Four NFL Betting Picks From Analyst On 32-14 Run
We've had a good run with our NFL betting picks on the OutKick Bets with Geoff Clark podcast. So far this season, we're cashing at a nearly 70% clip (32-14).
At some point, it will all come crashing down around me (see how I switched from "we" when I was talking positive stuff to "me" when I was talking about negative stuff?) but until then, let's keep making money!
Here's a recap of our Week 13 NFL action:
Week 13 NFL Betting Picks (2-1)
New York Jets at Minnesota Vikings Under 44.5 ❌
Pittsburgh Steelers at Atlanta Falcons Under 42 ✅
New York Giants +2.5 over Washington Commanders ✅
Week 14 NFL Betting Picks
Baltimore Ravens +2.5 at Pittsburgh Steelers
I really wish the Ravens had lost last week with Tyler Huntley because we could have gotten a much better number here. But still, we get the much better team as an underdog, so that's an easy trigger pull for me.
I know everyone crushes me for this, but ... *whispers* Tyler Huntley isn't THAT much of a drop-off from Lamar Jackson. Am I saying I would rather have Huntley? No, I am not. I am saying that he can run relatively the same offense with just slightly less athleticism and slightly worse arm.
I am confident enough in Tyler Huntley to make the Ravens one of my NFL betting picks this week. (Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images)
Generally, starting QBs in the NFL are worth between 3-10 points against the spread, depending on the quarterback and the backup. Here, I don't think Lamar is worth the overcompensation on this line.
The Steelers are one of the worst teams in the NFL. I do think Mike Tomlin is a Top 5 NFL coach and has gotten as much from this team as he possibly could, but their 5-7 record is misleading. They've FEASTED on the NFC South, going 3-0 with Carolina left to play (likely meaning an NFC South sweep).
Against everyone else, they're 2-7. And their big win of the season was an opening win over Cincinnati. That's not the same Bengals team that beat the Chiefs and should not be treated as such. Their other win was over the Indianapolis Colts.
I reference the EPA/play chart a lot because it has been very good to me this year. And the fact is that the Ravens are a tier better than the Steelers and yet are underdogs.
I get it, this is based on Lamar Jackson playing quarterback. But Huntley played most of the game last week and ultimately led them on a game-winning drive. People will look back at what Baltimore did last year with Huntley starting in place of an injured Jackson. They went 1-3. Not great.
However, as always, context is necessary. Three of the four games were against teams that made the playoffs last season. And those were the three losses. Plus, they lost those games by a combined five points. They beat the only non-playoff team they faced, which is exactly the situation here. And, even though they did lose three games, two of them would have been covered by a 2.5-point spread.
At the very least, Huntley keeps the Ravens in the game late. With that being the case, I'll take the underdog with the better roster.
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills Over 43.5
This one is pretty simple: fade public perception. Both of these teams have outstanding defenses, that's true. And these teams have already played a low-scoring contest, a 20-17 upset win for New York over Buffalo. Plus, the Bills just held the Patriots to 10 points in front of a national audience.
That's the perfect time to zig when everyone else is zagging. First, the Jets have opened up their offense with Mike White. In his last two games as the starter, Zach Wilson attempted a total of 47 passes -- one of the included games is the Buffalo game, by the way. Conversely, Mike White threw 57 passes LAST WEEK ALONE.
Mike White is no stranger to airing it out, so we'll back the Jets/Bills over with our NFL betting picks. (Photo by Adam Bettcher/Getty Images)
I expect the Jets to trail in this game and that means they will need to air it out. They clearly have no issues letting Mike White do that. And the Bills, although they'll likely play from ahead, don't just shell up and run the football.
In fact, the Bills are second only to the Chiefs in Pass Rate Over Expected (PROE). That simply means that Buffalo throws the ball in running situations (i.e. when leading, on first down, second-and-short, etc.) more than almost any team.
Plus, I think there's a major revenge factor here for the Bills since they just lost to the Jets. I don't see them getting a lead and just milking the clock -- I think they're out to prove a point.
One last note: according to Football Outsiders these are two of the fastest-paced teams in the NFL. They don't like to run a lot of play clock, even with a lead. I think conventional wisdom is that a divisional game will be low scoring, but I see this one playing out quite differently.
Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys Under 45.5
Fade recency bias. How many times am I going to say it this season? Louder, for the people in the back? OK ... FADE RECENCY BIAS!
The Dallas Cowboys have been putting it on teams lately. They dropped a 54-spot on Sunday night in front of a national audience against the Colts. They also scored 40 against the Vikings in Week 11. And, they put 49 on the board against the Bears in Week 8.
So, yeah, Dallas could get to this number by itself. But I don't think they will. Why? It's a long season. In the grand scheme of things, this game just doesn't matter all that much. Dallas is a 17-point favorite. They could probably not play Dak Prescott, Micah Parsons and Trevon Diggs and still win.
At some point, you have to make some business decisions. This is a team that has Super Bowl aspirations. Furthermore, they have Houston this week and Jacksonville next week before a massive showdown with the NFC-leading Philadelphia Eagles followed by matches with the AFC South-leading Tennessee Titans and a divisional rivalry game against Washington.
To me, that means the goal is to get through this game as quickly and healthy as possible. I think Dallas takes an early lead and there's no reason to keep the gas pedal down. Turn around, hand the ball to Zeke Elliott and Tony Pollard and keep that clock moving.
On the other side, Houston is a complete disaster. The Texans allowed three defense and special teams touchdowns to the Browns last week. They're now going BACK to Davis Mills after benching him earlier this season. Doesn't change anything for me, I don't think they'll be able to do anything against the Cowboys' defense.
The return of Davis Mills to the Texans starting lineup doesn't change much about the outcome. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images)
This number sits at 45.5 and the Texans have only seen one of their last six games go over that total. In fact, nine of their eleven games have stayed under that number, mostly because they can't score at all. The Texans haven't scored more than 20 points in a game since October 2nd. The Texans are 4-8 to the Under in NFL betting this season.
Dallas may score 30, but that means Houston has to score 16. And I just don't think they will.
New England Patriots -2 at Arizona Cardinals
I'm not sure if this line will get to three but it's moving toward the Patriots so go grab it now. According to VSIN, the tickets are 50/50 but the money is 70% on the Patriots. So the sharps are betting New England.
Yes, we're betting against a home underdog on a Monday night. That's not ideal. But this is basically a lost season for Arizona and the Patriots are still battling for a playoff spot. I expect to see a lot of Pats jerseys in the stands.
Arizona is coming off their bye, but the Patriots have essentially had a bye themselves. They played on Thursday night football and now are playing on Monday. We get Bill Belichick and Mac Jones with extra time to prep against Kliff Kingsbury with extra time to prep and Kyler Murray with extra time to play Call of Duty.
Plus, you know by now that I fade recency bias. Both of the Patriots last two games came in primetime and they lost both. And if you look at the Cardinals wins, they haven't beaten a single team in the Patriots tier (or higher) in EPA/play. Two of their wins have come against a pair of the league's worst teams (Rams and Panthers).
The Patriots are in a tier above Arizona and we only have to give up two points in a road game where I don't think homefield advantage is all that strong. That's enough for me.