 14th in defensive effective field goal rate (eFG%) in the fastbreak, per Hoop-Math.com.
San Diego State has gone Under the total in 10 consecutive games. Alabama is 1-5 to the Under in the last six and rank 345th in consistency, per Haslametrics.com. The Crimson Tide scored just 28 first-half points last round vs. Maryland.
This is a Pros vs. Joe's game in the betting market. DraftKings Sportsbook is reporting via VSIN, that roughly 60% of the money is on the Under in San Diego State-Alabama. Whereas nearly 60% of the bets are on the Under.
BET: UNDER 137 in San Diego State-Alabama (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook, down to 136
Odds for the UNDER in San Diego State Aztecs vs. the Alabama Crimson Tide in the Sweet 16 of the 2023 NCAA Tournament from DraftKings Sportsbook.
Sweet 16: 3-seed Xavier Musketeers vs. 2-seed Texas Longhorns in the Midwest Region at 9:45 p.m. ET
I cannot figure out why the betting market sees 4.5 points worth of difference between these two teams. A vast majority of the action is on Texas because everyone loves the Big XII and the Big East is underrated.
The Longhorns have a slightly tougher strength of schedule. But, five of Xavier's nine losses were by 1 or 2 points. The Musketeers are 7-2-1 against the spread (ATS) vs. ranked teams and 7-3-1 ATS as an underdog.
These teams have similar shot profiles, the Musketeers has more size and the experience is a wash. The only strength-on-weakness edge here is in favor of Xavier on the glass.
Xavier Musketeers reacts to a big moment against the Pittsburgh Panthers in the 2nd round of the 2023 NCAA Tournament at Greensboro Coliseum in North Carolina. (Jacob Kupferman/Getty Images)
The Musketeers are 100th in offensive rebounding and the Longhorns are 219th in defensive rebounding, per Ken Pom. Xavier is better than Texas in three of the "four factors" including eFG%, rebounding rate, and TOV%.
Also, the Longhorns are a terrible shooting team. They rank 277th in true shooting rate, which factors in field goal, 3-points and free throw percentages.
Texas hit just one 3-pointer in a 71-66 Round of 32 victory over Penn State. That Longhorns' victory was more about the Nittany Lions crapping the bed than anything Texas did right.
Xavier on the other hand is 12th in eFG% and 3rd in 3-point percentage and the Musketeers have four starters that can shoot 3-pointers including 7-foot big Jack Nunge.
BET: Xavier +4.5 (-110) at DraftKings, down to +3.5
The Xavier Musketeers' odds vs. Texas Longhorns in the Sweet 16 of the 2023 NCAA Tournament from DraftKings Sportsbook.