Freeland At Home Has Been Amazing For Rockies

Mets vs. Rockies, 8:40 ET

As you grow up, you may have been allowed to touch a hot stove once. It could be considered a form of tough love, or maybe it is the idea that kids need to learn things themselves. So, as a little kid, when the stove was hot, you may have gotten a warning, or maybe not. But, after touching it one time you probably were smart enough to not ever touch a hot stove again. What does this have to do with betting? Well, there are times that I get burned but still try and touch the stove again. This could be one of those times as the Mets take on the Rockies.

The Mets are the single greatest turnaround of the MLB season. Don't get it crazy or anything, I mean just this season, not of all time. I'm sure some teams have performed better, and even the Astros might be willing to lay claim to the title this year. The Mets looked like an absolute dumpster fire and are now in a position to win a Wild Card spot. What changed with the team? Probably their offensive output is the biggest reason that they went from a sub-.500 club to being six games over entering tonight's contest. On June 12, the team started the day nine games under, meaning they've gone 31-16 over their past 47 games, good for a .660 winning percentage. Is all of this sustainable? Unlikely, but the team is playing good baseball and after last year's debacle, I suppose the Mets fans deserve this impressive run. They put Luis Severino on the mound against the Rockies tonight. He has been a solid pitcher for the club this season with a 7-4 record, 3.93 ERA, and a 1.24 WHIP. He does tend to pitch worse on the road, but it isn't drastically bad. He also has only allowed 14 homers in 21 starts this season. Severino has never pitched at Coors and only has six total at-bats against him from two Rockies hitters.

Jul 20, 2024; Miami, Florida, USA;  New York Mets starting pitcher Luis Severino (40) throws against the Miami Marlins in the first inning at loanDepot Park. Mandatory Credit: Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports

I am sure there are some desperate Rockies fans out there who are wishing Colorado could pull off some sort of massive turnaround like the Mets. Unfortunately, the team hasn't been good at all this season, and there is very little hope for coming seasons. I've detailed this in the past, but the team doesn't have reliable starting pitching, their best player in the past decade was traded away (Nolan Arenado) and they replaced him with a guy who is constantly injured (Kris Bryant). The farm system is ranked 21st according to MLB.com. They do have a few players in the top 100, but only one pitcher, and that won't cut it long-term. One guy that has been good for the team over the years, but not consistently good, is tonight's starter, Kyle Freeland. Freeland used to be a moneymaker when he was on the mound at Coors. A few years ago, at home, he was an under machine. This season, he has only made four starts there, but he has once again been insanely good at home, and very bad on the road. He has allowed just five earned runs over 24 innings on the home mound. He has pitched three consecutive quality starts at home, and the Rockies are 3-1 overall in his home games. Mets hitters do have success against Freeland, hitting .311 against him, so it is possible the club could get to him.

This is normally a game that you'd look at and say "The Mets are the better team, let's take them and move on." I'm here to tell you I don't think the value is on the Mets. In this one, with Freeland on the mound, and Severino on the road, I lean toward the Rockies taking this one. The Rockies are bad, but they are about .500 at home (still under, but I want to say something positive about them). I got burned taking the Marlins last night, but I'll put my hand on the stove again and try to grab the Rockies here at plus money. 

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