Fourth Of July MLB 'Locks': Orioles-Mariners, Rays-Royals

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Baseball, fireworks, and grilling are the American party favors for Independence Day. As a patriotic American, I'll partake in all of these things on the Fourth of July with a heavier emphasis on "baseball." With that in mind, I'm celebrating America's birthday by gambling on MLB. Here are my two favorite MLB bets for Thursday. 

MLB betting card for July 4 

  • 1.25u on the Tampa Bay Rays -125 moneyline vs. the Kansas City Royals (DraftKings).
  • 1.54u on the Baltimore Orioles -154 moneyline vs. the Seattle Mariners (FanDuel).

Baltimore Orioles (-154) over Seattle Mariners, 4:10 p.m. ET

The Orioles are looking to finish off a three-game sweep of the Mariners. Baltimore won the first two games of this series 6-1. The Orioles are sending their ace to the hill Thursday, RHP Corbin Burnes (9-3, 2.28 ERA). He won the 2021 NL Cy Young and has the second-best odds at DraftKings to win the 2024 AL Cy Young. 

Burnes beat the Mariners in May, pitching 6.0 innings with no earned runs, 11 strikeouts, and 1 walk. Seattle's starter Thursday, RHP Bryce Miller (6-7, 3.88 ERA), lost to Baltimore in May, allowing 4 earned runs with 1 strikeout and 1 walk. 

The O's rank in the top five for ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ vs. right-handed pitching, per FanGraphs. And the Mariners rank 20th or worse in those advanced hitting stats. Finally, over the last two weeks, Baltimore's lineup is second in WAR and Seattle's is 28th. 

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Tampa Bay Rays (-125) over Kansas City Royals, 8:10 p.m. ET 

This is the Rays-Royals rubber match with Tampa Bay winning the first 5-1 and then Kansas City tied the series with a 4-2 win Wednesday. Rays RHP Zach Eflin (4-5, 3.92 ERA) is on the bump Thursday. The Royals counter with RHP Alec Marsh (6-5, 4.19 ERA). The Rays have edges in relief pitching and recent production at the plate. 

KC's three best relievers by FIP are taxed and probably won't be used July 4. While Tampa's bullpen has its best relievers available. Over the last two weeks, the Rays have been in the top 10 for wRC+, wOBA, and WAR, per FanGraphs. Whereas the Royals rank 25th or worse in all of those metrics. 

Tampa Bay Rays OF Josh Lowe hits a home run vs. the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park. (Philip G. Pavely-USA TODAY Sports)

Tampa Bay Rays OF Josh Lowe hits a home run vs. the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park. (Philip G. Pavely-USA TODAY Sports)

Furthermore, the AL East is the best division in MLB and the AL Central is one of the worst. Entering Thursday, KC is 48-40 and Tampa is 43-43. However, by the end of the year, I'd bet the Rays have a better record. 

Lastly, per Pregame.com, more money is on the Rays and more bets are on the Royals as of 11 a.m. ET Thursday. Tampa's moneyline has gone from a -107 opener to the current number. Since the public doesn't move odds in regular-season MLB, that is probably sharp money. 

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Follow me on X (or Twitter, whatever) @Geoffery-Clark and check out my OutKick Bets Podcast for more betting content and random rants. I'll add bets to my MLB 2024 betting record via X all season.