Four 'Sucker' NBA Wagers Worth Making Wednesday
It's been a few days since last dipping my toe into the NBA betting waters. My 0-2 performance this past Sunday has absolutely nothing to do with that. Instead, the NBA's Monday and Tuesday slates just sucked. It was a combo of uninteresting games and BS "load management".
That said, the NBA scheduled 10 games Wednesday and I'm using this as a chance to build up my bankroll ahead of NFL Super Wild Card weekend. Or at least that's the idea behind my four ...
NBA Wednesday Best Bets
Oklahoma City Thunder (-4.5) at Miami Heat, 7:30 p.m. ET
As a "Heat Culture guy" it pains me to fade them at home. But, Miami is 0-3 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) as a home underdog. The Heat have a -5.0 spread differential in those games and this is a bad matchup for them.
I like Miami starting guards Tyler Herro and Duncan Robinson but they are bad defenders. Granted, Heat coach Erik Spoelstra usually works around that. Yet, Spo's magic won't work vs. Thunder All-Star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Thunder PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander drives to the basket around Miami Heat SG Tyler Herro at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City. (Alonzo Adams-USA TODAY Sports)
OKC relentlessly attacks the basket and ranks 5th in paint points per game (PPG). According to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG), Miami is 28th in defensive field goal shooting at the rim and 22nd against short-mid-range jumpers.
Finally, both run a ton of half-court plays. However, the Thunder lead the NBA in 3-point shooting and have a offensive and defensive efficiency in the half-court, per CTG.
My prediction: Thunder 126, Heat 117
Houston Rockets at Chicago Bulls (-3.5), 8 p.m. ET
Houston's defense falls off of a cliff on the road. The Rockets are 2nd in defensive rating in their home gym but 21st in away games, according to CTG. They allow 9.9 more PPG on the road.
Also, Houston is a public 'dog, which tend to get slaughtered by sportsbooks. Per Pregame.com, more than 80% of the action in the consensus sports betting market is on the Rockets. Well, they are 2-11 SU as road underdogs with a -6.4 scoring margin.
Bulls SF DeMar DeRozan shoots a fadeaway over Philadelphia 76ers SF Tobias Harris at the United Center in Chicago. (Quinn Harris/Getty Images)
The opposite is true for the Bulls; they allow 8.8 fewer PPG on the road. Plus, Chicago runs a lot of pick-and-roll (PnR) offense through ball handlers and rank 9th in PnR offensive efficiency. Houston has a below-average defensive efficiency vs. PnR action through ball handlers.
Lastly, the Rockets are missing forward Dillon Brooks who is one of the best wing defenders in the NBA. Without Brooks on the floor, Bulls wing DeMar DeRozan can pick apart Houston's defense.
My prediction: Bulls 115, Rockets 104
New Orleans Pelicans (-2) at Golden State Warriors, 8:30 p.m. ET
I'm just going to follow the money here. The Warriors are home 'dogs despite having Steph Curry and Klay Thompson in the projected starting 5. They are 3-0 SU and ATS in the last three meetings with New Orleans. The Dubs whooped the Pelicans 130-102 in NOLA in October.
Furthermore, Golden State's defense has been trash lately. Over the past two weeks, the Warriors are 29th in non-garbage time defensive rating, according to CTG. The Pelicans are 11-3 SU vs. bottom-10 defenses. They have a +14.9 net rating and +8.6 spread differential in those games.
Golden State Warriors' Stephen Curry drives to the hoop on New Orleans Pelicans wing Brandon Ingram in an NBA game at Chase Center in San Francisco. (Loren Elliott/Getty Images)
More importantly, the Warriors are missing three key contributors: Draymond Green, Chris Paul, and defensive guard Gary Payton II. Draymond is Golden State's defensive anchor. CP3 has a +9.7 on/off net rating and GP2 is +8.2, per CTG.
There is a strength-on-weakness edge in NOLA's favor as well. The Pelicans play aggressive defense and rank 7th in defensive turnover rate (TOV%), according to CTG. The Warriors are 27th in points off of turnovers allowed per game.
My prediction: Pelicans 119, Warriors 113
Toronto Raptors at Los Angeles Clippers (-10), 10:30 p.m. ET
The Raptors are on the 2nd of a back-to-back (B2B). They lost in the same building they are playing in Wednesday, 132-131, to the Los Angeles Lakers. Toronto is 2-4 SU and ATS on the 2nd leg of a B2B. One of those losses were to the crappy Detroit Pistons who have lost 33 of their last 34 games.
LAC is 6-1 SU and ATS vs. opponents on the 2nd of a B2B, according to CTG. The Clippers have a +14.4 scoring margin and +8.9 spread differential in those contests.
Los Angeles Clippers All-Star Kawhi Leonard dribbles around Raptors wing Scottie Barnes at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto, Canada. (Cole Burston/Getty Images)
Adding to that, Kawhi Leonard just doesn't let his former team beat him. Since leaving the Raptors to join the Clippers, Kawhi is 6-0 SU against Toronto and LAC has four double-digit wins.
Leonard has a career-best 62.4% true shooting. Kawhi has played so well that the Clippers extended his contract by three years worth $152.4 million. They are at full strength the vibes are high in Los Angeles.