Follow The Market: BET Florida Gators At Kentucky Wildcats In Week 5
I went into this No. 22 Florida Gators (3-1, 1-0 in the SEC) at the Kentucky Wildcats (4-0, 1-0) expecting to bet Kentucky. Before I saw the odds, I guessed this spread would be the Wildcats -4.5.
So when Kentucky opened as -2.5 favorites, I was like: “Whoa”. What’s even crazier is the Wildcats are pretty much a coin-flip with the Gators at PointsBet as of Thursday morning. UK's moneyline is -120 and UF's is +100.
Pro Football Focus (PFF) is reporting that more than 80% of the money is on Kentucky. My instant reaction is to figure out why my numbers are way off-market and why the line is moving away from me.
Kentucky Wildcats QB Devin Leary throws a pass against the EKU Colonels at Kroger Field in Lexington, Kentucky. (Andy Lyons/Getty Images)
Kentucky beat Florida 26-16 in The Swamp last season. The Wildcats were +10 underdogs for that game. UK had current Tennessee Titans QB Will Levis under center and UF had Indianapolis Colts QB Anthony Richardson.
Florida picked up former Wisconsin QB Graham Mertz in the transfer portal. Kentucky scooped QB Devin Leary from NC State this offseason. Leary lit it up at NC State and Mertz never lived up to his 5-star recruiting grade at Wisconsin.
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Furthermore, I was never a “Levis Guy” and Richardson is a game-breaker. I.e. my feeling entering the season was Kentucky got better at QB and Florida got worse. Evidently, the market disagrees.
Once I looked further into Mertz and Leary’s numbers I can make sense of the line movement. Per PFF, Mertz has the best adjusted completion rate in the SEC and a higher passing grade than Leary.
Florida Gators QB Graham Mertz and head coach Billy Napier before the game against the Tennessee Volunteers at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, Florida. (James Gilbert/Getty Images)
Florida 2nd-year head coach Billy Napier is making it easy for his offense. The Gators are 2nd in the SEC in standard-down success rate. Mertz has the lowest aDOT in the conference. Meaning, Mertz is dinking and dunking down the field and taking what the defense gives him.
Kentucky's weak strength of schedule is the other factor in this handicap.
According PFF, Kentucky's schedule is the 125th toughest. One of UK's opponents was an FCS team (Eastern Kentucky). The other three (Vanderbilt, Ball State, and Akron) rank 90th or worse in the F+ Ratings.
On the other hand, UF’s strength of schedule ranks 69th. The Gators lost at the 2022 Pac-12 champion Utah Utes 24-11 to open the season and beat No. 21 Tennessee 29-16 in Week 3.
However, the Wildcats are losing at the line of scrimmage vs. these weak opponents. Kentucky has a -0.34 line yards per snap differential in non-garbage time, which ranks 105th nationally.
Whereas Florida averages +0.792 line yards per snap, ranking 18th. Line yards per snap is supposedly the most predictive stat for handicapping football. UK’s poor play in the trenches explains -0.85% net success rate, which ranks 54th in the country.
Florida Gators DE Kelby Collins is pumped up vs. Tennessee at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. (Matt Pendleton-USA TODAY Sports)
Florida has a +2.1% net success rate (27th). The Wildcats have only five more 1st downs than their opponents this season (74-69). While the Gators have more than twice the 1st downs of their foes (93-46).
The Gators have gained more 1st downs than their opponent in all four games this year. This includes UF's whooping of UT and the season-opening loss at Utah where the Gators got four more 1st downs than the Utes.
Basically, the line is moving toward Gainesville because the market thinks Florida will have better offensive efficiency Saturday and Kentucky isn't as good as their record says. Who am I to disagree with the market?