Football Weekend Betting Guide For Sept. 23-24 Featuring Huge College Slate, NFL Locks
Last week, I did a hodgepodge of bets for Saturday and Sunday en route to a 4-1 weekend. I hit two college football games, two NFL tilts and one MLB matchup. In lieu of college football's spectacular Saturday card, most of this column will be focused on NCAA top-25 action.
Keep in mind most of these plays are for entertainment purposes. Don't get me wrong, I'm putting money on all of the following picks. In your case, maybe pick and choose your favorites based on the games you can actually watch.
Alright, gamblers. Let's get gambling ...
Best bets for September 23-24
ACC 6-Point Teaser Bet Of the Week: Clemson +8.5 & North Carolina -1.5
For the uninitiated, "6-point teasers" allow you to add or subtract six points from a team's spread. You need to parlay at least two spreads together and the payouts range from -120 to -140 for 2-team teasers. As always, shop around for the best odds.
No. 4 Florida State at Clemson +8.5 (Noon ET, ABC)
This is the 1st home game Clemson has been underdogs since Week 5 in 2016. The Tigers were hosting the Bobby Petrino-coached Louisville Cardinals with Lamar Jackson. Former Clemson QB Deshaun Watson led the Tigers to a 42-36 victory as +1 underdogs.
This Clemson team isn’t as good as that one and won’t be in the mix for a national title. However, Clemson still has a ton of future NFL players.
Clemson coach Dabo Swinney talks with QB Cade Klubnik after a play vs. the Tennessee Volunteers in the Capital One Orange Bowl at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. (Eric Espada/Getty Images)
Especially in the trenches, which is the most predictive thing in football. Clemson ranks 11th nationally in line yards per snap differential and Florida State is 40th.
Give me the more talented and physical Clemson team at home through the key number of +7 and up to +8.
No. 17 North Carolina -1.5 at Pittsburgh Panthers (8 p.m. ET, ACC Network)
The 1-2 Panthers are going to be a punching bag in the ACC this season. Pitt has 12 returning starters and ranks 102nd nationally in experience, per college football analyst Phil Steele. The 3-0 Tar Heels have 17 returning starters and rank 6th nationally in experience.
UNC is a -7.5 road favorite in Pittsburgh Saturday. This opened at North Carolina -6 and was steamed into the “advantage teaser” range. The Tar Heels beat a much better Pitt team 42-24 at home last year, easily covering as -3 favorites.
North Carolina QB Drake Maye is mocked to be the 2nd QB taken in the 2024 NFL Draft. In last year’s UNC-Pitt tilt, Maye lit up the Panthers. Maye completed 34-of-44 passes for 388 yards with 5 TDs and 0 INTs. Maye is going to “make it rain” again this year vs. Pitt.
'Coach Prime Bet of the Week': No. 19 Colorado at No. 10 Oregon -21 (3:30 p.m. ET on ABC)
What a world, huh? Deion Sanders turned the s***-a** Colorado Buffaloes into "must-see TV". That said, this feels like TCU vs. Georgia in last year's national championship in that the sportsbooks are begging for Colorado money.
Colorado coach Deion Sanders and QB Shedeur Sanders after a 4th quarter TD vs. the Colorado State Rams at Folsom Field in Boulder. (Dustin Bradford/Getty Images)
I fell for it. In my most embarrassing moment since joining OutKick, I went on Dan Dakich's show and gave out TCU plus the points like a moron. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice and I'm the idiot.
Plus, Todd Furhman's Bet The Board podcast threw out a great Colorado-Oregon tidbit this week that OutKick confirms. Colorado State's head coach talked some trash before last week's game vs. the Buffaloes and Coach Prime "took it personally".
However, Oregon coach Dan Lanning talked trash about Colorado this offseason. Well, we aren't hearing Coach Prime take that personally. The reason being that Sanders knows Colorado will probably get crushed this weekend by Oregon.
BET a 0.25 unit (u) on Oregon -21 (-110) at PointsBet
The 'Great, Now Nick Saban Is Pissed' Game of the Weekend: No. 15 Ole Miss at No. 13 Alabama -6.5 (3:30 p.m. ET on CBS)
Far too many people like Ole Miss plus the points this weekend. It feels like Alabama coach Nick Saban is going to put former assistant and current Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin in his place.
I don't have the specific record for "Nick Saban vs. former assistants" but I'd guess Alabama usually wins and covers in those spots. The Crimson Tide are perennially national title contenders and Saban beats everyone.
Also, Alabama was -7 home favorites when hosting the Texas Longhorns in Week 2. This line is saying that Ole Miss is a half-point better than Texas? Eff that. This is your annual Saban Reminds Everyone Who The Man Is Game.
BET 1u on Alabama -6.5 (-110) at PointsBet
College Football Game Of The Weekend: No. 6 Ohio State at No. 9 Notre Dame +3 (7:30 p.m. ET on NBC)
This is the only college football matchup between two top-10 teams this weekend. Last year, Ohio State beat Notre Dame 21-10 in the Horseshoe but the Buckeyes failed to cover as -17 favorites.
The biggest edge I see in this game is Notre Dame QB Sam Hartman who has the 4th-best odds to win the Heisman Trophy at PointsBet. Hartman was a stud at Wake Forest before transferring to Notre Dame this offseason.
Notre Dame QB Sam Hartman drops back to pass against the NC State Wolfpack at Carter-Finley Stadium in Raleigh, North Carolina. (Lance King/Getty Images)
Through the 1st four games of the season, Hartman is 3rd nationally in QB Rating, 2nd in adjusted yards per pass, and 1st in passing TDs (13) with no INTs. Notre Dame has the offensive line to neutralize Ohio State's strength, its defensive front.
With that in mind, I don't think the Buckeyes can keep up with the Fighting Irish. This is Ohio State QB Kyle McCord's 1st "big game" and Notre Dame has NFL-caliber talent on all three levels of its defense.
BET 1u on Notre Dame +3 (-110) at PointsBet
NFL 'Lock' for Week 3: New England Patriots at New York Jets (+2.5)
'Lock' might be strong but this is a tough weekend in the NFL and something has to be my "best bet". I've already broken down this game in detail earlier this week so I won't get too far in the weeds.
The bottom line is I'm fading the Patriots. Everyone is saying "Bill Belichick vs. Zach Wilson" is an epic mismatch, which is true. But, New York's defense will be the best unit on the field Sunday.
Patriots QB Mac Jones after being tackled by the New York Jets at MetLife Stadium East Rutherford, New Jersey. (Elsa/Getty Images)
Plus, Patriots QB Mac Jones is terrible as well. The Jets sacked Jones 12 times in their two meetings last season. After last week's embarrassing loss to the Cowboys in a bad spot, I envision the Jets taking their frustrations out on New England's weak offense Sunday.
BET 1.1u on New York Jets +2.5 (-105) at PointsBet
NFL 'Get-Out-Game' of Week 3: Pittsburgh Steelers at Las Vegas Raiders (-3)
Get-Out-Game is slang for the NFL Sunday Night Football game. It could be a gambler's last chance to get even for the week or further whack their bookie. In Week 3, the Steelers visit the Raiders in Sin City.
Imma save most of my analysis for a deeper dive into this game Sunday morning. But, here's what I can tell you now: By kickoff, the Steelers will be a "public 'dog". Meaning, the public is going to bet Pittsburgh plus the points.
There's a saying in sports betting that goes "Public 'dogs get slaughtered". Typically, sportsbooks root for underdogs to cover the spread because the public loves betting favorites. Let's get on the same side as the sportsbooks and take the points with the Raiders.