Four NBA MLK Day Best Bets Includes Fading The Crappy Lakers
Annually, Martin Luther King Jr. Day has the 2nd-best card on the NBA calendar, behind Christmas. That might not be the case this year. The NBA is going through a "load management" crisis that rips off the fans and isn't backed by science.
This should slow me down from betting the NBA. If the players don't care then why should I? Well, NBA "load management roulette" is part of the fun and gamble. Sometimes I'll get the best of the number and other times I'll get screwed. Hopefully, by season's end, it'll even out.
That's pretty much what's happened for me betting the NBA thus far. I'm eight games above-.500 but down a tenth-of-a-unit as of Friday, January 12th. I've mentioned this before but here or there I'll forgo writing my NBA bets and just post them on Twitter (or "X"), @Geoffery_Clark.
Obviously, that's not the case here since I have four best bets queued up for ...
NBA MLK Day Action
San Antonio Spurs (+8) at Atlanta Hawks, 3:30 p.m. ET
The Hawks suck and shouldn't be -7 favorites over anyone besides the Detroit Pistons and Portland Trail Blazers. They got smacked 127-99 by the Washington Wizards at home Saturday as -8 favorites.
Atlanta has a -13.6 spread differential over the past two weeks, per CTG. The Hawks beat the Spurs 137-135 on the road November 30th. Atlanta was nowhere near covering as -6.5 road favorites and they split the "four factors".
Spurs big Victor Wembanyama shoots over Atlanta Hawks SG Garrison Mathews at the Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, Texas. (Daniel Dunn-USA TODAY Sports)
On top of that, San Antonio has been playing better recently. The Spurs are 15th in non-garbage time net rating over the past two weeks at +0.4, according CTG. They rank 26th on the season with a -9.0 non-garbage time net rating.
San Antonio is playing better because it moved PG Tre Jones into the starting lineup January 4th. Jones has a +11.8 non-garbage time net rating, per CTG. Meaning, the Spurs score 11.8 more points per 100 possessions than their opponents when Jones is on the floor.
Obviously, it doesn't hurt that San Antonio rookie big Victor Wembanyama is balling too. The only problem is Gregg Popovich not playing him enough. Wemby's per 36 averages are 24.4 PPG and 12.9 assists.
My prediction: Hawks 128, Spurs 125
Chicago Bulls at Cleveland Cavaliers (-3.5), 7 p.m. ET
Despite being down two starters for most of the season, the Cavs are crushing bad teams. They are 8-1 straight up (SU) with a +11.9 scoring margin as home favorites vs. teams with a losing record. Since 2022, Cleveland is 5-0 SU with a +13.2 scoring margin vs. the Bulls.
Moreover, Chicago has bad juju and is due for a losing skid. Bulls fans booed former general manager Jerry Krause Friday during their "Ring of Honor" Friday. Krause's widow, Thelma, representing Jerry was brought to tears and it was a truly awful moment.
Cavaliers SG Donovan Mitchell celebrates after a bucket on the Chicago Bulls in an NBA game at Rocket Mortgage FieldHouse in Cleveland Ohio. (Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports)
More importantly, the Cavaliers are playing on three days of rest. They are 3-0 SU and against the spread on games with three days of rest this season. And Cleveland is 4-1 SU with a +14.2 scoring margin this month.
Finally, I have a hunch Zach LaVine's return is "subtraction by addition" for Chicago. In fact, LaVine has a -3.3 on/off non-garbage time net rating, according to CTG.
My prediction: Cavaliers 122, Bulls 110
Miami Heat (+2) at Brooklyn Nets, 7:30 p.m. ET
This is the 2nd of a back-to-back (B2B) for the Heat who hosted the Charlotte Hornets Sunday. It's possible for Miami All-Star Jimmy Butler to make his return after an 8-game hiatus. Butler leads the Heat in on/off net rating at +10.4, per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).
Adding to that, Miami ranks 4th in 3-point percentage and Brooklyn is dead-last in opponent's wide-open 3-point attempt rate over the last six games. "Wide-open" is when a 3-point shooter has at least six feet of distance from the nearest defender.
Heat wing Jimmy Butler attacks the paint against Brooklyn Nets wing Mikal Bridges at Kaseya Center in Miami. (Megan Briggs/Getty Images)
Furthermore, the Heat have six rotation players that are shooting at least 37.7% from behind the arc. This includes Butler, SGs Duncan Robinson and Tyler Herro and SF Caleb Martin. The average 3-point percentage in the NBA is 36.6%.
Lastly, I'm banking on Miami having its Big 3 Monday: Butler, Herro and big Bam Adebayo. Butler and Herro both sat Sunday. When these guys are on the floor, the Heat are +5.7 non-garbage time net rating, per CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG).
My prediction: Heat 119, Nets 111
Oklahoma City Thunder (-105) at Los Angeles Lakers, 10:30 p.m. ET
As of 10:30 a.m. ET Monday morning, Thunder All-Star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is "questionable". But, if Thunder has all their dudes, they are clearly the "right side". Even if SGA doesn't suit up, OKC can still beat the Lakers.
Oklahoma City leads the NBA in 3-point shooting percentage and the Lakers are allowing the most wide-open 3-pointers per game over their last six outings. The Lakers upset the Thunder 129-120 in Oklahoma City Dec. 23rd.
That win avenged a Lakers' 133-110 road loss Nov. 30th. LAL's 3-point shooting in their December victory was an outlier performance. They hit 16-of-32 threes that night and OKC made only 13-of-41 from behind the arc.
LeBron James' shots to become the all-time NBA scoring leader vs. the Oklahoma City Thunder at Crypto.com Arena in Los Angeles. (Robert Gauthier/Los Angeles Times via Getty Images)
However, on the season, the Lakers are 23rd in 3-point shooting percentage and hit the fewest threes per game. Plus, the Thunder are 5th in wide-open 3-point attempts allowed over their last six games and 2nd in opponent's paint points per game (PPG).
Also, both teams like to get out in transition but Oklahoma City plays good defense in the fastbreak. For instance, the Thunder allow the 2nd-fewest fastbreak PPG and the Lakers are 25th in opponent's fastbreak PPG.
This is the Thunder's 1st visit to Los Angeles this season but they aren't afraid of the Lakers on the road. OKC upset the Lakers in LA February 2023 when LeBron James became the NBA's all-time scoring leader. I.e. the Thunder are used to peeing in the Lakers' cornflakes.