Freeland Will Keep Braves On Struggle Bus

Braves vs. Rockies, 3:10 ET

Normally, Sunday is a day that features every team playing as they are closing out the weekend series. This Sunday is slightly different because we don't have everyone taking the diamond, but the vast majority of teams are playing and still gives us a chance to find some gems to bet on. Baseball has been doing rather well lately and I think we can get it to continue as we get into the "dog days" of August. Today we focus on a team that is currently suffering through the slogs of the long season, the Braves, taking on a team that has suffered all season, the Rockies. 

The Braves could benefit from a jolt or spark right about now. The team, which has dominated the NL East for a few years now, is currently sitting outside of the playoffs. They are highly unlikely to put any legitimate fight for the East division crown, which leaves one of three Wild Card spots for them. The problem is that the Mets have played unbelievably well since June 12th, and the Padres and Diamondbacks have also gotten substantially better. This doesn't mean the season is lost for the Braves, but they are struggling right now.  Since the All-Star Break, the team is 7-13, not counting Saturday's game which isn't official at the time of this writing. They've already suffered through two separate six-game losing streaks, and when it looked like they were turning a corner and getting out of the funk by winning six of seven games, they ended up losing six straight. This afternoon, they put Spencer Schwellenbach on the hill. The Braves really could use another Spencer (Strider) right about now. Schwellenbach has been decent enough in his outings for the Braves. Specifically over the past five games, he has been very strong with four quality starts, and just one game where he allowed more than one earned run. He hasn't faced the Rockies in the past so he should have some luck against them early, but pitching in Coors is no easy feat and he already has 9 homers allowed in roughly 65 innings, including three games where he has allowed multiple long balls.

May 29, 2024; Cumberland, Georgia, USA; Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Spencer Schwellenbach (56) tosses the ball for a force out after fielding a ground ball against the Washington Nationals during the first inning at Truist Park. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

It is pretty well established by now that the Rockies are not a very good baseball team. The club hasn't seen the playoffs in years and even being competitive for a full season seems like a true test for the franchise. The biggest question that remains for the team is if they will lose 100 games or not this season. As of now, they are on pace to do it, but it should be fairly close. The team is beyond brutal on the road, and has just 23 home games remaining. Assuming they go .500 in their home games, that will put them at about 54 wins for the season, so they need to win another nine on the road to get over .500. They've only won 17 on the road all season, so that is a bit of a tall task. They have a surprisingly good chance today with Kyle Freeland on the mound. He is one of the few pitchers that actually improves when pitching in Coors. At home this season, Freeland has a 2.51 ERA compared to a 5.65 ERA overall. He has only made five starts at home this season, but he hasn't allowed more than three earned runs in any game. Perhaps most impressively, he has only allowed one home run in those starts. Braves hitters have been strong against Freeland in the past with a collective .287 batting average and five different players hitting a homer against him. 

This is a game that you might want to sprinkle on the Rockies moneyline. Although Schwellenbach has been pitching better lately, you have no idea how he will perform in his first Coors Field start. He is also susceptible to the long ball which could make it difficult for the Braves to keep a lead. I think the best look here is to take the under for the Braves team total through five in this game. I like the way Freeland pitches at home, and I think he can hold down this team that is struggling significantly right now. 

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